Frost Advisory 9, NWS Gaylord, MI

293 
WWUS73 KAPX 120246
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1046 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099-121200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.W.0010.260512T0400Z-260512T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-Charlevoix-
1046 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 26 to 31 degrees 
  expected.

* WHERE...A portion of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other 
  sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-031-121000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0009.260512T0400Z-260512T1000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-
1046 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Benzie, Leelanau, and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive 
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

SJC

153 
WWUS73 KAPX 120711
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-099-121200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260512T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-Charlevoix-
311 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 26 to 31 degrees 
  expected.

* WHERE...A portion of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other 
  sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-031-121000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-260512T1000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-
311 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Benzie, Leelanau, and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive 
  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

SJC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
113 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing frost/freeze concerns continue tonight.

- Showers spread Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures build with rounds of showers and
  storms this weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

1027mb high centered over western Lake Superior this morning along
with anticyclonic boundary layer flow across the upper Lakes. Weak
boundary runs from Lake Erie west across Illinois/northern Missouri/
southern Nebraska; 1021mb frontal wave along the Illinois/Indiana
border.  East-west oriented short wave trough evident in water vapor
imagery dropping south across Lower Michigan this morning...not
doing much outside of a narrow band of Ac/Ci across northern Lower.
But overall heights are starting to rise across northern Ontario/
upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes (+30m 500mb height rise at APX).
More clouds to the north/east of Lake Superior associated with some
mid level isentropic upglide...also an area of high based St across
western Lake Superior/western Upper which is starting to erode into a
Sc deck.  Also getting some diurnal Sc pop across eastern Upper and
along the northern shore of Lower Michigan where surface dew points
are higher (relative to sub-zero 925mb temperatures).  Inversion
height on 1200Z APX sounding at 800mb...much lower than the 660mb 24
hours ago.

Diurnal clouds expected across eastern Upper and mostly around the
periphery of northern Lower where dew points will be higher...with
more scattered cloud cover inland.  Lower subsidence inversion
should keep vertical cloud development less than Sunday and thus a
lower probability of seeing showers pop up.  Will see lake breezes
develop today with a weak gradient in place. Afternoon highs mainly
from around 50 to the mid 50s...10 to 15 degrees below normal for 11
May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Midlevel longwave troughing with a closed low-pressure system
centered over Southern Hudson Bay continues to draw cool cP air into
the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, seasonably cool temperatures
with high pressure will continue cool and quiet weather today as
highs are expected to remain in the upper 40s to low 50s. An
embedded midlevel height disturbance lee of the Rockies will develop
a surface clipper and move into the upper Midwest this Tuesday.
Showers with a few embedded storms will persist into Wednesday
before upstream subsidence extinguishes any lingering precipitation.

The second half of the week will mirror the first half as upstream
midlevel ridging currently positioned over the Pacific will return
subsidence aloft and surface high pressure Thursday and Friday. Long
range guidance depicts a more zonal flow pattern across the CONUS
with additional waves of energy resulting in periodic chances of
precipitation this weekend into early next week. The biggest story
with the pattern change will be the retreat of cool cP air to the
north and a Pacific air mass influence over the Great Lakes Region,
causing surface temperatures to climb above climatological norms as
we head into mid May.

Forecast Details:

Frost concerns tonight... Subsidence aloft will continue surface
high pressure and quiet/dry weather today. 850mb temperatures remain
below freezing, keeping high temperatures across the CWA in the
upper 40s to low 50s through adiabatic heating processes. Afternoon
mixing heights above 5000 ft agl will cause surface dew point
temperatures to fall into the low 20s and upper teens across
interior northern lower. No fire weather concerns are expected at
this time, but lake breeze processes will lead to shifting winds and
could create a small window of potentially hazardous conditions. Dry
weather continues tonight combined with clear skies leading to
efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures falling near freezing
tonight will continue widespread frost across the Northern Lower.

Showers spread this Tuesday through Wednesday... The aforementioned
clipper will progress eastward today and make its way to the upper
Midwest by Tuesday. Moisture will eventually saturate profiles from
the top down, allowing rain to hit the surface by Wednesday
afternoon. Latest guidance continues to depict relatively stable
profiles with mostly stable lapse rates. As a result, the majority
of convection will remain to our south. A few embedded thunderstorms
remain possible Tuesday evening ahead of the cold front, but most of
the CWA should only expect rainfall of a quarter inch or less.
Upstream ridging will slowly dry conditions aloft this
Wednesday leading to some lingering drizzle with little to no
additional QPF.

Seasonably warm temperatures are expected by the end of the week
with periodic chances of precipitation... The well-advertised
troughing pattern delivering today's cool temperatures will finally
pivot eastward after the midweek clipper departs. Midlevel
heights will rise across the Midwest, resulting in temperatures
will begin to climb Thursday through the weekend with highs in
the 60s and 70s for most locations. Shortwave troughs track
through the region around the Saturday timeframe followed by
additional showers and storms early next week. Latest guidance
depicts relatively weak storms this Saturday, but higher
instability and more favorable jet dynamics could lead to some
stronger storms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR with light northerly winds. APN may be subject to wind shift
NE later this afternoon owing to the lake breeze. Winds go calm
overnight with lots of SKC ahead of the next approaching system,
which arrives Tuesday morning into the afternoon. S to SSE winds
anticipated to increase, likely becoming gusty by late morning
across the board. -SHRA chances will peak right near the end of
/ just beyond the end of the forecast period, save for MBL,
which should start to see -SHRA by late morning. In addition to
SHRA potential into the next forecast period, will have to watch
LLWS trends as well.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

UPDATE...JPB
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...HAD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1051 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-121100-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1051 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Frost/freeze condtions are likely tonight across northern Lower
Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-121100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1051 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JPB