Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 18z aviation update
- Temps and heat indices increased a degree or two Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected
this afternoon and evening. There remains a low-end threat for a few
strong-severe storms, as well as for isolated instances of flash
flooding. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

2) A major heat wave is likely beginning Wednesday,
peaking Thursday and Friday. This has the potential to be the
most significant in both magnitude and duration since July 2012
for most of the CWA. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low
through Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected
this afternoon and evening. There remains a low-end threat for a few
strong-severe storms, as well as for isolated instances of flash
flooding. Dry with seasonable temperatures Monday-Tuesday.

Afternoon analysis places a weak frontal boundary draped
(roughly) along I-64. Visible satellite imagery depicts
widespread cloud cover and areas of light rain over the the
region. This boundary, in conjunction with a relatively warm
and moist low- level airmass and a weak shortwave aloft, should
trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms over the next
few hours. While obs depict dew points well into the mid 70s,
the widespread cloud cover and the light precip activity has
kept temps a bit cooler than forecast. This has limited
instability and SPC mesoanalysis only shows around 750-1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Therefore, would expect the convective intensities
to be quite muted, at least over the the next couple of hours.

There still remains some potential for more vigorous activity later
this afternoon and evening if the thermodynamic environment can
recover some. This would be most favored from interior srn VA into
NE NC where some CAMs show upscale growth into a southward-
moving thunderstorm cluster. Loosely organized storms are
possible given bulk shear values around 25 kt. SPC has
maintained a marginal risk for damaging winds in far srn VA and
NE NC. In similar thinking, the best risk for gusty tstm winds
would be where the more favorable low-level lapse rates
currently reside, which is also across srn portions of the
forecast area. PWATs over 2" and slow storms motions also favor
efficient rainfall rates. A "Slight" ERO remains in place across
NE NC to address this potential but don't see enough model
agreement and/or signal for a short-fused Flood Watch at this
time.

Relatively seasonable and dry Monday and Tuesday with high pressure
building down from New England. Highs in the low-mid 80s Monday and
upper 80s-lower 90s Tuesday, under a mostly sunny sky.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A major heat wave is likely beginning Wednesday,
peaking Thursday and Friday. This has the potential to be the
most significant in both magnitude and duration since July 2012
for most of the CWA. Shower/thunderstorm chances remain very low
through Friday morning.

An impactful heat wave is expected during the upcoming week,
particularly late week. Ensembles have remained consistent at
building an anomalously strong upper ridge from the TN/lower OH
Valley Tuesday, slowly drifting E-NE to the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic Thu-Fri. While there remain some subtle differences in
the precise location, confidence is high that this setup will lead
to a significant heat wave for the local area, potentially the most
widespread and of longest duration since July 2012. Given a strong
consensus for H5 heights >595 dm and 850 mb temps of 21-23C, highs
at or above 100 F are likely, especially Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures have also trended a degree or two higher for Wednesday
and there is also a nonzero chance a few areas flirt with 100 F in
the Piedmont. The NBM remains a few degrees above all deterministic
and statistical model guidance, so continue to shave a degree or two
off these values. With temperatures this high, do expect dew points
to mix out quite a bit inland. This could put a cap on the higher-
end heat index scenarios, but we are still likely to be near Extreme
Heat Warning criteria. The weak sfc pressure gradient will also tend
to allow for some aftn seabreeze development, locally bringing
steady or falling late day temperatures. In a similar vane,
slightly lower temperatures at the immediate coast will be
coupled with higher dew points. Therefore, heat indices in these
areas are likely to be similar, or even higher, than inland
locations. Regardless, the latest forecast shows heat indices of
105-110 F fairly widespread for Thursday through Saturday (with
pockets of 110+ possible). Regarding any potential headlines,
it remains a bit too early to refine down the exact details. For
example, we may need a Heat Advisory for portions of the area
Wednesday, followed by Extreme Heat headlines the following
days. We will take another look at this in the forthcoming
forecast updates, though confidence is quite high in eventually
needing Extreme Heat Watches for at least the Thursday-Friday
timeframe. The bottom line is that preparations should be made
now for a period of very hot temperatures/heat indices late next
week.

