Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
507 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #432 has been issued for areas north
of Albany in eastern New York and also Bennington County in
southern Vermont. This watch is in effect through 11 pm.

Minor adjustment to probability of precipitation for this
afternoon into tonight as showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise, no changes
made to the current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will lead
to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses today through
Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely reach the Major to
locally Extreme Categories.

2) Thunderstorms are possible each of the next several days, with
the greatest coverage expected today and Saturday. Some storms may
be strong to severe today with damaging winds and hail up to 1
inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As of 2:30 PM...Dangerous heat continues through Friday across
eastern New York and western New England. Heat headlines
continue for all of eastern New York and western New England.
Surface observations continue to show widespread heat index
(feels-like temperatures) values ranging between 95 and 115
degrees across eastern New York and western New England. Actual
air temperatures range in the low to upper 90s in eastern New
York and western New England valley locations. Thursday is still
on track to be the hottest day this week with highs in the low
to upper 90s. Poughkeepsie area has the greatest risk of
reaching over 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon if plenty of
morning and afternoon sunshine occurs. Continue to have multiple
ways of staying cool and staying hydrated.

Previous Discussion...Friday and Saturday, the ridge begins to
weaken. Both days will remain quite hot, with highs Friday again
well into the 90s for most valley areas. A very weak cold
frontal boundary will track across the region Friday, which
could result in a few more clouds and some isolated convection.
With temps and dew points a couple degrees lower than the
previous days, some areas in the extreme heat warning may be
able to be downgraded to advisories for Friday. Saturday,
temperatures will be more in the low to mid 90s with more
convection around, but additional heat advisories will likely be
needed. A stronger cold front tracks through the region
Saturday night into Sunday as the ridge aloft continues to break
down. Temperatures Sunday into the first half of next week
likely remain above normal with mid and upper 80s (low 90s
possible Sunday in the Mid Hudson Valley), but heat indices
should remain below advisory criteria Sunday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As of 2:30 PM...Based on latest analysis of the 18z ALY
sounding, the current environment is favorable for thunderstorms
to develop into this evening. A few storms could become severe
through 8 PM tonight, with primary concerns being 60+ mph winds
and hail up to 1 inch. Where storms develops continues to be the
low confidence portion of the equation today, as they could be
isolated and highly localized if storms get enough energy.
Confidence continues to increase for the severe threat to end by
8 PM, but between 8 PM and midnight there could be additional
showers and thunderstorms as conditions are favorable for
lingering storms. Nevertheless, have multiple ways to receive
warnings and be prepared to head indoors when thunder roars.

Previous Discussion...Forcing is less evident compared to
yesterday, but guidance does show a couple ripples moving
overtop the upper ridge. While the cap will be stronger than
yesterday, it does not look quite as strong as some previous
guidance was suggesting it might be. With numerous OFBs leftover
from the overnight convection, this should provide enough
forcing for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon. Shear will be less impressive than yesterday and
hodographs are shorter, so will likely see some loosely
organized clusters as opposed to more coherent line segments
like yesterday. That said, CAPE values >3000J/kg and DCAPE >1000
J/kg will lead to a damaging wind threat with any stronger
storms. Despite high freezing levels, impressive cape through
the HGZ and steep lapse rates could allow for some large hail as
well.

Convective threat looks lower Thursday, with more capping, the
ridge axis a little closer, and the better upper forcing
displaced north of the region. SPC has a marginal risk for
portions of the southern ADKs, likely due to high to extreme
CAPE again and slightly more shear, but the threat is very
conditional upon some sort of trigger mechanism being able to
break the CAP.

Additional convection is possible each day Friday through
Sunday, with the best coverage Saturday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Each day will still feature plenty of instability,
with strengthening mid and upper westerly flow as the ridge
breaks down, so some stronger storms may be possible, although
details remain fuzzy this far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday... VFR conditions will prevail across all
terminals at the start of this TAF period. There is potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon into this evening, which could bring periods of
MVFR/IFR cigs and vis throughout that time. Showers/storms will
taper off overnight, giving way to mist/fog in the early morning
hours, particularly at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF. Widespread VFR
conditions will return after sunrise tomorrow as skies begin to
clear, with only a few fair weather cumulus and high clouds
expected towards the very end of the TAF period.

Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest this
afternoon. Thunderstorms could bring more variable and strong
winds/gusts to all terminals, with the potential for gusts up
to 20-30 kts. The overnight hours will see light and variable
winds across all terminals, persisting into Thursday morning,
before slightly strengthening with winds out of the west
expected thereafter through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current Record High Temperatures

July 1:
Albany: 99 (1913)
Glens Falls: 100 (1913)
Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2:
Albany: 98 (1966, 1901)
Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901)
Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3:
Albany: 102 (1911)
Glens Falls: 101 (1911)
Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day:
Albany: September 3, 1953
Glens Falls: July 10, 1988
Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043-
     047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ001.
VT...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ014.

&&

DISCUSSION...35/05
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYZ064>066-012030-
Eastern Dutchess NY-Western Dutchess NY-Eastern Ulster NY-
352 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ULSTER AND
NORTHWESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Port Ewen, or over Kingston, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kingston, Rhinebeck, Pleasant Valley, Hurley, Red Hook, Lake Katrine,
Stanfordville, Staatsburg, Port Ewen, Tillson, Esopus, Rosendale,
Milan, Rolling Meadows, Salt Point, Maple Hill, Norrie Heights, Sweet
Meadows, Linden Acres, and Hillside.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 7411 4204 7406 4200 7368 4172 7374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 278DEG 22KT 4191 7396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYZ033-012030-
Hamilton NY-
403 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blue Mountain Lake, or 11 miles northwest of Indian Lake, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Mountain Lake, Lake Eaton Campground, Lake Durant Campground,
Long Lake, Eagle Nest, Catlin Lake, and Deerland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4402 7426 4397 7425 4392 7434 4381 7422
      4382 7419 4383 7415 4381 7412 4381 7408
      4380 7405 4375 7406 4384 7451 4402 7447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 272DEG 16KT 4392 7440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KSL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
458 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Kingston                41.93N 74.00W
07/01/2026                   Ulster             NY   Law Enforcement

            Report of tree down on Foxhall Avenue.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
504 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Kingston           41.92N 73.99W
07/01/2026                   Ulster             NY   Public

            Social media report of trees down on McEntee
            St off of Broadway in Kingston.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
527 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYZ040-047-048-051-012200-
Schoharie NY-Western Schenectady NY-Montgomery NY-Western Albany NY-
527 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY...
NORTHEASTERN SCHOHARIE AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Central Bridge, or 11 miles northeast of Cobleskill, moving east at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Duanesburg, Delanson, Central Bridge, Esperance, Duane, Old Central
Bridge, Rockwell Corners, Quaker Street, Mariaville, Burtonsville,
Eaton Corners, Oak Ridge, Sidney Corners, Lib Corners, West Township,
Dwelly Corners, Fox Corners, Duane Mansion, Schoharie Junction, and
Sloansville.

This includes Interstate 88 near exit 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 7437 4281 7439 4284 7413 4268 7412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 268DEG 15KT 4276 7429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
614 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

NYZ049-050-052-053-012300-
Eastern Albany NY-Western Rensselaer NY-Eastern Schenectady NY-
Southern Saratoga NY-
614 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SCHENECTADY...
NORTHEASTERN ALBANY...SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA AND NORTHWESTERN
RENSSELAER COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rotterdam, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Schenectady, Troy, Clifton Park, Rotterdam, Cohoes,
Watervliet, Rensselaer, Colonie, Scotia, Latham, Delmar, Guilderland,
Niskayuna, Menands, Green Island, Waterford, Loudonville, Wyantskill,
and Wynantskill.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 9 and 25a.
 Interstate 890 between exits 2A and 9.
 Interstate 87 between exits 23 and 7, and between exits 8A and 9.
 Interstate 787 between exits 1 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
east central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4269 7402 4282 7403 4289 7365 4259 7365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 270DEG 18KT 4276 7398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KSL