Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026

Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Gaylord, MI

June 25, 2026Roscommon County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at Jun 25, 2026, 3:52 PM EDT for Roscommon County, Michigan. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 25, 2026, 3:52 PM EDT (19:52 UTC)
Expired: Jun 25, 2026, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Gaylord, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Roscommon County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 924 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

490 
WGUS53 KAPX 251952
FFWAPX
MIC143-252200-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0014.260625T1952Z-260625T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East Central Roscommon County in northern Michigan...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is possible or 
  expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, highways,
           streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
           and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  St. Helen and Lake St. Helen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4436 8459 4439 8446 4433 8443 4431 8448
      4430 8454 4430 8458 4432 8462

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JLD

2 follow-up statements

261 
WGUS73 KAPX 252043
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
443 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIC143-252200-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260625T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roscommon MI-
443 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING 
FOR EAST CENTRAL ROSCOMMON COUNTY...

At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.25 inches are possible 
in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, highways,
         streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
         and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  St. Helen and Lake St. Helen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4431 8448 4430 8454 4430 8458 4432 8462
      4436 8459 4439 8446 4433 8443

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JLD

781 
WGUS73 KAPX 252157
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
557 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIC143-252207-
/O.EXP.KAPX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-260625T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Roscommon MI-
557 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST 
CENTRAL ROSCOMMON COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heaviest rain has ended, although a 
shower or storm will be possible in the near term. Please continue 
to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4432 8462 4436 8459 4439 8446 4433 8443
      4431 8448 4430 8454 4430 8458

$$

JLD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 25, 2:07 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Scattered showers/storms this afternoon/evening. A few strong to severe storms possible.
Quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.
Much warmer, more humid, and potentially active next week.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 2:07 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
207 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms this afternoon/evening. A few strong
  to severe storms possible.

- Quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

- Much warmer, more humid, and potentially active next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Shortwave troughing is currently shifting
east across the Great Lakes region, set to depart off to the east
tonight. At the surface, ~1012mb low pressure sits across central MI
early this afternoon with morning convection largely off to the
east. Additional isolated to scattered development underway across
parts of the forecast area, progged to continue through this
evening.

Heights begin to rise Friday into the weekend before amplified/
impressive ridging builds over the nation's midsection early next
week. While surface high pressure is likely to dominate Friday
through the weekend, potential grows next week for the return of
occasionally active weather.

Forecast Details: Primary focus in the near term revolves around
thunderstorm potential this afternoon through this evening, with a
Marginal Risk for severe storms. Latest analysis reveals 500-750
J/kg MLCAPE near and south of the M-72 corridor and up to ~250 J/kg
as far north as the Tip of the Mitt. Instability expected to persist
or increase slightly over the next few hours as more sun prevails
across sections of northern lower. Up to 1,000-1,250 J/kg
anticipated across far southeastern reaches of the forecast area
near Saginaw Bay by mid-afternoon. Progged deep layer shear of 25-30
kts maximized near and south of M-32 through the remainder of the
day. Latest trends still favor additional isolated to scattered
storm development across sections of northern lower (already
underway near and west of Grand Traverse Bay), some of which may be
strong to severe with primarily a large hail and locally damaging
wind threat. Locally heavy rain a good bet in any storms, especially
given slow cell movement. Shower/storm threat expected to wane
toward or just after sunset this evening.

Tranquil conditions anticipated Friday through the weekend with
gradually warming temperatures each day...into the low to mid 80s by
Sunday. Heat/humidity build Monday onward with growing potential (60-
80+%) for 90+ degree high temps across parts of the forecast area,
especially Tuesday onward. Some concern around potential convection
upstream and locally that may limit the higher end temp
potential, but certainly not enough confidence in that at this
point to deviate from favored blended temperature guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

SCT to BKN MVFR cloud cover will continue this afternoon as low
pressure progresses eastward. Additional redevelopment of -TSRA
remains possible across parts of the region that could result
in temporary flight impacts, especially at KAPN. Cloud cover
redevelops overnight at KAPN, KPLN, and KCIU with CIG's lowering
to IFR and LIFR by early Friday morning. Cloud cover then
diminishes this Friday, returning all sites to VFR by the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...SJC

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 10:53 AM EDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1053 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ023-024-029-030-251545-
Montmorency MI-Alcona MI-Alpena MI-Oscoda MI-
1053 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ALPENA...
NORTHWESTERN ALCONA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTMORENCY AND NORTHEASTERN
OSCODA COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EDT...

