Tornado Warning 4, NWS Albany, NY

126 
WWUS51 KALY 272232
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYC091-115-272242-
/O.CAN.KALY.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260827T2245Z/
Saratoga NY-Washington NY-
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL SARATOGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. A Severe Thunderstorm
Warning still remains in effect until 730 PM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT
Thursday for a portion of east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4311 7376 4320 7376 4323 7342 4308 7338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 270DEG 23KT 4315 7370

$$

53

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
332 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of eastern
New York and Litchfield, Berkshire, and Bennington counties in
western New England until 9 PM tonight.

Wind gusts have been increased through this afternoon as breezy
conditions continue outside of thunderstorm activity.

A Flood Watch continues through 11 PM tonight for Dutchess and
Ulster counties for the potential for flash flooding due to
excessive rainfall from thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continues through this evening
across all of eastern New York and western New England. Some
could be severe, with the potential for damaging wind gusts.

2) Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be capable of
producing heavy downpours, which could result in flooding of
urban and low lying areas, especially across Ulster and Dutchess
counties.

3) A few lingering rain showers or thunderstorms will continue
into Friday for southern and eastern areas, but no additional
severe storms or flooding is expected. Seasonable and dry
weather is expected over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Afternoon Update: A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms continues through the early evening hours as
latest radar scans and visible satellite imagery continues to
show numerous showers and thunderstorms developing. See previous
discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: An upper level disturbance is currently
located over the Upper Great Lakes and it will be lifting across
southern Ontario and into western Quebec for today. At the
surface, a cold front is located well west of the area over the
Ohio Valley and Midwest. Surface warm front will be lifting
across the area this morning and a surface trough ahead of the
main front will be approaching the area for this afternoon into
this evening. This will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms, which look to develop by the early to mid
afternoon hours.

There looks to be sufficient shear and instability for organized
storms today. The 00z HRRR and 00z SPC HREF both shows
instability should reach the 1000-2000 J/kg range, especially
for southern areas. 0-6 km bulk shear should be around 30 kts
today. As a result, storms look to organize into small bows or
lines by late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a
threat for straight-line wind damage. Some the stronger storms
could contain some hail as well. An isolated tornado is possible
for any supercells ahead of the main line and the 00z HRRR does
suggest there may be enough low-level helicity, although Sig Tor
parameters looks to max out around 1-2 today, mainly for
eastern areas. AI/ML guidance continues to show the potential
for damaging winds and an isolated tornado across the region for
today as well and has been showing this signal for the past few
days. SPC has expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and it
now is in place for nearly the entire ALY Forecast area.

Storms may linger into the evening, but will start to diminish
between 8 PM and 10 PM, as the best forcing shifts eastward and
the loss of daytime heating allows instability to wane.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Afternoon Update: The Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) has been
expanded for this afternoon and evening to include almost all of
eastern NY and western New England as the environment is
favorable for thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall. See
previous discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion: In addition to the severe threat, there
will be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
this afternoon into this evening. PWAT values will be surging to
1.50 to 2.00 inches for this afternoon and evening thanks to
the low-level southerly flow in place. Dewpoints will be
reaching well into the 60s to near 70 by late this afternoon, so
there will be plenty of moisture available. Rainfall rates can
easily reach 1-2 inches per hour in this type of environment.

CAMs suggests that several rounds of storms are possible and
some areas may see training of precipitation. Some of the CAMs
(especially the RRFS) suggests that localized rainfall totals
may exceed 4 inches. While the placement has varied somewhat
from run-to-run, the consensus in ensembles seems to suggest
that southern areas (Ulster and Dutchess Counties) may have the
highest potential for heavy rainfall, as cellular activity may
occur in addition to a main line of storms. As a result, have
issued a Flood Watch for the potential for flash flooding for
Ulster and Dutchess Counties, which also matches up with the
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall from WPC.
Urban and low lying areas would be the most susceptible to
flooding, which may result in damaged and impassable roadways.
As always, travelers are reminder to need cross flooded
roadways.

In addition to southern areas, other parts of the area may
still see flooding rainfall and some guidance does suggest parts
of the Lake George Region and southern VT could see repeated
downpours as well, so will need to monitor trends and possibly
expand the current Watch further north.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Afternoon Update: No changes to the current forecast. See
previous discussion below for more details.

