Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1202 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Ongoing widespread historic flooding to continue, with some
 improvements possible in areas that see little to no rainfall
 over the next 36 hours.

-Additional shower and thunder potential this afternoon and
 evening, mainly near Saginaw Bay where localized 1"+ amounts
 are possible.

-Following a dry break Friday, a larger system is set to move in
 Friday night through Saturday, bringing more shower / thunder
 potential to ALL of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.

-Trending sharply colder Saturday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Weak troughing currently lifting over the Great Lakes today will
work east with time tonight. Ridging over the Midwest will slide
overhead by Friday, building in surface high pressure across the
region for a brief time to end the week. Strong, expansive troughing
will churn across much of the northern CONUS, including the Great
Lakes, through this weekend. Impressive forcing will help deepen a
cyclone that is set to track from the central Great Plains into
Ontario by late Friday night/Saturday morning. The attendant cold
front is expected to swing across the area in the early Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon time frame. High pressure looks to
build in behind this system to start next week.

Forecast Details:

Showers across parts of northern lower Michigan will continue to
work east over Lake Huron early this afternoon, making way for
additional chances for showers and storms down near Saginaw Bay
later this afternoon and early evening. These showers/storms bring
additional concerns across flood-impacted portions of our southeast
counties. While forecast totals range around 0.25" to 0.5", there's
potential for localized amounts of 1"+ of additional rainfall in a
short time later today should any heavy showers/storms form across
this area.

Rain chances end this evening as high pressure builds in, making for
a pleasant day and a much-welcomed break from rain chances on
Friday. Sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and low 70s are in
store, except for cooler readings along the Lake Huron shoreline.
Unfortunately, shower/storm chances return Friday evening into
Saturday ahead of the aforementioned cold front. An additional 0.25"
to 0.5" is forecast for many areas of northern Michigan with the
potential yet again for amounts of 1"+, especially with any strong
storms that track across Lake Michigan from Wisconsin. This portion
of the forecast is being closely monitored given ongoing flooding
that will last for many days ahead.

As the cold front swings through Saturday, temperatures will turn
sharply colder by the afternoon and evening -- down into the 20s and
30s by Saturday night and lasting into Monday. Given gusty northwest
winds, wind chills temperatures are expected to drop into the teens
for most of the day on Sunday -- something to keep in mind for flood
recovery efforts this weekend. Looking into next week, precipitation
chances appear low through the majority of the week at this time,
which would be a much-needed break across the area should this
materialize.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

LIFR grunge continues this morning with light/vrb winds and fog.
Scattered rain showers possible thru midday esp for TVC, MBL, APN
with slight improvements to IFR possible as winds turn subtly N/NW
this afternoon. Lake breezes possible at APN/TVC. Expect cigs to SCT
at CIU and PLN around 16-19z with largely MVFR-VFR conditions this
afternoon, and closer to 19-21z for TVC/APN; will be slowest to
reach MBL. Things likely to fog in to LIFR conditions again tonight
as winds go light/vrb again. Winds will eventually turn around to
the S/SE and increase to 5-10kts toward 12z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...FEF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
140 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-171745-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
140 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Ongoing flooding will continue across many parts of northern
Michigan through tonight and beyond. Please see the latest Flood
Watches and Warnings for the latest information.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times through
this evening. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Ongoing flooding is expected to continue across parts of northern
Michigan over the next several days as water levels slowly come
down. Please see the latest Flood Watches and Warnings for more
information.

Additional showers and storms will be possible again Friday night
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-171745-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
140 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times through
this evening over the Lake Huron nearshore waters near Saginaw Bay.
Severe storms are not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional showers and storms will be possible Friday night into
Saturday across all nearshore waters off northern lower and
eastern upper Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.