Red Flag Warning 39, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

193 
WWUS84 KAMA 170103
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
803 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-170300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260517T0300Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0039.260517T1700Z-260518T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
803 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE 
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... 
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT 
SUNDAY FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* WINDS...Today, southwest to south-southwest at 10 to 25 mph 
  with gusts up to 35 mph. Sunday, southwest at 20 to 35 mph 
  with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 4 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Today, mid-90s to low-100s. Sunday, low-90s to 
  low-100s.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...
  
  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

756 
WWUS84 KAMA 170303
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1003 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-171200-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260517T0300Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0039.260517T1700Z-260518T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1003 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT 
SUNDAY FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* WINDS...Southwest at 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 4 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Low 90s to Low 100s.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Critical...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

496 
WWUS84 KAMA 170323
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1023 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-171300-
/O.NEW.KAMA.FW.A.0024.260518T1600Z-260519T0200Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0039.260517T1700Z-260518T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1023 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 
MONDAY EVENING FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE 
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for breezy winds and low relative humidity, which
is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening.

* WINDS...For Sunday, Southwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40
  mph. For Monday, South/Southwest 25 to 25 mph with gusts up to
  50 mph. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 4 percent for both Sunday and
  Monday.

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper to mid 90s for both Sunday and
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Extreme...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

A Fire Weather Watch means that the potential for critical fire
weather conditions exists. Listen for later forecasts and
possible red flag warnings.

&&

$$

854 
WWUS84 KAMA 171055
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
555 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-172000-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0039.260517T1700Z-260518T0200Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.A.0024.260518T1600Z-260519T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
555 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING 
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* WINDS...For Sunday, Southwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40
  mph. For Monday, South/Southwest 25 to 25 mph with gusts up to
  50 mph. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 4 percent for both Sunday and
  Monday.

* TEMPERATURES...In the upper to mid 90s for both Sunday and
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Extreme...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

A Fire Weather Watch means that the potential for critical fire
weather conditions exists. Listen for later forecasts and
possible red flag warnings.

&&

$$

897 
WWUS84 KAMA 171556
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1056 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-180000-
/O.UPG.KAMA.FW.A.0024.260518T1600Z-260519T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KAMA.FW.W.0040.260518T1400Z-260519T0500Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0039.260517T1700Z-260518T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1056 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 
MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR 
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for windy and very dry conditions, which is in effect 
from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night. The Fire Weather 
Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Today, southwest at 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45
  mph. Monday, southwest at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 4 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Today, 90s to low-100s. Monday, upper-80s to
  around 100.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Extreme...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

818 
WWUS84 KAMA 180112
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
812 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026


OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-180215-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260518T0200Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0040.260518T1400Z-260519T0500Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
812 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* WINDS...This evening, southwest at 20 to 25 mph with gusts up 
  to 35 mph. Monday, southwest at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...This evening upper 80s to low 90s. Monday, 90s 
  to around 100.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...Monday

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Extreme...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

800 
WWUS84 KAMA 180156
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
856 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026


OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-181200-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260518T0200Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0040.260518T1400Z-260519T0500Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
856 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...

* WINDS...Southwest at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 5 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...90s to around 100.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will have the potential to 
  spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

* SEVERITY...

  FUELS (ERC)...90th+ percentile...5 (out of 5).

  WEATHER...Extreme...4 (out of 5).

  FIRE ENVIRONMENT...9 (out of 10).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
615 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Isolated chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday in the
eastern combined Panhandles.

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday
  across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Tonight, winds will remain gusty until precipitation dissipates,
where winds will likely bottom out to less than 10 MPH sustained
winds. Winds tonight could remain breezy (up to 20 MPH) in the SE,
where pressure gradient remains dense. Relative humidity recovery
will be poorest in the southwestern CWA, where retreating moisture
will not reach overnight before pushing back east.

