Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Gaylord, MI

891 
WGUS73 KAPX 312329
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MIC001-007-010130-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260801T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alcona MI-Alpena MI-
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALCONA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES...

At 729 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 0.5 inches in 1 hour. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Alpena, Ossineke, Hubbard Lake, Ossineke Township, Spruce, Spratt, 
  Lost Lake Woods and Devils Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4508 8337 4501 8337 4498 8337 4496 8339
      4495 8339 4494 8337 4477 8336 4479 8381
      4504 8383

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25-0.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

FEF

680 
WGUS73 KAPX 010054
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
854 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MIC001-007-010104-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260801T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alcona MI-Alpena MI-
854 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN ALCONA AND 
SOUTHWESTERN ALPENA COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended, and flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4508 8337 4501 8337 4498 8337 4496 8339
      4495 8339 4494 8337 4477 8336 4479 8381
      4504 8383

$$

JZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain tonight/Saturday as a cool-season cyclone passes
  south of the Great Lakes. Heavy rain threat parts of eastern
  Upper/northeast Lower this evening.

- Drying out from north to south Sunday (though could be a slower process
  than we would like).

- Rain chances return Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad upper ridge encompasses roughly the
southern half of the CONUS...save for a long wave trough that runs
along the east coast.  A short wave trough coming over the top of
the ridge and into the Midwest today will be a feature of interest
heading into the weekend...a couple of smaller PV anomalies also
coming over the top of the ridge across Idaho/Montana.  Low
amplitude westerly flow across much of Canada...emanating from a
long wave trough off the British Columbia coast. Anticyclonic upper
level flow across the Great Lakes today with broadly difluent flow
ahead of the Midwest short wave trough; also ahead of this trough is
a narrow axis of deep layer moisture (precipitable water at or above
2.00 inches spanning the Mississippi Valley).  Mid level deformation
zone extends from eastern North Dakota/northern Minnesota/northwest
Ontario.  At the surface...1006mb low along the Iowa/Minnesota
border with a warm front extending southeast across Iowa and along
the Mississippi River.  Cold front was north of Lake Superior into
northern Minnesota.  Broad high pressure across the Ohio Valley and
mid Atlantic region with several high centers including a 1016m high
bubble over southern Lower Michigan.

Cold advection into the backside of the upper Midwest short wave
trough suggests a continued digging and strengthening over the next
24 hours...approaching a -3 sigma 500mb height anomaly across the
mid Mississippi Valley.  This trough will slowly meander across the
Ohio Valley this weekend...what happens beyond that is uncertain.
Will this system track into the mid Atlantic Monday...will it hang
on longer (slower is usually the better way to go)...or does the
trough split and a piece gets left behind to drift into the
southeast states early next week?  Questions about the evolution of
this feature may not have much impact on the upper Lakes...provided
we can get some height rises/surface high pressure into the region
by Tuesday and the "piece gets left behind to drift into the
southeast states" idea mentioned above gets slingshotted back in our
direction instead.  Regardless...the trend should be toward more
unsettle weather by midweek...as the trough currently over the
northeast Pacific moves inland and takes up residence across central
Canada. This should send height falls and a cold front into the
Great Lakes around Wednesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Widespread rain tonight/Saturday as a cool-season cyclone passes
south of the Great Lakes.  Heavy rain threat parts of eastern
Upper/northeast Lower this evening: Upstream system over southern
Minnesota much more reminiscent of something we will be more
familiar with in a couple of months rather than something we
typically see in late July.  But it is there...with a nice
deformation precipitation shield across southern Minnesota/northern
Wisconsin...and a warm frontal rain band spreading northeast across
southern Wisconsin. Meanwhile...at the onset this afternoon things
are just starting to bubble up on the cloud front...with the Lake
Huron breeze having kicked in north of Thunder Bay.  Across eastern
Upper an uncapped MLCAPE 1000+J/kg... with lake breeze convection
underway from Marquette to the Soo. Combination of afternoon
convection...eastward extension of precipitation band across
northern Wisconsin/western Upper...and the main precipitation shield
wrapping around the upper midwest cyclone will be the impetus for
rain across northern Michigan tonight and Saturday.  Given high
precipitable water...K indices above 35...and light cloud layer flow
there is concern for slow moving heavy downpours through midnight
across eastern Upper and parts of northeast Lower and may carry an
explicit heavy rain wording to cover this.  A lot of moisture around
Saturday but not a lot of forcing...though southern portions of the
forecast area will still be close to the main deformation zone.

Drying out from north to south Sunday (though could be a slower
process than we would like):  Rain chances should start to come to
an end across eastern Upper and parts of northwest Lower Saturday
night...but will continue into Sunday for about the southeast third
of the forecast area.  Slow moving deformation zones can be stubborn
in clearing out...so later forecasts may trend toward hanging onto
some rain chances over (at least) northeast Lower for a bit longer.
But expecting things to dry out all areas by Monday.

Rain chances return Wednesday: Height falls and a resultant cold
front looks to cross the upper Lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday which
will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Outlook
beyond Wednesday is a bit more uncertain...but removed a lot of
spotty slight chance PoPs for Thursday/Friday for the time being.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Broad expectation is for -SHRA/TSRA to develop this afternoon and
hang on mainly as -SHRA/RA and BR/FG this evening into tonight, esp
for CIU/PLN. Think there could be a heavier band of rain tonight
somewhere near the Straits of Mackinac, but otherwise not confident
in placement of this. Additionally, think heavier rain may stay
south or scrape MBL/TVC tonight; if this occurs, winds could end up
more easterly than expected overnight. Prevailing VFR trending down
to MVFR/IFR thru the night and LIFR possible, esp for CIU. Winds
generally light/vrb with lake breezes/land breezes possible, but
MBL/TVC could become more NE and increase toward the end of the TAF
period and beyond.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...FEF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
539 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Rain             2 W Ossineke            44.90N 83.48W
07/31/2026  M2.22 Inch       Alpena             MI   Trained Spotter

            Spotter called to report rain gauge reading.
            This fell in a little over 2 hours.

&&

ELD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
544 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     Rain             1 NNE Mio               44.67N 84.12W
07/31/2026  E1.10 Inch       Oscoda             MI   Public

            MIO RAWs.

&&

ELD