Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected for most of the
  Panhandles this afternoon and again on Wednesday.

- High temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees is expected
  throughout this week. Expecting highs to increase further as we
  head into the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The Panhandles region continues to be on the western periphery of a
notable 596 decameter high pressure system, centered over the SE
CONUS. With SW H500 flow, mid level perturbations moving NE from far
west Texas, as seen in the latest 17Z satellite obs will result in
more thunderstorm chances for this afternoon and this evening.
Latest 18Z RAOB data for Amarillo still shows some type of cap
in the lowest levels, but the aforementioned perturbation should
help to erode this. DCAPE values also around 1100 J/kg for the
southern TX Panhandle and 1500-1700 J/kg for the northern
combined Panhandles will established damaging winds as the main
severe weather hazard to watch later today. Could also see some
large hail and heavy rainfall rates with more established areas of
convection.

Similar synoptic set up for tomorrow for the combined Panhandles
with 25-35 kts of effective linear shear on the western periphery
of the H500 high with good moisture transport in SW flow regime.
Daytime heating will once again aid in strong to severe
thunderstorm development with damaging wind gusts being the
primary threat. High temperatures tomorrow will be well into the
90s across the Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The main H500 high over the southeast CONUS from the latest 30/12Z
global data will slowly compress throughout later in the week and
into the coming weekend. With very anemic H500 flow as this high
compresses, diurnally driven thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
each day. Day by day will vary with exact rain chances, but each
day will feature some chance above 10 percent. Above average
temperatures will continue through early July, with some
locations that could reach the 100-105 temperature range,
especially portions of the Texas Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the TAF
period. the only exception could be for KAMA where a PROB30 group
was introduced from approximately 02-06Z where erratic winds from
TSRA are possible. Winds will be out of the southwest at 15-25
kts, with higher gusts at times.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
216 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010730-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
216 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through the evening.
Cannot rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm with the primary
hazard being damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible daily from Wednesday through
Monday. Thunderstorms on Wednesday could reach severe criteria
with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
408 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 S Black Mesa Park     36.83N 102.88W
06/30/2026  M60 MPH          Cimarron           OK   Mesonet

            Two five minute gusts to 60 observed between
            1550CDT and 1555CDT.

&&

TLH