Tornado Warning 3, NWS Wakefield, VA

513 
WWUS51 KAKQ 170027
SVSAKQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
827 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VAC075-170037-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260317T0045Z/
Goochland VA-
827 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area.  Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
central, north central and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 7756 3792 7753 3788 7748 3788 7744
      3783 7743 3782 7741 3781 7742 3780 7739
      3778 7740 3778 7737 3780 7736 3779 7733
      3776 7734 3764 7757 3769 7764 3771 7764
      3771 7766 3774 7771 3780 7769 3795 7757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 230DEG 54KT 3773 7757 

$$

VAC085-087-170045-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260317T0045Z/
Henrico VA-Hanover VA-
827 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HENRICO AND CENTRAL HANOVER COUNTIES...

At 827 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Wyndham, or near Randolph Macon College, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Ashland and Randolph Macon College around 830 PM EDT.
  Kings Dominion around 835 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Rockville, Gilman, Oliver, Gum Tree, Coatesville, Hewlett, Goodall,
Doswell, Elmont, and Noel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 7756 3792 7753 3788 7748 3788 7744
      3783 7743 3782 7741 3781 7742 3780 7739
      3778 7740 3778 7737 3780 7736 3779 7733
      3776 7734 3764 7757 3769 7764 3771 7764
      3771 7766 3774 7771 3780 7769 3795 7757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 230DEG 54KT 3773 7757 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

EI

656 
WWUS51 KAKQ 170031
SVSAKQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
831 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VAC087-170041-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260317T0045Z/
Henrico VA-
831 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HENRICO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
central, north central and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 7757 3792 7756 3792 7753 3788 7748
      3788 7744 3783 7743 3782 7741 3781 7742
      3780 7739 3778 7740 3778 7737 3780 7736
      3779 7733 3777 7734 3768 7755 3771 7761
      3780 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 230DEG 54KT 3777 7751 

$$

VAC085-170045-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260317T0045Z/
Hanover VA-
831 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
HANOVER COUNTY...

At 831 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Randolph Macon College, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Ashland and Kings Dominion around 835 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Gilman, Oliver, Gum Tree, Coatesville, Hewlett, Goodall, Doswell,
Elmont, and Noel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 7757 3792 7756 3792 7753 3788 7748
      3788 7744 3783 7743 3782 7741 3781 7742
      3780 7739 3778 7740 3778 7737 3780 7736
      3779 7733 3777 7734 3768 7755 3771 7761
      3780 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 230DEG 54KT 3777 7751 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

EI

256 
WWUS51 KAKQ 170037
SVSAKQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
837 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VAC085-170047-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260317T0045Z/
Hanover VA-
837 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL HANOVER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 845
PM EDT...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been 
cancelled. However, damaging winds remain likely and a Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
central, north central and east central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 7757 3792 7756 3792 7753 3788 7748
      3788 7744 3783 7743 3782 7741 3781 7742
      3780 7739 3778 7740 3778 7737 3780 7736
      3779 7733 3777 7734 3768 7755 3771 7761
      3780 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 230DEG 54KT 3782 7744 

$$

EI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe weather continues ahead of a strong cold front today.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Moderate Risk
(level 4/5) with probabilities to 60% for wind and 10% for
tornadoes across much of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms continue this afternoon and this
evening. SPC has maintained the Moderate Risk(level 4/5) for western
and central portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
in place for the rest of the area (except eastern portions of the
Eastern Shore with a Slight Risk).

2) Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely for most of
the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains dry, with
seasonable temperatures returning late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms continue this afternoon and this
evening. SPC has maintained the Moderate Risk(level 4/5) for western
and central portions of the area with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
in place for the rest of the area (except eastern portions of the
Eastern Shore with a Slight Risk).

The severe threat continues this afternoon, though the first part of
the event has proved underwhelming. This is due to the messiness of
the pre-frontal activity that moved through this morning. A few spin
ups have been observed, with one tornado warning issued for parts of
NE NC near Edenton, as well as more recent one issued for near
Elizabeth City. The environmental conditions continue to remain
favorable for severe weather, especially in NE NC and SE VA where
the most healthy line of convection moving through. There is a
tongue of MLCAPE extends across that area which has helped increase
the severe potential. The special 18Z sounding KMHX showed a very
supportive environment, with ~340 m2/s2 0-1km SRH and MUCAPE of
almost 1900 J/kg. Farther north across the local area, a similar,
yet slightly less favorable environment is likely occuring due to
temperatures and dew points being a little lower with limited
clearing. While lots of shear and moisture remain in place, the
limiting factor remains instability and the fact the environment has
been worked over from previous, non-severe morning convection. SPC
sent an updated outlook that did drop the tornado probs across the
region, but the higher wind probs remained the same as the strong
upper jet continues to move across the area. While less coverage of
severe has been realized so far, the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms is going as expected. The SE portion of our will
continue to see storms moving through for the next few hours ahead
of the front. Hi-res guidance continues to bring the front through
our area from west to east between the hours of 7-10 pm (plus or
minus an hour pending the exact development of this line). This line
will bring one last punch of wind as it will be racing across the
local area rapidly. Strong to severe winds are expected along this
line and a few tornadoes along the line cannot be ruled out. While
some may think that the event is over, it is important to remain
weather aware until after this front comes through and not to find
yourself caught off guard.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold and breezy Tuesday, with a hard freeze likely
for most of the area Tuesday night/early Wed morning. It remains
dry, with seasonable temperatures returning late in the week.