The only real opportunity for showers and storms in this pattern
would be with seabreeze-initited convection along the coast. These
large heat domes also bring a risk of "ring of fire" type convective
complexes, i.e., thunderstorm clusters riding the northern periphery
of the ridge. However, with the heat ridge centered over
western VA/eastern KY, this does not appear very likely. PoPs
are negligible Wednesday and Thursday, with 15-30% PoPs by late
Friday as the ridge starts to break down and seabreeze
convection becomes increasingly likely. This will all be better
resolved as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

A weak frontal boundary is draped across the region this
afternoon (roughly along a ORF-RIC line), with light NE winds
on the N side of the boundary and light S or variable winds on
the S side. SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs also remain across the region, but
these should gradually scour over the next few hours, though SBY
may remain MVFR through most of today. Still expect showers and
storms to develop over the next few hours, becoming
particularly focused near the aforementioned frontal boundary.
Would expect a chance of SHRA/TSRA at RIC and SBY first this
afternoon, followed by the SE terminals (ORF, PHF, and ECG) by
this evening as storms potentially grow into a cluster and
slowly move to the south. Any storm could produce heavy rain,
reduced VSBY, and localized higher winds. Showers/storms taper
off early tonight. Widespread flight conditions are expected at
all terminals later tonight into Monday morning with widespread
IFR (and possible LIFR) likely due to patchy fog and low CIGs.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to return later Monday
morning and continue through most of next week as high pressure
builds S across the area and then settles offshore. Other than
isolated showers/storms, mostly dry conditions are expected
through the upcoming week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail through much
  of the week. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected late
  this afternoon and this evening ahead of a weak cold front.

Latest weather analysis shows high pressure east of Bermuda this
afternoon, with a weak, wavy quasi-stationary frontal boundary
draped across the northern portion of the local area. Light
onshore flow ~5 kt nearshore allowing for a light seabreeze to
set up ahead of the front. Winds to increase slightly this
evening, veering around to the NNE ~5-10 kt as the front drops
south across the waters into early this evening. In addition to
the wind shift, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to focus along and just south of the front, with an
isolated strong to severe storm possible that could produce
gusts over 34kt and frequent lightning. Waves 1-2 ft, seas 2-3
ft, highest offshore of 20 NM in building SSE swell.

NNE winds increase to 10-15kt across the waters late this
evening through Monday afternoon. Increasing swell and wind wave
will build seas to 3-5 ft across central and southern waters,
highest across the central and southern offshore ocean zones
east of 20 NM, as a second area of high pressure builds south
through midweek. There is a very low-end chance for nearshore
seas to briefly reach 5 ft Monday evening into early Tuesday,
but given the low chances, will hold off with any SCA issuances
at this time. Otherwise, benign marine conditions are forecasted
through the majority of the week. E-NE winds linger through
Tuesday, veering around the S-SE Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

Rip Currents:

Moderate Rip Risk in place tomorrow for all beaches due to
developing onshore flow and increasing SSE swell/8-10 seconds.
For Tuesday, moderate Rip Risk continues VA Beach and N OBX
Tuesday due to continued swell/onshore flow and seas around
3ft, with Low Rip Risk Eastern Shore beaches. Low Rip Risk all
beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs later next week:

- Site:    Wed 7/1    Thu 7/2    Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4

- RIC:     102/1945   100/1953   100/1954   100/2002
- ORF:     100/1901   100/1901    99/1954    98/1997
- SBY:      98/2012    99/2014    98/1954   100/1919
- ECG:     101/2012    97/1953    98/1954   100/1997

Record High Mins later next week:

- Site:  Thu 7/2    Fri 7/3    Sat 7/4

- RIC:    76/2014    77/2014    77/1900
- ORF:    78/2018    78/2014    79/2012
- SBY:    77/1968    76/2014    78/2012
- ECG:    76/2014    78/2014    78/2012

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...LKB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-097-528>531-291915-
Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Greensville-Sussex-Southampton-Chesapeake-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-
Norfolk-Portsmouth-
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall may produce isolated instances of flash flooding this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Very hot conditions are expected later in the upcoming week, with
heat indices of 105 to 110 likely Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ098-291915-
Virginia Beach-
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall may produce isolated instances of flash flooding this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Very hot conditions are expected later in the upcoming week, with
heat indices of 105 to 110 likely Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-081>086-089-090-
509>525-291915-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Cumberland-
Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Surry-James City-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall may produce isolated instances of flash
flooding this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Very hot conditions are expected later in the upcoming week, with
heat indices of 105 to 110 likely Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-291915-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall may produce isolated instances of flash
flooding this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Very hot conditions are expected later in the upcoming week, with
heat indices of 105 to 110 likely Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-291915-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall may produce isolated instances of flash flooding this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Very hot conditions are expected later in the upcoming week, with
heat indices of 105 to 110 likely Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-291915-
Eastern Currituck-
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall may produce isolated instances of flash flooding this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Very hot conditions are expected later in the upcoming week, with
heat indices of 105 to 110 likely Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.