Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight.
Some of these storms may become severe with damaging winds and
hail as the primary hazards. Thunderstorms today will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall that may cause flash flooding.

Hot temperatures will return to the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle
on Wednesday. Chances for widespread triple digit heat are high.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... Issued at 130
PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Synoptic Overview:
An upper level trough prepares to descend south across the High
Plains this afternoon and evening. A moist and unstable airmass is
positioned ahead of the front where surface temperatures continue
to climb while dewpoints remain high. As the front progresses
south, a line thunderstorms will develop along the boundary and
move alongside it through the rest of the day and into the
overnight period.

Mesoscale:
Current satellite and radar features show that thunderstorm
formation has already begun along the aforementioned cold front in
SE Colorado and SW Kansas. Further development is expected to
spread from west to east as the front continues its southward
progression. Despite southwesterly surface wind flow, low level
moisture remains high with 60s dewpoints spread across the entire
region. As quality moisture continues to surge across the combined
Panhandles, CAPE profiles should continue to increase. Based off
our 18Z sounding, 2,673 J/kg of SBCAPE has been measured over
Amarillo. Our 18Z sounding also shows steep mid level lapse rates
>8 C/km, poor effective shear of 21 kts, and strong DCAPE up to
1200 J/kg. This regime is best suited for fast and large upscale
growth for thunderstorms with poor individual sustainability.
However, with the cold front as their forcing mechanism, storms
will be able to sustain or regenerate updrafts as the front
advances. The best environment for storms will be across the
eastern Panhandles where the highest instability is setup coupled
with marginally favorable shear vectors (25-30 kts). As the day
turns to night, thunderstorms should become elevated and have less
effective layer CAPE to work with. Still, activity is expected to
continue until the front moves out of our area. Additionally, our
measured PWAT of 1.13" this afternoon is indicative of efficient
rain producing thunderstorms. Even as the threat for severe
thunderstorms decrease overnight, thunderstorms will remain
capable of producing heavy rainfall well into the morning hours.

Threats:
High DCAPE and strong thunderstorm downdrafts will allow damaging
winds to be the primary threat for severe thunderstorms today.
Wind gusts up to 75 mph are anticipated with rouge gusts
potentially being greater than 75 mph. Large hail cannot be ruled
out with the earlier development this afternoon, especially across
the east where shear is somewhat supportive. Elsewhere, 500 mb
temperatures are able to support hail stones up to ping pong ball
size (1.5"), but thunderstorm updrafts will need to be tilted in
order for melting to be mitigated. Torrential rainfall is expected
with any strong storm and flash flooding is possible for areas
that are urban, overworked, or low-lying. Tonight, the hail threat
decreased and thunderstorms will mainly be capable of strong
winds and heavy rain.

Timing & Location:
Thunderstorms have already begun in the north, but their severe
chances will remain low until updrafts can become more robust
later this afternoon. Storm motion is WSW to ENE, but
thunderstorms will also slowly move south as the cold front
progresses. Severe thunderstorm activity may end as late as
midnight, but thunderstorms may continue well into the 6 AM hour
on Sunday.

Rangel

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the rest of the short term period, hot temperatures continue
across the CWA this afternoon. After the cold front pushed
through, much cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon.
Highs on Sunday may not escape the 70s areawide. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect portions of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle Sunday afternoon and evening. This
activity is expected mainly across our western zones with chances
for severe storms being very low unlike today.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

An above average temperature trend continue in the long term
period. While precipitation chances do not appear as widespread as
they are in the current short term, chances do exist for a number
of days in the extended period.

The H250 trough begins to retreat northward next week. High pressure
will attempt to build in from the south, but most models still
suggest we remain under zonal flow for the next 7 days. A steady
ramp up in high temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday, but
the FA will still be below to near average for highs on those days.
Strong warm air advection looks to overtake the region on Wednesday.
Clear skies, low relative humidity, and breezy southwest winds will
allow temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 100s for the day.
After the extreme heat, the CWA should be subject to troughing for
the remainder of the week. These fronts will help drop highs back
into the 80s and 90s. While Wednesday looks dry, the rest of the
days this week look to host some amount of thunderstorm chances in
the afternoon. The overall coverage appears low at this time, so
PoPs will also be <40%, except on Monday, where scattered
afternoon storms seem possible.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Cold front will help generate thunderstorms across the region
into the early morning hours Sunday. GUY and DHT greatest
potential for impacts will be the first few hours of the forecast
period with AMA peak occurring a little later into the evening.
Behind the front, MVFR conditions with continued showers are
expected, although the MVFR conditions are expected to be shorter
lived in the far north than south near AMA. A chance for high
based weaker shower will continue into Sunday, however VFR
conditions are expected to develop and continue into the aftn.
Precip chances and impacts on Sunday seem to low to pinpoint for
tempos in TAFs outside of the evening and overnight activity.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...88

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-140600-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight.
Some of these storms may become severe with damaging winds and
hail as the primary hazards.

Thunderstorms today will be capable of producing heavy rainfall
that may cause flash flooding. Do not attempt to drive over
flooded roadways.

Hot temperatures continue at Palo Duro Canyon this afternoon.
Temperatures up to 105 degrees are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorm chances continue over the area for the next several
days. Chances for severe thunderstorms remain low for this time
frame.

Very hot temperatures may return to the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandle on Wednesday. Chances for widespread triple digit heat
are high.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
341 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ002-132115-
Texas OK-
341 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TEXAS COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Elkhart, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Texas
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 10152 3673 10185 3697 10196 3699 10191
      3699 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 317DEG 19KT 3695 10183

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
413 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ002-132145-
Texas OK-
413 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN TEXAS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Hough, or 11 miles southeast of Elkhart, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hough.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 10183 3696 10170 3679 10144 3670 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 309DEG 13KT 3688 10175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
449 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ001-132215-
Cimarron OK-
449 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CIMARRON COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Kenton, or 28 miles northwest of Boise City, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kenton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10280 3686 10286 3686 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 218DEG 9KT 3696 10295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
536 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ001-002-132300-
Cimarron OK-Texas OK-
536 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Keyes, or 17 miles east of Boise City. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Keyes and Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 10237 3695 10222 3687 10194 3664 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 311DEG 3KT 3682 10221

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SS

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