Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures, dew points, and rain chances have decreased for
Tuesday. An unsettled pattern continues through the rest of the
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity persists today with isolated to scattered
showers and storms possible late this afternoon into this evening.

2) An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of the week.
However, uncertainty remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity persists today with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon into this
evening.

Afternoon weather analysis showed generally zonal flow aloft with a
shortwave moving from OH into WV noted by a change to NW flow aloft.
At the surface, the Bermuda high continues to remain off the SE
coast. As such, hot and humid conditions continue with temps as of 2
PM in the lower 90s and heat indices around 100F. Afternoon highs in
the low-mid 90s are expected with heat indices around 100F.

The latest radar indicates a healthy MCS across WV into far S PA.
This line of storms is much more robust than CAMs showed. As such,
it remains unclear how much this line of storms will hold together
as it crosses the mountains of WV/VA. CAMs generally show only
isolated convection east of the mountains later this afternoon into
this evening apart from the ARW which keeps convection going all the
way to the coast. While mesoanalysis shows some lingering MLCIN
across SE VA/NE NC, it also shows S winds east of the mountains
(presumably due to a lee trough) and 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With
S winds (as opposed to SW winds that CAMs had) and an unstable
environment east of the mountains with favorable low-level
instability along and north of I-64, it is entirely possible
that CAMs are wrong and this line of storms continues into
central VA later this afternoon into this evening. If it does, a
severe risk for predominantly damaging winds will exist.
Currently SPC has a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms
along and north of I-64 with a portion of Dorchester County in a
slight risk (level 2/5). However, if the storms do make it
across the mountains, this threat may need to be expanded and/or
increased. Outside of the severe potential, locally heavy
rainfall is possible with any storms. WPC has a marginal ERO
across far northern portions of the area to account for this
potential. Convection should taper off overnight with remnant
cloud cover potentially lingering. Lows tonight in the 70s are
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder
of the week. However, uncertainty remains high.

NW/WNW flow aloft develops Tue through the remainder of the week as
a ridge aloft builds across the central CONUS while a trough lingers
across New England and Canada. At the surface, the Bermuda high will
start to break down. This will allow for an active pattern to
persist with a daily potential for isolated to scattered storms each
afternoon/evening. CAMs show multiple rounds of MCSs developing in
the WNW/NW flow aloft. However, where they track and when they
develop will have large implications to the local weather. Most CAMs
have an overturned airmass moving into the region in the wake of
today's MCS for Tue. As such, HREF (as well as most individual
models/CAMs) show dew points in the upper 60s to around 70F Tue
afternoon (as opposed to the mid 70s from the NBM) and lower
surface temps. Therefore, have blended in lower guidance for dew
points but held off (for now) on dropping high temps by more
than a degree or two due to uncertainty regarding whether or not
partial clearing can occur during the afternoon. This resulted
in heat indices remaining below heat advisory criteria. As such,
no heat headlines will be issued at this time. Will note that
latest guidance keeps temps even cooler than the current
forecast. In general, highs in lower 90s are the most likely
scenario with locally upper 80s or mid 90s possible Tue.
Additionally, as a result of the overturned airmass, widespread
cloud cover and mixed dew points could result in very little
instability Tue afternoon. HREF mean CAPE only shows around 500
J/kg for most of the area (which for August is very low). As
such, confidence in storm development (and especially severe
potential) for Tue has decreased substantially. Nevertheless,
SPC has maintained a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms
across most of the area with a slight risk (level 2/5) across
portions of Piedmont. WPC has also maintained a marginal ERO
across the area for Tue.

SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms
across southern portions of the FA Wed. However, confidence
continues to remain low given uncertainty in aforementioned MCS
timing and impacts. For now, have largely kept NBM PoPs
(15-35%) to account for the potential for isolated to scattered
storms. By Tue, models should have a better handle on what
weather we can expect for Wed. Beyond Wed, the pattern remains
similar with only a slight chance (15-20%) for a few isolated
showers or storms on Thu with a better chance on Fri (30-50%
PoPs). Outside of convection, temps remain near normal with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wed and Thu and mid 80s to
lower 90s Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail through the 18z taf period. The
stable airmass that has persisted through much of the day should
gradually destabilize later this afternoon. As such, expect
FEW-SCT CU to develop with CIGs around 5000ft. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms may move into northern portions of
the area later this afternoon into this evening with the
greatest chance north of I-64. However, confidence in the
convection holding together as it crosses the mountains is low.
As such, added a PROB30 for SBY from 23z-02z to account for the
potential. While most CAMs don't show the line of storms
reaching RIC, current radar suggests a much more organized line
of storms than CAMs showed. As such, there appears to be
potential that this line of storms currently moving into WV
holds together as it crosses the mountains and impacts RIC.
Therefore, have added a PROB30 for RIC from 21z-01z to account
for this potential. Cannot rule out this convection reaching the
coast (and SE terminals), however, confidence is too low to
reflect in the TAFs at this time. Convection should taper off
overnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies Tue.

Outlook: Expect predominate VFR conditions prevail Tue through
Thu. However, daily low-end chances for isolated to scattered
showers and storms exists each day. Along with this comes a
chance for early morning stratus/ground fog each late
night/early morning Wednesday through Friday AM.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through most of
  the week.

Bermuda high pressure remains centered well offshore this afternoon,
with weak sfc low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes. A weak
surface trough is noted over inland portions of the area. The wind
is generally W to SW 5-10 kt. Seas are 1-2ft nearshore, 2-3ft
offshore, with ~1ft waves in the Ches Bay (1-2 ft lower Bay). With a
weak pressure gradient, expect the winds to shift to the S-SE at ~10
kt later this aftn into this evening. Convective coverage is
expected to be isolated to locally scattered this evening with a
heavy lean toward the northern Ches Bay and Atlantic zones for
better coverage. A few hi-res models bring the convection as
far south as the mouth of the Bay and adjacent rivers and
coastal zones but those solutions appear to be outliers from the
consensus. That said, locally gusty winds are the main threat
from any convection that manages to move into the region this
evening. A brief wind shift to NW 8-12kt remains possible early
Tuesday morning as the weak surface trough tracks across the
coast, before becoming light onshore and then southerly by
Tuesday evening. Latest CAM guidance has backed off considerably
on the potential for scattered to numerous storms on Tuesday.
Debris cloudiness from MCS(s) to the W and NW of the area will
likely limit instability and subsequent storm coverage and
intensity Tuesday afternoon and evening. Greater convective
coverage is possible on Wednesday but with low confidence on the
details.

A cold front will gradually approach late in the week and may push
far enough south to shift the wind to the N-NE by late Friday into
next weekend. Models are generally keeping the winds rather light,
but if the front actually pushes south of the waters, this would
potentially bring SCAs, but uncertainty is high at this range. Seas
throughout the week will be ~2ft in the coastal waters, 2-3ft in the
offshore waters, and 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches
Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/RHR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
429 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-090-099-100-
509>522-112030-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-Accomack-
Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
429 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An unsettled pattern continues through the week with daily chances
for isolated to scattered showers and storms. A few storms may be
strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Locally
heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079-087>089-092-097-098-523>525-
528>531-112030-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Brunswick-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-Southampton-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-
Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
429 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible later this
afternoon into this evening. Locally strong to damaging winds are
possible. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

An unsettled pattern continues through the week with daily chances
for isolated to scattered showers and storms. A few storms may be
strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Locally
heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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