Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT for
  portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia.

- A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Bayside of
the Maryland eastern shore for the the high tide cycle tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT for
portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia.
There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across all zones through this evening (including zones not in
the Watch).

2) A cooler, drier pattern takes hold early this week. A return to
warmer and more humid conditions Wed-Thu and the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms later Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 420 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 11 PM EDT
for portions of south-central, central, and east-central Virginia.
There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms across
all zones through this evening (including zones not in the Watch).

Updated to add SVR Tstm Watch through 11 PM. Latest analysis
indicates W-SW flow aloft across the FA this aftn with an upper
trough approaching the central/southern Appalachians. At the
surface, a cold front is still well off to our NW from western
NY to the OH Valley. A weak sfc warm front lifted north through
the CWA earlier this morning, allowing dew pts to surge into the
low-mid 70s across SE VA/NE NC, though they are now mixing out
into the upper 60s to lower 70s area- wide. Thus far, widely
scattered showers and tstms have started across south central VA
and into eastern/central NC, but have been struggling to
intensify despite ample thermodynamic profiles- ML CAPE
1500-3000 J/Kg, DCAPE>1000 J/Kg, and 0-3 km lapse rates ~8.5C.
What is limited is likely that weak riding is still in place in
the H7-H5 layer. After ~5 PM, height falls are forecast to push
into the piedmont as the trough aloft moves in from the west,
shifting towards the coast through ~8PM. This will lead to
increasing deep layer shear (to 25-35 kt), though mid level
lapse rates are still very marginal at best 5.5C to ~6C/Km.
Latest SPC discussion mentions an 80% chc for a SVR Watch as
this occurs, so continue to monitor forecast updates. Given all
of this, there will be threat for strong to severe storms,
mainly from about 5PM -9PM (potentially lingering a few hrs
longer near the coast). 18Z soundings from LWX/RNK show a well
mixed inverted V profile sounding, with straight line damaging
winds gusts as the main severe mode. A brief spin up cannot be
completely ruled out, especially across NE portions of the area
mainly due to localized land/marine interactions. As for hail,
expect the potential for small hail, but large hail will likely
be hard to come by due to marginal mid-level lapse rates.
Finally, storms will be moving rather quickly so only isolated
instances of flash flooding are expected over urban areas. The
cold front moves through a majority of the area between about 2
Am and 5 AM, night bringing drier air and ending the threat for
any severe weather. However, in typical fashion for the summer
months, the front likely stalls near or just south of the local
area, with a few showers possible in NE NC into early Mon aftn.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler, drier pattern takes hold early this week.
A return to warmer and more humid conditions and the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

Cooler conditions are expected through at least the first half of
next week as an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the
US. In addition, the front from today/tonight lingers near or just
south of the area. The forecast has remainder similar for
Monday with only a small chance for a shower or storm across far
S/SE portions the area, the majority of the area will remain
dry. Much drier air (dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s), near to
slightly below average temperatures (low to mid 80s), and
partly sunny skies should make for pleasant and comfortable day.
Clouds and rain chances expand back a bit further N/NW on
Tuesday as the front to the south begins to lift north. The best
rain chances (scattered showers/storms) on Tuesday will mainly
be near/along the Albemarle Sound in NC with lower chances off
to the N/NW. Temperatures stay in the low-mid 80s (upper
70s/around 80 closer to the coast) on Tuesday with the increase
in cloud cover, precipitation chances, and onshore flow. Warmer
and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions
of the week as the trough begins to break down and a warm front
lifts through the area. The Thursday-Friday timeframe likely
becomes more active preciptation-wise as another front
approaches and crosses the area from the NW. We are also
watching for another severe weather potential, with SPC
highlighting northern portions of the area in a day 5 15% severe
weather outlook. In addition, temperatures may approach Heat
Advisory criteria for portions of the area on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail with mainly SCT cu and S-SW winds around
10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt across the main terminals. However,
starting to see widely scattered showers and a few tstms off to
the W/SW of the region (and also along the Carolina coast).
Precise timing and coverage remains uncertain, but the greatest chances
for flight restrictions appear to be from around 22Z-03Z (latest
at SBY). Have included TEMPO groups for TSRA at all terminals,
primarily from 22Z-02Z, except 00-04Z at SBY. Some storms may
be severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, but
for the TAFs have limited to gusts to 30-35 kt for now. Storms
taper to rain showers later in the evening/overnight before ending.
MVFR CIGs potentially develop after midnight, mainly closer to
the coast. Winds are forecast to shift from SW to the N-NW between
07-10Z at RIC/SBY, and a few hrs later for SE VA/NE NC. Gusts
to ~20 kt are likely through Monday morning/early aftn near the
coast, and a few showers could redevelop in NC and affect ECG
through 18Z/Mon (though chances are 30% or less).

Outlook: Any lingering SHRA are expected to be south of the region
later Monday, with VFR/dry conditions to prevail Mon night. Becoming
more unsettled on Tuesday, with the potential for a few showers, mainly
for SE VA/NE NC, and then all areas late Tue night into early Wed
AM. Primarily dry/VFR conditions return for Wednesday through most
of Thursday, with showers/tstms possible late Thu/early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches. Bay this
  evening through tomorrow morning for SE winds of 15-20kt, becoming
  NW early tomorrow.

A warm front is currently draped across the northern local waters
this afternoon, with winds generally the SE-SW. Winds have increased
to 10-15 kts this afternoon, and gusts around 15 kts, with a few
marine observation sites already seeing gusts to 15-20 kts. The
seabreeze influence also has a few areas in the Bay seeing more
easterly winds. Waves in the Bay are generally 1 ft or less, with
seas in the coastal waters seeing between 2-3 ft.

A cold front is approaching the area this afternoon and winds will
likely continue to ramp up some over the next few hours. SCAs are in
effect for the Bay, though winds will remain more marginal with this
initial surge ahead of the front. Winds and seas will fall slightly
short of SCA criteria in the coastal waters, though there may be a
few gusts to 25 kts across the nearshore coastal waters this
afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms will start to develop this
afternoon and evening along the front, bringing the potential for
severe wind gusts (50 kt+), isolated waterspouts, and small hail.
This storm threat will be handled with Special Marine Warnings as
needed. In the wake of the front on Monday morning, winds will shift
to the northwest and surge to 15-20 kts. While there will likely be
a slight decrease in winds tonight, the SCA for the Bay extends
through Monday morning to cover this secondary surge. High pressure
will build in behind the front, allowing winds to diminish pretty
quickly by Monday afternoon. Marine conditions will remain benign
through mid week as flow of 5-10 kt becomes onshore on Tuesday, then
shifts to the south on Wednesday. Another front will approach the
area by late week and could bring elevated winds to the coastal
waters on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AC/NB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-
528>531-152300-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
646 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-152300-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-
646 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the late
evening. The primary hazard is localized damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VAZ100-150000-
Northampton VA-
716 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHAMPTON COUNTY THROUGH 800
PM EDT...

At 716 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Cape Charles, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
         unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
         vehicles. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Cape Charles around 725 PM EDT.
  Cheriton and Bay View around 735 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Simpkins, Capeville,
Townsend, Kiptopeke State Park, Oyster, Eastville, Cheapside,
Kiptopeke, Plantation, and Machipongo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
eastern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 7594 3709 7603 3730 7608 3748 7601
      3750 7599 3727 7573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 226DEG 23KT 3719 7615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

HET

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
719 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 SW Raleigh Terrace    36.96N 76.42W
06/14/2026  M69 MPH          ANZ639             VA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DOMV2 Dominion Terminal.

&&

JM