Solid pressure rises are expected behind the front, which will keep
breezy conditions through Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph
possible. A very cold airmass will move in behind the front,
bringing temperatures down below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs only reaching the 40s. Most of the area can expect a hard
freeze on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as high pressure builds in
overhead and winds trend downwards. Lows will drop into the upper
20s to lower 30s, with the exception being the NC OBX, where
temperatures will be a little more modified by the surrounding
bodies of water. Temperatures will start to trend warmer by late
week, with generally dry conditions currently forecast through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 655 PM EDT Monday...

There is currently a mixed bag of flight conditions across the
forecast area. Generally VFR to MVFR conditions will continue
through early tonight until after the cold front gives the terminals
one last punch of wind/rain. Have included TEMPOs at all terminals
(roughly between 00-04z) to try and capture this line as it moves
through the terminals. The timeframe for this line moving through
spans roughly 2 hrs at all terminals which is due to the exact
timing remaining slightly uncertain. Once this front moves through,
the impacts will be quick, with some rain in the wake of the front.
Additionally, LLWS continues to impact the terminals for the next
few hours, lingering through around 02-03z before finally tapering
off. Surface winds have been under performing somewhat, but an
increase in winds is still expected as the front approaches and
immediately following. Behind the front, conditions will start to
improve and winds will start to decrease by the morning, though they
will remain gusty.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions return Tue on breezy WNW winds,
remaining dry Wed-Thu with diminishing winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front will cross the local waters this evening.
  Small Craft Advisory conditions continue in advance of the
  front, with a period of gale conditions expected late this
  afternoon and evening.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
  the waters through this evening. The main threat is strong
  wind gusts to 55kt along with the potential for a few
  waterspouts.

As low pressure deepens and lifts NE through the Great Lakes
this afternoon, a strong cold front will approach from the W,
then cross the Mid-Atlantic coast later this evening into the
early overnight hours. Modestly strong pressure falls, a tight
pressure gradient, and a 65-80 kt LLJ favor a 3-6hr period of
southerly gales, primarily for the northern coastal waters, but
a ~3hr period of gale conditions is also likely for the southern
coastal waters, Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound
late this aftn and evening. Occasional gusts to 35kt are also
possible over the upper rivers, but periodic showers/tstms
through the evening are likely to disrupt the synoptic flow for
the marine zones farther inland. Stable low-level lapse rates
with a mild and moist airmass overspreading cold ocean water
will be a limiting factor for anything more than just a few
strong to locally severe storms through this evening. Local wind
probs still depict the 70-100% probs of 34kt gusts over most of
the marine area with the exception of the upper rivers, and
even a 30-50% chc of 43kt gusts N of Parramore Is. Sharp
pressure rises of 10-12mb/3hr will result in strong WNW wind
gusts along and immediately behind the cold front, which could
also be enhanced by any convection. Seas build to 7-9ft S to
9-13ft N, with waves in the Ches. Bay of 3-5ft, and 5-7ft at the
mouth of the Bay. SCAs remain in effect through late
morning/early afternoon, with Gale Warnings going into effect
late morning through the afternoon and continuing through 1 AM.
The Currituck Sound also remains in a Gale Warning.

Remaining breezy Tuesday, with a secondary surge possible for the
Ches. Bay and coastal waters Tuesday night. This may allow for SCA
conditions to continue, or resume for the Ches. Bay. Meanwhile, seas
will be slow to subside Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, more
benign marine conditions are expected by mid to late this week as
high pressure settles across the region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ015>017-032-
     102.
VA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ095-097-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.

&&

DISCUSSION...NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AJZ/JDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
705 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ012>014-030-031-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-
509>525-172315-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Bertie-Chowan-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
705 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening,
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph
will be possible through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ015>017-032-102-VAZ095-097-098-172315-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
705 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening,
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph
will be possible through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

MDZ021>025-VAZ099-100-172315-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Accomack-Northampton-
705 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening,
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph
will be possible through midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

05

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
427 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 7 SW Fishermans Island  37.04N 76.08W
03/16/2026  M39 MPH          ANZ632             VA   Mesonet

            35 kt gust at Mesonet station XBBT Third
            Island.

&&

05

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
449 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 S Deltaville          37.53N 76.33W
03/16/2026  E47 MPH          Middlesex          VA   Public

            41 kt gust at Tempest Wx Station 115717 Near
            Stove Point Road, Deltaville on the
            Piankatank River.

&&

05

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
732 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Prospect           37.33N 78.53W
03/16/2026                   Prince Edward      VA   911 Call Center

            Tree down near Prospect. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

EI

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
742 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Farmville               37.30N 78.39W
03/16/2026                   Prince Edward      VA   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees down in Farmville. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

EI

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
752 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Baskerville       36.68N 78.32W
03/16/2026                   Mecklenburg        VA   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking Highway 58 near the
            intersection of Landfill Road.

&&

EI

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
756 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Simplicity              37.08N 78.43W
03/16/2026                   Lunenburg          VA   911 Call Center

            A couple of trees down on Route 360 in
            northwest Lunenburg County. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

EI