Frost Advisory 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

554 
WWUS73 KAPX 010652
NPWAPX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
252 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-099-020000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260501T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.A.0001.260502T0400Z-260502T1300Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Charlevoix-
252 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning tonight, Sub-freezing temperatures 
  as low as 28 expected across much of northern lower Michigan. 
  Above-freezing temperatures are possible for areas near the Lake 
  Michigan and Lake Huron shorelines. For the Freeze Watch Friday 
  night, Sub-freezing temperatures expected across northern lower 
  Michigan. Low-lying areas of the interior higher terrain may see 
  temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s Friday night into 
  Saturday morning.

* WHERE...A portion of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, until 8 AM EDT this morning. For 
  the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could damage or kill crops 
  and other sensitive vegetation if left unprotected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025-031-098-020000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260501T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.A.0001.260502T0400Z-260502T1300Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
252 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 may 
  result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, Sub-freezing 
  temperatures as low as 28 possible with warmer temperatures near 
  the lakeshore.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands, and Benzie, 
  Leelanau, and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, until 8 AM EDT this morning. For 
  the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could damage or kill crops 
  and other sensitive vegetation if left unprotected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MIZ041-042-020000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-260501T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.FZ.A.0001.260502T0400Z-260502T1300Z/
Gladwin-Arenac-
252 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will 
  result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, Sub-freezing 
  temperatures as low as 29 possible with warmer temperatures near 
  Saginaw Bay.

* WHERE...Arenac and Gladwin Counties.

* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, until 8 AM EDT this morning. For 
  the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could damage or kill crops 
  and other sensitive vegetation if left unprotected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

JLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
120 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Below normal temperatures, times of light showers, clouds and
occasionally brisk/breezy winds will persist through Saturday

- High confidence in freezing temperatures overnight for inland
  locations, and frost conditions for coastal areas tonight into
  early Friday morning and Friday night into early Saturday
  morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Current water vapor satellite depicts a closed upper low with
continental moisture wrapped up within it spinning over Lk Superior.
Under this, light northwest winds are continuing to slowly increase
surface pressure over northern MI. Surface observations show
temperatures in the low to mid 30s over eastern upper, where skies
have been a little more clear and slightly drier air exists (Tds in
the high 20s). Mostly cloudy skies and slightly higher moisture in
the near surface air has kept temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s
south of the bridge so far this morning. Although skies will remain
somewhat cloudy this morning, temperatures should continue to fall
to near freezing for interior spots and the mid 30s elsewhere just
before sunrise.

As the upper closed low continues to spin over Lk Superior and
Ontario CAN today, existing elevated moisture and steep sfc to 3km
lapse rates lead to an unstable environment where showery activity
will remain possible over much of northern MI through tonight. Times
of light rain will be seen, with a stronger shower or two possibly
producing some graupel. This evening, an upper shortwave extending
from the closed low will rotated southward over the northern plains.
Ahead of it, an elevated boundary (around 850mb) will help to
continue the showery activity into the night. Surface temperatuers
will be cold enough for snow showers to remain snow near the
surface, meaning isolated snow showers could result in a dusting of
snow in some spots.

With this surge secondary surge overnight, there is high confidence
that interior temperatures will cool to freezing or slightly below.
Temperatures near the coast will likely dip into the mid 30s,
introducing frost concerns.

The upper closed low will continue to influence the region Friday,
with a renewed chance of showers under the colder temperatures aloft
but diurnal warming at the surface (thanks to our stronger sun
angles). Snow showers will slowly turn to rain showers Friday
morning, with precipitation remaining light. Afternoon temperatuers
will likely stay in the 40s for most spots.

Saturday, the upper closed low exits to the northeast as surface
high pressure continues to build in from the west. This colder
surface airmass will keep temperatures cool, with no precipitation
chances and light winds.

The next system will approach Sunday, returning southwest winds and
warmer temperatures. Widespread rain chances will eventually move
through, either Sunday or Monday. Decent spread in guidance exists
for what happens after this, if another closed upper level low
returns to the Great Lakes region or if it remains farther north in
CAN. These would result in different outcomes, one much colder than
the other.. however both solutions do indicate that the warming
period Sunday through early next week will likely be brief, with
below normal temperatures returning next week. The question of how
cold and if there will be precipitation remains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

MVFR/ VFR conditions will continue through most of the evening
with northwest winds becoming light. Winds will increase once
again Friday with gusts 15-20 knots by the afternoon. Light
shower chances through this evening with clouds trying to clear
tonight. A few shower chances possible at times early Friday
through the day (mainly across northern Lower terminals) with
some snow possibly mixing in, a window of MVFR to possibly IFR
if snow mixes in, will be possible with lowering ceilings.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...NSC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1001 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-011415-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1001 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Localized flooding will linger near rivers, lakes, and poor
drainage areas.

Widespread frost/freeze conditions are likely across northern
lower Michigan tonight, especially over interior areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Localized flooding will linger near rivers, lakes, and poor
drainage areas.

Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected each night
through at least Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-011415-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1001 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... Thursday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.