Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1017 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended through midnight for
much of the northern tier of the area with ongoing convection.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms are spreading into northern portions of
the CWA, with some potential for additional strong to severe
thunderstorms through midnight and heavy rain persisting overnight.

2) The threat of severe thunderstorms will linger into
Wednesday and the potential for torrential rainfall to produce
scattered instances of flash flooding will also increase through
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1005 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms are spreading into northern portions of
the CWA, with some potential for additional strong to severe thunderstorms
through midnight and heavy rain persisting overnight.

Latest WX analysis indicates showers and storms moving into northern
portions of the CWA. While low level lapse rates and instability
are weak to marginal at best, shear remains strong at 35-45 kt,
along with 0-1 km SRH values to 300-350 m2/s2 analyzed per SPC
mesoanalysis. The overall severe threat is somewhat uncertain
given the minimal instability, but with the strong shear and low
level SRH, additional strong to severe storms will certainly be
possible so have extended the Watch through midnight. Probably
of higher confidence is that additional heavy rain and a hydro
threat will eventually develop and persist overnight given the
PWAT values of 2.00-2.25". The potential for training/backbuilding
storms exists as the front slows overnight into Wednesday/Wednesday
night. An initial Flood Watch has been issued from central VA
to the lower Eastern Shore covering the threat tonight into
Wednesday. This will eventually need to be expanded SE to cover
the later Wednesday/Thursday time period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat of severe thunderstorms will linger
into Wednesday and the potential for torrential rainfall to
produce scattered instances of flash flooding will also increase
through Wednesday night and Thursday.

The severe threat likely continues into Wednesday, but with the
higher probabilities shifted to the south and east ahead of the
aforementioned southward-moving cold front. How convection
evolves today/tonight will also influence the degree of cloud
cover and destabilization potential on Wednesday. That said, the
flow aloft is forecast to remain rather strong (40-50kt at
500mb). SPC has the Slight Risk outlined for our entire CWA (lvl
2/5).

Despite the ongoing drought conditions, Wednesday into
Wednesday night is showing an increasingly confident signal for
localized flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.
WPC has most of the area in a Slight Risk ERO again Wednesday
with PW generally 2- 2.4", and a small Moderate Risk area will
be issued for SE VA into NE NC. Additionally, a small Moderate
Risk area will be introduced including NE NC Thursday. Decent
flow aloft should keep individual cells moving but training
storms on top of the rainfall received today/tonight could cause
scattered instances of flash flooding. A Flood Watch will
eventually be needed for SE VA and NE NC based on the latest
data. All total, the QPF forecast through Thursday has generally
3-5", with locally higher amounts of rain from Richmond and
Emporia eastward to SE MD and NE NC.

Some drier air finally moves back into northern portions of the
region Thursday and Friday but some showers and storms will
remain possible, mainly across the southern and southeastern
portions of the area. Trending drier with below average
temperatures by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 743 PM EDT Tuesday...

Most of the terminals are clear of convection for now, but another
round is expected overnight. The expected timing of convection
tonight through tomorrow evening is a little tough, as we now wait
to see what the second round of storms do tonight which will likely
have an impact on what happens tomorrow. There is more confidence at
the southern terminals for the afternoon convection, so have
included PROB30 at PHF, ORF, and ECG to account for this. CIGs are
forecast to come down overnight into tomorrow morning, with most
terminals (except for ECG) seeing at least a few hours of MVFR CIGs,
with a few hours of brief hours of near IFR CIGs possible at RIC and
maybe SBY. Winds outside of convection will gust to 15-20 kts from
the SW through the TAF period.

Outlook: Additional rounds of storms are possible through
Thursday, and intermittent flight restrictions are likely. Rain
and storm chances shift south by late week, but could still
impact KORF/KPHF down to KECG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Tuesday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the local waters from
  this afternoon into Wednesday.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible today and Wednesday, primarily
  during the afternoons and evening.

SW winds behind the warm front that moved across the area early this
morning are just short of Small Craft Advisory criteria this
afternoon at 15-20 kt in the Ches. Bay and 20-25 kt in the coastal
waters. Winds will continue to gradually increase into the overnight
as the pressure gradient tightens with winds peaking at 15-20 kt
with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches. Bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck
Sound, and 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-34 kt in the coastal waters. A
few gusts around 35 kt will be possible past 20 nm, especially for
the southern zones. These conditions continue into Wed morning, then
diminishing Wed afternoon and evening. SCAs are in effect for all
marine zones (excluding the 20-60 nm zones where SCAs are not
issued) through 1 PM Wed for the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and
tidal rivers and 6 PM for the coastal waters. A surge of northerly
winds is possible Wed night into early Thurs with gusts to 20 kt in
the Ches. Bay, which could need another SCA. Lighter NE winds are
likely Thurs afternoon and into the weekend.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from today through
Thurs morning. Some storms may be severe with strong, erratic winds.
The highest risk is today through overnight across the VA and MD
waters. Additional strong to severe storms are possible Wed into
Thurs.

Seas build to 3-4 ft by this evening as the winds pick up with waves
in the bay increasing to 2-3 ft. Seas of 4-5 ft for southern
nearshore waters and 5-6 ft for the northern nearshore waters are
forecast overnight (6-7 ft offshore). Waves up to 4 ft expected in
the bay overnight. 5+ ft seas may linger as late as Wednesday
night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MDZ022>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     065>069-076>090-092-099-100-509>520-522>525-528.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>637-
     639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ/NB
MARINE...AC/KMC

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 3 SSE Tangier           37.79N 75.97W
07/21/2026  M55 MPH          Accomack           VA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XTSL Tangier Sound Light
            gusted to 48 kt (55 mph).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
748 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Brook Vale         37.75N 76.41W
07/21/2026                   Lancaster          VA   911 Call Center

            Reported debris damaged a transformer at the
            intersection of Devils Bottom Rd and Mary
            Ball Rd.

&&

HET

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
826 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     Hail             Doswell                 37.87N 77.47W
07/21/2026  M2.25 Inch       Hanover            VA   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast media reported a measured hail
            stone of approximately 2.25 inches.

&&

NM

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