On Saturday, minimum relative humidities of 5-10% are expected to be
widespread as the retreated dryline pushes back east. Breezy wind
conditions on both sides of the dryline along with these low
relative humidities will lead to widespread critical fire weather
across the combined Panhandles. The dryline will likely set up over
the easter Panhandles for much of the day, pushing east into the
evening. It is possible for isolated convection to initiate off of
the dryline tomorrow afternoon/early evening. However, questionable
forcing along the dryline is the main concern. It will likely take
deep mixing (due to the elevated mixed layer) in order to initiate
convection. The best chances for convection look to be in our
northeast CWA, where we see better H700 Theta E advection into
the late afternoon/evening hours, which could degrade capping
enough to allow for isolated convective initiation.

Overnight Saturday, the dryline retreats back into the eastern
Panhandles. A tighter pressure gradient and upper-level support
arriving in the form of trough ejection into the panhandles will
increase wind speeds, likely to advisory levels on Sunday. Poor RH
recovery overnight Saturday in the central and western combined
Panhandles, minimum RH values of 5-10% across much of the
Panhandles, and increased wind speeds will likely bring widespread
critical and possible extreme fire weather conditions. A lack of
obvious forcing along the dryline on Sunday will make deep mixing a
necessity for any convective initiation for the eastern Panhandles.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday's pattern persists into Monday, with strong winds and poor RH
recovery in the western Panhandles. When relative humidities bottom
out on Monday (down to 5-10%) critical to extreme fire weather
concerns will return. Precipitation chances look to be a similar
story to the weekend, with a diffuse dryline setup over the eastern
Panhandles with lacking forcing and deep mixing necessary for any
initiation.

The cold front has begun to trend slower, likely reaching the OK
Panhandle overnight Monday into Tuesday. This will be monitored
closely as we gain more confidence in the short term, as this will
lead to gusty winds and a wind shift from SSW to N, which will make
any ongoing fires behave erratically.

The cold frontal passage will knock down high temperatures
throughout next week, warming back up as we approach the end of the
forecast period. A wetter pattern is being hinted at for the middle
of next week, with an upper level shortwave upstream providing
synoptic support for weak surface lifting mechanisms and lingering
moisture. However, whether beneficial rainfall will come from this
wetter pattern is still uncertain.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. We are watching for VCTS by this afternoon, especially
for KAMA/KGUY, but confidence not high enough to include in TAF at
this time. With VCTS conditions, if TS develops and moves over TAF
sites, erratic winds are possible. Otherwise, overall winds will
be out of the south and southwest at 10-20 kts with higher gusts
at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For today, a surface low just off the southern Front Range will
see the Panhandles under our more typical down-slope wind set up.
This unfortunately means that very dry and hot conditions will
continue to be present for another day as locations see single
digit relative humidity values and 90 to near triple digit highs.
Winds will mostly be out of the southwest to south for the day
with speeds thankfully only around 15 to 20 mph with gust upwards
of 35 mph. One thing that may need to be watch will be the
northwestern Panhandles however. Currently latest CAMs have seen
this areas still hold onto some weak instability during the
afternoon. While this instability is not looking strong enough to
trigger more thunderstorms, it could lead to pyro-cumulus
development from any fire that are currently present or start in
the area. Otherwise, very poor overnight recovery looks to follow
for the western and northern portions of the Panhandles that nigh
with some places barley reach relative humidity values of 20
percent.

Sunday will see increasing winds with an approaching upper level
system that will induce typical dry-line scenario. Unfortunately,
present models have seen the dry well east of the Panhandles,
which will result in much of the area under very dry and windy
conditions for the day. Relative humidity values are expected to
be as low as 5 percent with winds gusting out of the southwester
to 40 to 45 mph. This will lead to RFTIs upwards of 7 across the
western two thirds of the combined Panhandles. Monday is expected
to be a repeat with a potential for winds to gust slightly higher
at time in the 45 to 55 mph range. Although lightning will not be
of concern, any remaining embers from ongoing fires will have a
potential to spark new fires. Sunday has a 10 percent chance to
see significant fires, with Monday having as high as a 30 percent
chance. A cold front is expected late Monday with low confidence
on the exact timing of the front. Generally, for now, expecting
the front to enter the Oklahoma Panhandle in the late
afternoon/evening time frame.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-161730-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1223 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Chance for isolated thunderstorms every afternoon and evening
until Monday for the eastern combined Panhandles.

Critical fire weather conditions expected Saturday, and critical
to possible extreme fire weather conditions expected Sunday and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.