Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

721 
WGUS53 KAPX 131919
FFWAPX
MIC001-135-141830-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260414T1830Z/
/00000.U.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
319 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  A Dam Floodgate Release in...
  Western Alcona County in northern Michigan...
  East Central Oscoda County in northern Michigan...

* Until 230 PM EDT Tuesday.

* At 319 PM EDT, Dam operators reported high flows are being 
  released through the Mio Dam.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding from elevated river levels.

  SOURCE...Dam operator.

  IMPACT...Flooding of areas along the river immediately
           downstream of the dam.

* The nearest downstream town is Mio and then McKinley...located 
  about 9.5 miles from the dam. Areas downstream from the Mio Dam 
  along the Au Sable River should be prepared for flooding.

Flooding is occurring along the Au Sable River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are in low lying areas below the Mio Dam you should move to 
higher ground immediately. Do not attempt to drive across flooded 
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4466 8412 4467 8412 4466 8411 4466 8407
      4467 8402 4465 8398 4463 8384 4457 8379
      4456 8381 4456 8383 4460 8388 4462 8394
      4465 8403 4465 8411

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

MSB

633 
WGUS73 KAPX 141713
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
113 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MIC001-135-141723-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260414T1830Z/
/00000.U.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alcona MI-Oscoda MI-
113 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WESTERN ALCONA AND EAST 
CENTRAL OSCODA COUNTIES...

A rapid rise of water along the river is no longer expected in the 
immediate future, and therefore the warning is cancelled. However, 
flooding in the vicinity of the river and other localized portions 
of the counties may continue for several days. Additional localized 
flooding remains possible through the remainder of the week with 
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Please see the ongoing Flood 
Watch for more details.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT Wednesday for 
portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4466 8412 4467 8412 4466 8411 4466 8407
      4467 8402 4465 8398 4463 8384 4457 8379
      4456 8381 4456 8383 4460 8388 4462 8394
      4465 8403 4465 8411

$$

Cornish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding concerns through the week as an active pattern
  consisting of numerous rain chances overlapped saturated soils
  and / or melting snowpack continues.

- A brief reprieve from rain through the day today with peeks of
  sun in the afternoon. Large temperature contrast with highs
  near 70 close to Saginaw Bay and in the 40s across parts of
  eastern upper.

- Another series of showers and thunderstorms tonight into
  Tuesday, and again Tuesday night. Downpours will accompany
  thunderstorms. Potential for severe thunderstorms later
  Monday night and again Tuesday night.

- Additional rounds of rain expected Wednesday into Thursday,
  and again Friday night into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Active pattern continues through the forecast period, with the setup
remaining the same- longwave trough has established itself across
the western CONUS, with ejecting Pacific waves riding southern
stream flow from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Ridging
anchored across the eastern seaboard continues to promote a deep
moisture connection from the Gulf, which will allow for repeated
rounds of rain / convection to impact northern Michigan through the
week... which is only going to prolong the ongoing hydro / flooding
situation ongoing across this region.

Details:

Our first big rain event from this pattern will continue to wind
down as we head into the morning, with deeper saturation slowly
shifting north and east with its attendant shortwave / mid-level
mesolow. Most efficient rainfall will occur across a narrow corridor
from roughly Cadillac to Alpena (up to an additional localized 0.50"
of rainfall through the morning across the region). This corridor
will be subject to additional flooding concerns (on top of the
already ongoing hydrological situation) through much of the day
tomorrow as streams undergo their hydrological responses. Rain
should clear out by mid morning, with some peeks of sun building by
later in the day. A frontal boundary stalled out across the region
leads to temperature contrasts across the area... warm and humid
(60s and 70s) south and 40s to near 50 in eastern upper for Monday.

The reprieve will be quite short lived as the next shortwave and low
level jet (LLJ) intrusion draws in yet another moisture rich airmass
to the region. Vigorous convection anticipated to develop over
Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon into the evening, with
the stalled frontal boundary being the focus for the most intense
activity. Plentiful instability and shear may be just enough to
allow severe storms capable of producing large hail to materialize
late this evening into tonight, on top of the heavy rain threat this
will bring. The focus for severe storms and the heaviest rains
likely favors areas south of M-32 at this juncture. In this area, it
will be possible to observe an additional 1.50 to 3.00"+ of rainfall
Monday night into Tuesday as echo training permits repeated
downpours within an airmass constituted of PWATs exceeding 1.25. As
such, will have to watch this area very closely... we already have
dams with open gates on the Manistee (Tippy Dam) and Au Sable (Mio
Dam) rivers... and most of these rivers are set to approach or have
already exceeded their maximum heights as it is. Adding this rain on
top of what is already occurring may create serious issues in areas
that flood easily downstream of these dams in what looks to be the
inevitable event that they will continue to release water. As far as
the Cheboygan basin goes... additional rain is anticipated from this
outburst there too... If current trends hold, most of that basin
will endure 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain... but the headwaters of the
Sturgeon and Black River in Otsego and Montmorency counties may see
a general 0.75 to 1.50"... all of which will quickly flow into the
water-logged areas of the basin. Certainly a lot to monitor in the
next 36 hours, with even more on the horizon.

Another wave is set to pass through Tuesday night along that
stationary front, which will drive another vigorous convective
response from the Quad Cities , IL / IA area north and east into
Michigan. The northward extent of this response is in question...
but in the event that the stalled front remains north enough to
permit very warm surface temperatures in the southern portion of the
CWA (drum up instability), we could be dealing with another outburst
of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms over an area that doesn't
need it. Perhaps another brief break in the action for Wednesday,
but long term guidance wants to continue to initiate convection
along that stalled frontal boundary Wednesday evening into Thursday
with another LLJ intrusion. Should trend dry later Thursday into
Friday... with more rain to follow on Saturday. With this, it should
be stated that it will be entirely possible for us to be contending
with hydro / flooding concerns over the next week, perhaps longer.
This certainly could be a long stretch for northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

More MVFR to IFR conditions expected this morning under low
cigs and areas of mist/fg. Attendant area of showers will
gradually end from west to east heading through early this
morning. Some improvement this afternoon as cigs rise and
scatter out. Next round of showers/embedded thunderstorms and
increasingly lower cigs set to arrive later this evening.
Southwest winds will be a bit gusty this morning, with winds
veering to northwest and decreasing this afternoon. Light winds
this evening. Low level wind shear comes to an end early this
morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...MSB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-140245-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1045 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Severe weather
is not anticipated at this time, but any storms may produce
downpours.

Heavy rainfall may exacerbate high flows on area watersheds. Localized
flooding along inland lakeshores, riverbanks, and other low-lying
areas is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall at
times Monday evening through Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are
possible, with primary hazards being large hail and gusty winds.

Heavy rainfall may exacerbate high flows on area watersheds. Localized
flooding along inland lakeshores, riverbanks, and other low-lying
areas is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-140245-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1045 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Severe weather
is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday evening through Tuesday
across all nearshore waters of northern lower and eastern upper
Michigan. Severe storms are possible, with the primary hazards
being large hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.