The storm's main cold front will be crossing on Friday. A few
additional showers or thunderstorms are possible on Friday,
mainly for southern and eastern areas, but coverage will be
lower than Thursday. There won't be as much instability and
shear, so storms won't be able to become severe and probably
won't be widespread enough to cause any additional flooding.
The threat for additional precipitation will end from west to
east during the afternoon hours with the passage of the cold
front.

Over the weekend, high pressure will allow for dry weather and
seasonable conditions. Plenty of sunshine is expected on
Saturday with highs in valley areas in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Dewpoints will be more comfortable compared to recent days, with
values in the 50s to low 60s. It will turn slightly more humid
and warmer on Sunday, but it looks to stay dry with a partly
sunny sky and highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z/Friday...VFR conditions will start to deteriorate over
the next few hours as an approaching cold front brings showers and
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Current KENX radar and
satellite  imagery shows some showers already entering the region as
well as some low level stratus. Model guidance shows the best chance
for thunderstorms to develop between about 18z and 24 across all the
terminals resulting in lowered flight conditions to MVFR/IFR, if any
develop over the terminals. A break in the showers and thunderstorms
could occur around 00z however cigs are expected to still remain
MVFR. Due to the ample low level moisture and low T/TD spread,
fog/mist could develop across all the terminals, with model
soundings suggesting KGFL and KPSF to have the best chance of
IFR/LIFR flight conditions. Confidence is low at this time that any
lingering showers and/or thunderstorms will pass over the terminals
in the early morning hours before sunrise but the possibility is
mentioned in a PROB30 for KGFL, KALB, and KPOU. Any fog and showers
should dissipate with sunrise, however pesky low stratus is expected
to persist through the end of the TAF period across all sites, with
KPSF likely remaining MVFR through the end of the TAF period.

Winds this afternoon will be out of the south/southwest 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 25 kt and gusts near 35 kt where any thunderstorms
develop. Tonight winds become light and/or calm before increasing
after sunrise with speeds 5-10 kt out of the southwest at KGFL,
KPOU, and KPSF and out of the northwest at KALB.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...27/05
AVIATION...53

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
334 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYZ038>040-082-272015-
Southern Fulton NY-Northern Fulton NY-Southern Herkimer NY-
Montgomery NY-
334 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FULTON...
SOUTHEASTERN HERKIMER AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Little Falls, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Dolgeville, St. Johnsville, Oppenheim, Ingham Mills,
Crum Creek, Garlock Corners, Kringsbush, Rockwood, Lotville, Rasbach
Corner, Doxtater Corner, Fink Basin, Mindenville, Davys Corners,
Fical Corners, Scotchbrush, Indian Castle, Phipps Corners, and Ingham
Mills Station.

This includes Interstate 90 near exit 29A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
eastern New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4294 7479 4304 7489 4321 7456 4306 7442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 240DEG 22KT 4302 7481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
344 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYZ032-272015-
Northern Herkimer NY-
344 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Northwood, or 15 miles east of Boonville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Northwood, Nobleboro, Atwell, Wilmurt, Wheelertown, Wilmurt Corners,
North Wilmurt, and Herkimer Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
eastern New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4367 7480 4348 7478 4341 7482 4334 7495
      4333 7508 4351 7510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 240DEG 22KT 4342 7504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
349 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYZ064>066-272015-
Western Dutchess NY-Eastern Ulster NY-Eastern Dutchess NY-
349 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ULSTER AND NORTHERN
DUTCHESS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hyde Park, or 7 miles north of Poughkeepsie, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Rhinebeck, Hyde Park, Pleasant Valley, Highland, Millbrook,
  Staatsburg, Fairview, Stanfordville, Tillson, Esopus, Pleasant
  Plains, Dewitt Mills, Clinton Hollow, Netherwood, Gretna, Salt
  Point, Wurtemburg and Norrie Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 7396 4183 7407 4196 7386 4181 7359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 238DEG 25KT 4179 7396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

53

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
420 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Northwood           43.35N 75.05W
08/27/2026                   Herkimer           NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down on wires near State Route 365 and
            Wheelertown Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
439 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Northwood           43.35N 75.04W
08/27/2026                   Herkimer           NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Barnhart Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
610 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Porter Corners     43.13N 73.85W
08/27/2026                   Saratoga           NY   Amateur Radio

            Several reports of trees and wires down in
            Greenfield.

&&