Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- More chances at active weather are expected this evening into
  the overnight with potential to see strong to severe
  thunderstorms.

- Hotter and drier conditions are expected this weekend, which can
  lead to elevated fire weather concerns for a majority of the
  Panhandles.

- Chances of storms are expected to return for the Western
  Panhandles next week with these chances increasing and spreading
  towards the end of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The MCV that started our activity overnight and early this
morning seems to have left a pocket of subsidence over the
Panhandles, which has seen any new starts across our east fail
during this early afternoon. However, just to our east multiple
storms are continuing to develop and push across Western and
Central Oklahoma. These storms may be key in our attempts at new
activity across our southeast and south-central later today as
their outflow boundaries may provide just enough lift to get past
the subsidence. Presently majority of the CAMs do not favor such
an outcome, with the lone exception being the NAM3km. However,
present runs of the NAM3km, while a bit overzealous, have had a
better handle on the overnight and present ongoing activity then
most of the other model runs. Given this have decided to keep some
low 20 to 30 percent chances of storms present across the eastern
and central Panhandles for this afternoon into tonight.
Otherwise, the more likely scenario is still focused on the
Western Texas Panhandle late this evening into the overnight where
we can see storms once again move off the Southern Front Range
and into that area.

Now in terms of possible impacts from these storms, present CAMS
do present around 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with along
side pockets of 20 to 30 kt of effective bulk wind shear. These
values, if they can be reached, could allow for strong to severe
storms to develop and even organize long enough of to produce hail
up to an inch and localized heavy rainfall. However, the present
DCAPE values and expected mean winds suggest that damaging winds
gust will be the more likely threat. Presently most CAMs are
seeing DCAPE values average around 1800 J/kg with mean winds
upwards of 15 kts. This combinations can easily see a storm,
strong or not, produce an outflow gust capable of reaching 75 mph.
As for Saturday, present model agreement still sees good southerly
to southwesterly flow pushing in at the 850mb level. This flow
will look to amplify our heat and overall dry conditions for the
day resulting in most of the Panhandles reaching the triple-digit
mark. Unfortunately, this flow will also see some breezier winds
down at the surface, which will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns across the Panhandles for the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

For the start of this extended period, model agreement see the
upper-level high pressure system stay situated across the Western
United States. For the Panhandles, the positioning of the high
puts us in a sort of mixed bag situation where we stay hot and
relatively dry, but have enough a mean wind to give storms the
ability to move in from mountains of Eastern New Mexico. The
exception for this pattern will be seen this Sunday, however, as
low-level southerly flow looks to bring in drier air result in
hotter and drier conditions being more prominent for the day. This
flow will also lead to breezier conditions at the surface, which
can then lead to some elevated fire weather concerns during the
afternoon period. However moving into next week, does see the
chances of storms return once again across the Western Panhandles
thanks to flow at the mid-level returning to a more westerly
direction. These chances do look to further grow and spread
towards the end of next week, with many models actually seeing the
high start to weaken and become disorganized across the Southern
Untied States. Either way, look for temperatures to keep hot with
90s to triple-digits likely every day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The
expection will be during the passage of a thunderstorm which can
produce MVFR to IFR visibilities from heavy rain. These storms are
occurring mainly in the western to southern panhandles this
evening. KDHT has the best chances to see thunderstorms near or
on station so it is reflected within the TAF. The chances are a
little less for KAMA so the thunderstorms were not reflected in
the TAF at this time. There is a low chance for these storms to
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being
the main threats. It does remain hot across the panhandles today
and Saturday which is causing increased density altitudes.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
214 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-080715-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
214 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present this evening
and overnight, with the most likely area being the Western Texas
Panhandles. Currently the main threat will be damaging wind gusts,
though large hail and localized flooding can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Breezy southerly to southwesterly winds are expected to work with
present hot and dry conditions resulting in elevated fire weather
concerns this weekend. Chances of storms return next week with
chances increasing and becoming more widespread as we near the
end of it.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
558 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

TXZ011-072330-
Oldham TX-
558 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Adrian, or 13 miles west of Vega, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Adrian.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 17 and 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 10268 3544 10263 3533 10256 3519 10264
      3519 10270 3532 10285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 043DEG 7KT 3531 10265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

TXZ011-080030-
Oldham TX-
656 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Adrian, or 18 miles southeast of Nara Visa, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Oldham
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 10304 3554 10280 3537 10273 3521 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 066DEG 13KT 3543 10286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

TXZ011-080030-
Oldham TX-
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Nara Visa, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Oldham
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 10304 3562 10290 3550 10283 3544 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 066DEG 13KT 3553 10292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
708 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

TXZ001-080045-
Dallam TX-
708 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DALLAM COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Ware, or 22 miles northwest of Dalhart, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Dallam
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 10280 3621 10270 3607 10292 3626 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 061DEG 8KT 3625 10284

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
721 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

TXZ006-080045-
Hartley TX-
721 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HARTLEY COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Romero, or 20 miles southwest of Dalhart, moving
west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Romero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 10271 3577 10271 3572 10294 3596 10298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 087DEG 8KT 3586 10279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SH