Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2026
Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at Apr 12, 2026, 3:59 PM EDT for Alcona County, Oscoda County, Michigan. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 12, 2026, 3:59 PM EDT (19:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 13, 2026, 3:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Unknown
Counties Alcona County, MI, Oscoda County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 460 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 564 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 621 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
060
WGUS53 KAPX 121959
FFWAPX
MIC001-135-130745-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0001.260412T1959Z-260413T0745Z/
/00000.U.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
A Dam Floodgate Release in...
Western Alcona County in northern Michigan...
East Central Oscoda County in northern Michigan...
* Until 345 AM EDT Monday.
* At 359 PM EDT, dam operators reported the floodgates on the Mio
Dam were opened causing flash flooding downstream on the Au Sable
River.
HAZARD...Flash flooding from a dam high flow release.
SOURCE...Dam operator.
IMPACT...Flooding of areas along the river immediately
downstream of the dam.
* The nearest downstream town is McKinley...located about 9.5 miles
from the dam. Areas downstream from the Mio Dam along the Au Sable
River should be prepared for flooding.
Flooding is occurring along the Au Sable River.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you are in low lying areas below the Mio Dam you should move to
higher ground immediately. Do not attempt to drive across flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4465 8403 4465 8411 4466 8412 4467 8412
4466 8411 4466 8407 4467 8402 4465 8398
4463 8384 4457 8379 4456 8381 4456 8383
4460 8388 4462 8394
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
$$
MSB1 follow-up statement
475
WGUS73 KAPX 130129
FFSAPX
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
929 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
MIC001-135-130745-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260413T0745Z/
/00000.U.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alcona MI-Oscoda MI-
929 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FLOODGATE RELEASE REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 345 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WESTERN ALCONA AND EAST CENTRAL OSCODA
COUNTIES...
At 929 PM EDT, Dam operators reported high flows are being released
through Mio Dam. This may result in flash flooding downstream on the
Au Sable River.
HAZARD...Flash flooding from a dam high flow release.
SOURCE...Dam operator.
IMPACT...Flooding of areas along the river immediately downstream
of the dam.
The nearest downstream town is McKinley...located about 9.5 miles
from the dam. Areas downstream from the Mio Dam along the Au Sable
River should be prepared for flooding.
Flooding is occurring along the Au Sable River.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you are in low lying areas below the Mio Dam you should move to
higher ground immediately. Do not attempt to drive across flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4465 8403 4465 8411 4466 8412 4467 8412
4466 8411 4466 8407 4467 8402 4465 8398
4463 8384 4457 8379 4456 8381 4456 8383
4460 8388 4462 8394
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
$$
MSBWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 12, 3:54 PM EDT, 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Flooding concerns through at least midweek, particularly across eastern upper and far northern lower Michigan where snowpack meltoff may agitate already elevated water levels.
- Rain and thunder, heavy at times, to continue overspreading the region and lasting through tonight.
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Heavy rain possible again. Potential for severe thunderstorms later Monday night and again Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the week, trending back below normal next weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 12, 3:54 PM EDT, 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
354 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flooding concerns through at least midweek, particularly
across eastern upper and far northern lower Michigan where
snowpack meltoff may agitate already elevated water levels.
- Rain and thunder, heavy at times, to continue overspreading
the region and lasting through tonight.
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into
Tuesday. Heavy rain possible again. Potential for severe
thunderstorms later Monday night and again Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the week, trending back
below normal next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Pattern Synopsis: The majority of the forecast period continues to
be dominated by a relatively shallow trof west/ridge east
configuration across much of North America. The flow is split at
times, though when this occurs forecast area is still under the
influence of the warmer southern branch. The southwesterly upstream
flow this week will transport an unseasonably moist air mass into
the area, with embedded disturbances bringing periodic chances of
showers and some thunderstorms.
Forecast Details: Impressive rainfall has been falling across much
of northern Lower Michigan for most of the day and continues at this
hour. Water vapor imagery shows a good tropical connection of
moisture streaming up from the Gulf in deep southerly flow.
Precipitable water values over the area are an unseasonably moist
1.5" or so. There should be a brief lull in the heavier rainfall
this evening as a disturbance departs the area, but an MCV moving
out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley will be quickly on its heels
tonight.
