Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2026

Beach Hazards Statement 2, NWS Wakefield, VA

May 30, 2026Currituck County, North Carolina; City of Virginia Beach, Virginia

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this beach hazards statement at May 30, 2026, 7:53 PM EDT for Currituck County, North Carolina; City of Virginia Beach, Virginia. It took effect at May 31, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 30, 2026, 7:53 PM EDT (23:53 UTC)
In effect from
May 31, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
May 31, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA

Counties Currituck County, NC, City of Virginia Beach, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2026-05-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 287 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2026-05-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 181 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
287 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1022 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
195 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

039 
WHUS41 KAKQ 302353
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
753 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

NCZ102-VAZ098-310800-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.BH.S.0002.260531T1200Z-260601T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
753 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Breaking waves of 3 to 5 ft will result in rough surf 
  conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Eastern Currituck County. In 
  Virginia, Virginia Beach.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip 
currents, longshore currents, sneaker waves, and other hazards 
create life-threatening conditions in the surf zone. Caution 
should be used when in or near the water 

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
868 
WHUS41 KAKQ 310717
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
317 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

NCZ102-VAZ098-010000-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0002.260531T1200Z-260601T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
317 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Breaking waves of 3 to 5 ft will result in rough surf 
  conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Eastern Currituck County. In 
  Virginia, Virginia Beach.

* WHEN...From 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued when threats such as rip
currents, longshore currents, sneaker waves, and other hazards
create life-threatening conditions in the surf zone. Caution
should be used when in or near the water

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$
912 
WHUS41 KAKQ 311734
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
134 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

MDZ021>023-011100-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0002.260601T0500Z-260601T1100Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
134 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Up to one foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...Bay-facing portions of Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM EDT Monday through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/04 PM     2.7        0.7        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/05 AM     3.4        1.4        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/05 PM     2.2        0.2        0.7        1       NONE    
 02/06 AM     2.8        0.8        0.6        1       NONE    
 02/06 PM     2.3        0.3        0.7        1       NONE    
 03/06 AM     3.0        1.0        0.9        1       NONE

BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/02 PM     2.8        0.7        1.1        1       NONE    
 01/02 AM     3.4        1.3        1.2       1-2     MINOR    
 01/03 PM     2.4        0.3        0.7        1       NONE    
 02/03 AM     2.8        0.7        0.6        1       NONE    
 02/04 PM     2.5        0.4        0.8        1       NONE    
 03/04 AM     3.0        0.9        0.8        1       NONE

CRISFIELD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 1.8 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/01 PM     2.8        0.6        1.3        1       NONE    
 01/02 AM     3.4        1.2        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/02 PM     2.3        0.1        0.8        1       NONE    
 02/02 AM     2.8        0.6        0.6        1       NONE    
 02/02 PM     2.2        0.0        0.7        1       NONE    
 03/03 AM     3.1        0.9        0.9        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ075-077-011100-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0002.260601T0500Z-260601T1100Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-
134 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above 
  ground level expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and 
  tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Westmoreland and Northumberland Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM EDT Monday through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/01 PM     2.4        0.9        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/03 AM     2.8        1.3        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/03 PM     2.3        0.8        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/03 AM     2.6        1.1        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/04 PM     2.4        0.9        1.1        1       NONE    
 03/03 AM     2.6        1.1        1.1        1       NONE

DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 3.1 FT, MAJOR 5.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/03 PM     2.7        0.8        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/04 AM     3.0        1.1        1.1        1       NONE    
 01/04 PM     2.5        0.6        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/04 AM     2.9        1.0        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/05 PM     2.6        0.7        1.1        1       NONE    
 03/05 AM     3.0        1.1        1.1        1       NONE

WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 31/01 PM     2.2        0.8        1.1        1       NONE    
 01/12 AM     2.5        1.1        1.0        1       NONE    
 01/12 PM     2.0        0.6        0.9        1       NONE    
 02/12 AM     2.4        1.0        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/01 PM     2.3        0.9        1.2        1       NONE    
 03/01 AM     2.5        1.1        1.1        1       NONE

&&

$$

NCZ102-VAZ098-010000-
/O.CON.KAKQ.BH.S.0002.000000T0000Z-260601T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
134 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Breaking waves of 3 to 5 ft will result in rough surf 
  conditions and a high risk of rip currents.

* WHERE...In North Carolina, Eastern Currituck County. In 
  Virginia, Virginia Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away 
  from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions.