At 1052 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loud Township, or 10 miles south of Atlanta, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Comins, Fletcher Pond, Lockwood Lake, Loud Township, and Mitchell
Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4475 8420 4493 8423 4500 8379 4473 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1452Z 262DEG 17KT 4485 8411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SJC

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 1:26 PM EDT, 2 hours 26 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
126 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ032-033-251800-
Missaukee MI-Wexford MI-
126 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WEXFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN MISSAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 126 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manton, or 12 miles northwest of Lake City, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Manton, and Morey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4443 8544 4451 8544 4451 8507 4429 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 283DEG 11KT 4446 8539

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 1:39 PM EDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
139 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ032-033-251815-
Missaukee MI-Wexford MI-
139 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN WEXFORD AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

At 139 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Meauwataka, or 10 miles northwest of Cadillac, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cadillac, Manton, Jennings, and Meauwataka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 8558 4445 8548 4434 8523 4420 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 299DEG 16KT 4438 8550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 2:35 PM EDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
235 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ028-029-034-035-251915-
Roscommon MI-Ogemaw MI-Oscoda MI-Crawford MI-
235 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...
NORTHWESTERN OGEMAW...NORTHEASTERN ROSCOMMON AND SOUTHWESTERN OSCODA
COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
South Branch Township, or near Roscommon, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  South Branch Township around 240 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Foster Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 8458 4461 8455 4464 8418 4440 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 282DEG 13KT 4454 8452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SJC

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 2:37 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ033-034-251900-
Roscommon MI-Missaukee MI-
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ROSCOMMON AND
SOUTHEASTERN MISSAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moddersville, or 9 miles west of Houghton Lake, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Houghton Lake and Merritt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4423 8499 4432 8502 4445 8473 4420 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 268DEG 15KT 4428 8495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special weather statement, Jun 25, 3:17 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MIZ034-035-251945-
Roscommon MI-Ogemaw MI-
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OGEMAW AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROSCOMMON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Prudenville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  St. Helen, Lake St. Helen, Twin Lakes Area, and Nester Township
  around 320 PM EDT.
  Bowmanville around 335 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 8470 4438 8467 4440 8425 4416 8426
      4416 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 274DEG 29KT 4429 8458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

SJC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 25, 5:35 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Antrim, Crawford, Kalkaska, Otsego	7 hr
Jun 25, 6:21 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Grand Traverse	39 min
Jun 25, 7:24 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Alcona, Alpena	7 hr
Jun 25, 8:01 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Antrim, Charlevoix	3 hr
Jun 25, 8:49 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Antrim, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Otsego	3 hr
Jun 25, 10:20 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Montmorency, Otsego	3 hr
Jun 25, 10:25 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Alcona, Alpena	4 hr
Jun 25, 10:34 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	APX	Alcona, Alpena	3 hr
Jun 25, 10:53 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Montmorency	52 min
Jun 25, 11:58 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency	3 hr
Jun 25, 1:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Missaukee	34 min
Jun 25, 1:39 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Wexford	36 min
Jun 25, 2:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Crawford	40 min
Jun 25, 2:37 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Missaukee	23 min
Jun 25, 3:15 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Crawford, Roscommon	3 hr
Jun 25, 3:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	APX	Roscommon	28 min
Jun 25, 4:01 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Gladwin	3 hr
Jun 25, 5:51 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Montmorency	114 min
Jun 25, 6:13 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	APX	Alcona, Alpena	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2026 Every flash flood warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.