A bigger lull in the shower/storm risk is anticipated for most of
Monday/Monday evening as short wave ridging builds across the area.
Intense convection is expected to develop over the upper Midwest
late Monday, moving across the forecast area in a weaker state after
midnight Monday night/early Tuesday. That being said, significant
elevated instability will have stronger storms capable of producing
severe hail. This convection will likely push a stalled
southwest/northeast oriented frontal boundary southeast into Lower
Michigan which will serve as a focus for additional convection later
Wednesday into Thursday.
Another break in the rainfall threat is anticipated Thursday night
into Friday. The next disturbance arrives by Saturday with a renewed
risk for widespread rainfall.
Expanded Flood Watch to encompass the entire forecast area into
Wednesday morning. This is to account for the rain that has just
fallen as well as what is expected into midweek. There have already
been reports of localized flooding and river/stream levels are
notably rising across much of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Rain showers will continue through the night with a brief lull
in activity Monday. Mixed bag of conditions currently ranging
from VFR to LIFR are expected to continue through most of the
period with showers and embedded thunderstorms making conditions
variable. General trends point towards perhaps bettering
conditions for northern Lower terminals this evening ahead of an
additional wave of showers to pass through. Southerly winds
will increase through this evening into tonight with gusts 25-35
knots tonight. Winds will then decrease heading into Monday
morning remaining somewhat breezy to the end of the period
(gusts 15-20 knots). LLWS looks to continue into tonight.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095-096-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.
&&
DISCUSSION...PBB
AVIATION...NSCHazardous weather outlook, Apr 12, 12:35 PM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1235 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-131645- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 1235 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but any storms may produce downpours. Heavy rainfall may exacerbate high flows on area watersheds. Localized flooding along inland lakeshores, riverbanks, and other low-lying areas is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall at times Monday evening through Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are possible, with primary hazards being large hail and gusty winds. Heavy rainfall may exacerbate high flows on area watersheds. Localized flooding along inland lakeshores, riverbanks, and other low-lying areas is possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-131645- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 1235 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday evening through Tuesday across all nearshore waters of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. Severe storms are possible, with the primary hazards being large hail and gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 12, 11:57 AM EDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1157 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1122 AM Rain 1 SSW Gaylord 45.02N 84.68W
04/12/2026 M1.37 Inch Otsego MI ASOS
ASOS station KGLR Gaylord - Otsego County
Airport.
1120 AM Rain 2 SE Traverse City 44.73N 85.57W
04/12/2026 M1.34 Inch Grand Traverse MI ASOS
ASOS station KTVC Traverse City - Cherry
Capital Airport.
0830 AM Rain 1 SSE Mio 44.65N 84.12W
04/12/2026 M1.26 Inch Oscoda MI CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station MYOM4 Mio WWTP.
0800 AM Rain 2 SE West Branch 44.25N 84.20W
04/12/2026 M1.26 Inch Ogemaw MI CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station WBRM4 West Branch 3
SE.
0900 AM Rain 6 WNW Sid Town 44.46N 83.72W
04/12/2026 M1.20 Inch Iosco MI CO-OP Observer
CO-OP Observer station HALM4 Hale Loud Dam.
0800 AM Rain 1 NW Elk Rapids 44.90N 85.41W
04/12/2026 M1.17 Inch Antrim MI Cocorahs
Cocorahs station MI-AT-14 Elk Rapids.
&&Local storm report, Apr 12, 2:11 PM EDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0206 PM Rain NWS Gaylord 44.91N 84.72W
04/12/2026 M2.13 Inch Otsego MI Public
6 hour total taken at the 18Z observation
(8am-2pm), marking a 2.94 inch event total
thus far.
&&Local storm report, Apr 12, 2:58 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0257 PM Rain 1 N Wellston 44.23N 85.95W
04/12/2026 M2.91 Inch Manistee MI Trained Spotter
Total since 5 am this morning.
&&
MSBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 11:05 PM EDT | Gale Watch | APX | 13 hr | |
| Apr 11, 11:05 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | APX | 36 hr | |
| Apr 12, 12:19 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | APX | Arenac | 7 days |
| Apr 12, 12:22 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | APX | Wexford | 13 days |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2026Every flash flood warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.