&&

$$
384 
WHUS41 KAKQ 010018
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
818 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

NCZ102-VAZ098-010130-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.BH.S.0002.000000T0000Z-260601T0000Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
818 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

$$

MDZ021>023-010830-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0002.260601T0500Z-260601T1100Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
818 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Wicomico and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

CAMBRIDGE MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/05 AM     3.4        1.4        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/05 PM     2.2        0.2        0.7        1       NONE    
 02/06 AM     2.9        0.9        0.7        1       NONE    
 02/06 PM     2.4        0.4        0.8        1       NONE    
 03/06 AM     3.0        1.0        0.9        1       NONE

BISHOPS HEAD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.2 FT, MODERATE 3.7 FT, MAJOR 4.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 1.6 FT, MAJOR 2.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/02 AM     3.4        1.3        1.2        2      MINOR    
 01/03 PM     2.4        0.3        0.7        1       NONE    
 02/03 AM     2.8        0.7        0.6        1       NONE    
 02/04 PM     2.7        0.6        1.0        1       NONE    
 03/04 AM     3.1        1.0        0.9        1       NONE    
 03/04 PM     2.2        0.1        0.5        1       NONE

CRISFIELD MD
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 4.0 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 1.8 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/02 AM     3.4        1.2        1.2        1       NONE    
 01/02 PM     2.3        0.1        0.8        1       NONE    
 02/02 AM     2.8        0.6        0.6        1       NONE    
 02/02 PM     2.5        0.3        1.0        1       NONE    
 03/03 AM     3.2        1.0        1.0        1       NONE    
 03/03 PM     2.1       -0.1        0.6        1       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ075-077-010830-
/O.CON.KAKQ.CF.S.0002.260601T0500Z-260601T1100Z/
Westmoreland-Northumberland-
818 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Up to one half foot of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low- lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...Westmoreland and Northumberland Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

LEWISETTA VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/02 AM     2.9        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 01/03 PM     2.3        0.8        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/03 AM     2.7        1.2        1.1        1       NONE    
 02/04 PM     2.4        0.9        1.1        1       NONE    
 03/03 AM     2.6        1.1        1.1        1       NONE    
 03/03 PM     2.0        0.5        0.8        1       NONE

DAHLGREN/COLONIAL BEACH VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 3.1 FT, MAJOR 5.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/04 AM     3.0        1.1        1.1        1       NONE    
 01/04 PM     2.5        0.6        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/04 AM     3.0        1.1        1.1        1       NONE    
 02/05 PM     2.6        0.7        1.1        1       NONE    
 03/05 AM     3.0        1.1        1.1        1       NONE    
 03/05 PM     2.4        0.5        0.9        1       NONE

WINDMILL POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/12 AM     2.6        1.2        1.1        1       NONE    
 01/12 PM     2.1        0.7        1.0        1       NONE    
 02/01 AM     2.6        1.2        1.2        1       NONE    
 02/01 PM     2.4        1.0        1.3        1       NONE    
 03/02 AM     2.6        1.2        1.2        1       NONE    
 03/01 PM     2.0        0.6        0.9        1       NONE

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at May 30, 7:36 PM EDT, 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • 1) Dry and pleasant conditions continue through Sunday. 2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE). 3) Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.
Area forecast discussion, May 30, 7:36 PM EDT, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
736 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.
Extended Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and pleasant conditions continue through Sunday.

2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms across mainly
southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in the far SE).

3) Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the lower bay, tidal
James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with nuisance- minor
flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of the MD Eastern
Shore Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and pleasant conditions continue through
Sunday.

An omega blocking pattern is staring to weaken across North
America this afternoon, though anomalous ridging persists over
central Canada flanked by a strong troughing over New England
and the Canadian maritimes. A sfc cold front has finally pushed
south of the area, with elevated N-NE winds along the coast (and
N-NW winds inland). Mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures
now mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland W of the Bay,
and in the low-mid 70s closer to the coast and across the
eastern shore. Dew pts have dropped into the upper 30s to
lower-mid 40s over much of the region, with readings still in
the 50s over the far SW and along the coast. For tonight, winds
diminish shortly after sunset inland, but will remain elevated
through the evening closer to the coast, as sfc high pressure
across the Great Lakes builds SE. With the sfc high settling
overhead by early Sunday, expect lows to be rather cool for late
May, with widespread mid to upper 40s for the piedmont, and even
into some rural locations east of I-95. At the coast, lows will
mainly range through the 50s. On Sunday, light flow and a mainly
sunny sky will prevail with the sfc high in control (some SCT
cumulus in the SE possible). High temperatures will be below
average, with mid-upper 70s inland, and low-mid 70s near the
coast. Increasing clouds and milder Sunday night with lows in
the 50s to near 60 F. Could see a few light showers toward
daybreak Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) There is a chance for showers and a few storms
across mainly southern portions of the area on Monday (likely in
the far SE).

