Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

-Additional severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
 evening, mainly across the central to eastern Panhandles. Overnight
 thunderstorms may be possible in the east leading to a flood threat
 from rain received this morning.

-Thunderstorm chances, with a severe potential, will continue
 through the work week.

-The coming weekend is looking to be hot with triple digit
 temperatures across the combined Panhandles Sat through Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The combined Panhandles continue to see positive H7 theta-e
advection, with abundant moisture in play for thunderstorms. Also,
Tds here in Amarillo are currently sitting around 69 with a south
wind at the time of this writing. Also, at this time the eastern
combined Panhandles continue to see thunderstorms dropping several
inches of rain. These storms in the northeast are expected to
continue through maybe noon, with a potential break in storms
early this afternoon. Depending on the next upper level shortwave
storms could get going again as early as 3 pm but likely to start
around 4-5PM and last through maybe 10 PM. Environmental
conditions suggest that there is a potential for much of the
combined Panhandles to see severe storms this evening. That
doesn't mean everyone will but the potential is there if a storm
forms nearby. However, CAMs are largely locking onto the central
Panhandles with Amarillo potentially in play as well. Storm mode
is expected to be somewhat scattered with isolated supercells
possible, mainly between Amarillo to Lipscomb. The extent of
coverage northwest and southeast of this line is a bit in
question.

The northeast combined Panhandles where the storms have been this
morning continue to have around 3000-4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE. Going
into this afternoon some of the northeast combined Panhandles may
be able to hang onto this amount of instability while further west
MUCAPE values may be closer to 2000-3000 J/Kg. Bulk shear is
progged be around 35 to 55 kts this afternoon/evening as well. If
it were spring and not summer there would be no problem getting
baseball size hail maybe larger with storms. However, with it
being summer, H5 temperatures are on the warm side between -5 and
-8 degrees C. Not favorable for sig hail. Would not rule out some
hail up to ping pong size with well organized supercells though.
Also, as the afternoon comes upon us, drier Tds are expected to
move in from the west, with Amarillo dropping from 70 to near 57
adding to an increased chance in damaging straight line winds with
DCAPE increasing to 1500 J/Kg or higher. Even further east as it
warms up, the strong storms could still produce straight line
winds as temperatures warm. Tornados are not expected to be
favorable. However, if conditions come together right with any
outflow boundaries interacting with an updraft of a supercell,
cannot rule out a brief tornado today.

Additional thunderstorms in the northeastern combined Panhandles
will be something to watch for later in the overnight period once
again. While the severe potential is expected to drop off during the
overnight, especially after the atmosphere gets worked over today,
continued concerns for flooding will be present. Many areas between
Beaver and Lipscomb county have already received 4"-5" as of this
writing.

With the nature of the combined Panhandles sitting under the
northeastern fringe of a ridge, thunderstorms will be possible
tomorrow once again. Severe storms cannot be ruled out for tomorrow
as well. This time, the highest instability will be in the western
combined Panhandles with the east potentially seeing less MUCAPE.
Depending on which model is looked at though. However, storms do
look to move in from NM and the higher terrain and trek eastward
primarily in the evening to overnight hours. Damaging wind is
likely going to be the main threat as far as severe goes, due to
the nature of the summer season and slightly less instability than
what is seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thursday, perturbations in the ridge, especially later in the day,
may spark additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Abundant
moisture is expected, along with the potential for H5 temperatures
to cool a bit closer to -10 degrees C. This could be a decent shot
at severe storms later in the day. Thats if an early morning
shortwave doesn't cause early storms and stabilize the atmosphere
going into the evening.

Warm temperatures continue Thu and Fri, with Friday night being the
last chance at 20 to 30 PoPs for a while. The upper level ridge is
progged to build slightly, as a surface trough moves over the area
brining in lower Tds. This surface trough will also contribute to
a warming southwest wind around 20 gust 30 mph going into Sat.
This is expected to bring about widespread hot temperatures in the
triple digits, Sat thru Mon. For Sat, models may be slightly over
done, as moisture between now and then may play a role in warming
potential. Also the extent of a surface trough may impact warming
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Abundant moisture has kept some MVFR CIGs around for KAMA and
KGUY this morning. Conditions are just now starting to improve to
VFR where they should mostly stay. The caveat will be the
potential for thunderstorms to develop later after 21Z for KAMA
maybe even KGUY. KAMA could even be under a severe threat later
today as well. Expect south winds mainly around 15 kts with gusts
up to 25 kts outside of any thunder influence.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
107 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-240615-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
107 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance for another round of severe thunderstorms today
with large hail, damaging winds, and torrential rainfall being
the main threats.

Any additional rain overnight in the eastern Panhandles may lead
to a flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Daily low to medium chances for thunderstorms through Friday.
There is a further low chance for these storms to be severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

This weekend has the potential to be very hot which bring the risk
of heat illness.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1157 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

TXZ020-231745-
Collingsworth TX-
1157 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM CDT...

At 1157 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lutie, or 10 miles south of Shamrock, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Dodson, Dozier, Lutie, and Samnorwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10033 3518 10043 3518 10000 3475 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 329DEG 22KT 3507 10022

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Muscha

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