A potent northern stream trough and cold front dives out of
Eastern Canada Monday, with the trough digging across the
Northeast CONUS, eventually dropping south and possibly trying
to become cut off by Wednesday off the Carolina coast. The sfc
low is forecast to pass by south of the CWA Monday, and there
will be at least a chance for rain showers across the southern
1/2 of the area, with PoPs likely to categorical into southside
Hampton Roads and NE NC. Heavy rain is not anticipated, but QPF
amounts have continued to trend up, with 0.25-0.50" along the
Albemarle sound in NE NC, tapering sharply to 0.10" or less into
most of VA through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect high temperatures
on Monday to hover around 80 degrees inland and the 70s closer
to the coast.

Temperatures likely remain below average Tuesday and Wednesday
(highs in the 70s) before a gradual rebound to average and
potentially above average by the second half of the week as the
heights rise over the eastern US.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Nuisance tidal flooding is possible in the
lower bay, tidal James River, and Atlantic coast tonight, with
nuisance- minor flooding possible in the upper bay/bayside of
the MD Eastern Shore Sunday night.

With increasing N-NE winds behind the cold front, water levels will
become slightly elevated along the Atlantic coast and in areas
adjacent to the lower bay/tidal James tonight. Forecast water levels
0.3-0.5 feet below minor flood stage attm. No plans for any statements
tonight. When winds turn to the S-SW Sunday night, nuisance to low-
end minor flooding is possible on the upper bay (especially at Bishop's
Head and perhaps Cambridge and Crisfield).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z/31 TAF period as high
pressure settles over the region. Generally SKC skies expected
over the terminals for most of the period, with the exception of
BKN clouds over SBY early in the period and FEW-SCT clouds
pressing in from the south late in the period. Gusty onshore
winds diminish later this evening, becoming light and variable.
Will likely see a sea breeze develop tomorrow afternoon,
bringing an E-SE winds at ~10kt to ORF/ECG and perhaps PHF.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into early
Monday. An area of low pressure passes by south of the region
Monday, bringing a chance for showers- SE terminals could see a
few flight restrictions, but they are very unlikely elsewhere.
N-NE winds could once again be elevated along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake
  Bay, Lower James River, coastal waters, and Currituck Sound
  into tonight.

- Generally benign wind conditions are favored on Sunday and
  Monday, except for a brief period of low-end SCAs possible
  Sunday night on the bay.

- SCAs are possible with NE winds from Tue-Wed, but there is a
  lot of uncertainty regarding this scenario.

The dry cold front crossed the local waters this morning. NE
winds in its wake were 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt (highest in
the lower Ches Bay and coastal waters). Waves and seas have
increased to 2-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively. Will note that 6-7
ft seas are possible across the NC coastal waters overnight,
however, confidence was not high enough to explicitly forecast
those values. Farther offshore (20-60 NM), seas are expected to
build to 6-7 ft (potentially 6-8 ft) tonight. Recent
observations and model trends have indicated that winds are a
bit higher than originally anticipated and may remain elevated
a bit longer. As such, have extended SCAs. SCAs are now in
effect until 1 AM Sun for the Ches Bay and Lower James and 4 AM
Sun for the Currituck Sound. Will note that SCAs may need to be
extended a bit longer across the mouth of the bay. Additionally,
while winds are expected to diminish overnight into Sun, model
guidance indicates that swell may keep seas elevated at 4-5 ft
through the day across most of the coastal waters. As such, have
extended SCAs well into the day on Sun to account for the
elevated seas. Otherwise, winds become light and variable on Sun
as high pressure builds in, becoming SE Sun evening as the high
moves offshore. A brief surge is possible Sun evening as SE/S
winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, however,
confidence in SCA conditions is low at this time.

Forecast uncertainty increases by the middle of next week. Most of
the deterministic and ensemble guidance shows low pressure deepening
offshore while high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Northeast
CONUS during the Tue-Wed night timeframe. While a period of N-NE
winds is likely (with SCAs conditions) given the pattern, the
proximity of the low to the coast will determine whether we see
winds of 10-20 kt or a more impactful event.

High rip current risk Sunday for southern beaches, moderate rip
current risk northern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634-
     639.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ654.

&&

DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI/RHR/RMM

Nearby

Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2026Beach Hazards Statements in Virginia, 2026Every beach hazards statement in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.