High Wind Watch 2, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
917 AM AKST Sun Jan 11 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation section following 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The first short wave feature that brought gale force winds to the
outer coast continues deteriorate Sunday morning as it races
northward towards the northeast coast. A dry slot that developed
over the central panhandle as this feature vacated the area is
slowly being eroded by the plume of moisture that has already
begun to impact the southern panhandle as of this discussion. Rain
rates will continue to increase through the morning hours, with
gale force southeasterly winds with gusts up to 50 mph as well
lasting into the early afternoon before diminishing. For more
information on the heavy rainfall and ongoing flood watch, see the
hydrology section.

With the main plume of moisture aimed at the southern panhandle,
the rest of the panhandle, particularly from Icy Strait northward,
will see a relative break. Showers will continue through the
morning hours from persistent onshore flow and remnant moisture
and instability from the previous shortwave, but there will be a
noticeable break later Sunday morning. These trailing showers are
capable of producing gusty erratic winds as well as ice pellets.
By the afternoon hours, periods of light to moderate rain will
gradually push northward towards the Icy Strait Corridor and up
Lynn Canal, lasting into Monday.

.LONG TERM...The active weather is expected to continue going into the
long term period. A low moving into the Gulf Sunday will bring
another round of precipitation and winds to the panhandle. The exact
location of this low continues to remain uncertain both in
deterministic and ensemble guidance. But the overall impacts look to
still be seeing increased winds and another significant period of
rain. Current thinking is that the strongest winds will be along the
southern panhandle around the Clarence Strait area as the low moves
up. The heaviest precipitation is also expected to be over the
southern panhandle south of the Icy Strait area. 24 hour rain
amounts in this area look to reach up to 2-3 inches of rain while
the northern panhandle looks to see around 1-1.5 inches of rain
during this time. With the warmer temperatures already in the area,
most places will stay rain but snow is possible, especially for
locations in the Northern Lynn canal area. Another concern with this
low is where does it track. If the low tracks closer to land and
then into Canada, a lot of locations could potentially see a surge
of winds during the day on Monday.

Behind this low, the active weather is expected to continue into the
middle of the week. Another atmospheric river looks to move into the
area for Tuesday. This could potentially bring another shot of
significant rain and strong winds to the area. Especially Tuesday
evening headed into Wednesday morning as the low moves through the
Gulf waters. Like the system on Sunday, there is still significant
disagreements on the exact locations due to model uncertainty in
ensembles as well as the NBM. This will need to be watched for any
potential changes in track and intensity over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the northern panhandle, ongoing VFR to MVFR flight
conditions with CIGS generally AoB 4000ft and VIS as low as 4SM
within heavier showers particularly impacting the NE Gulf
coastline. Conditions have begun to clear into this morning for
parts of Icy Strait Corridor and up into northern Lynn Canal,
however these clearer conditions will diminish again to MVFR with
CIGs dropping to AoB 2000 ft and VIS dropping again to 4SM as the
next round of precipitation moves up from the south. Chances for
conditions to drop to IFR exist late tonight and into tomorrow
morning as the heaviest precipitation moves through the northern
panhandle, with CIGs AoB 800 ft possible as well as drops to VIS
to below 3 SM at the heaviest rates.

For the southern panhandle, a system with moderate to heavy rain
and elevated winds is pushing into the southern and central
panhandle as of this morning, keeping flight conditions
deteriorated down to MVFR with CIGS AoB 1500ft and VIS as low as
3SM. Conditions dropping to IFR from CIGS AoB 1000 ft at
Metlakatla and Ketchikan are likely throughout the morning and
into tonight as the heaviest rain pushes through. Worst flight
conditions will remain across the southern panhandle TAF sites
with likely drops to IFR VIS and CIGS as moderate to heavy rain
rates move into the southern panhandle this morning through
today.

Strongest sustained winds will remain across the S Panhandle
through Sunday early afternoon as front pushes inland, with
sustained winds up to 25 kts with gusts up to 45 kts likely for
Ketchikan and Annette Island. In addition, strong S to SE-ly LLWS
around 2000 ft will be a concern across the S Panhandle TAF sites
through Sunday afternoon, with strongest LLWS up to 60kts
expected near Ketchikan and Metlakatla as front pushes inland,
gradually decreasing by 06z Sunday evening. Winds above the
surface will shift from a SE-ly direction to S becoming SW into
the end of the TAF period as the next system approaches around 15
to 18z tomorrow, however the LLWS will not be as strong as the
system today. Surface winds will also begin to increase again into
the end of the TAF period across the majority of the panhandle
with this oncoming system.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Winds diminished slightly overnight across the
northern channels overnight into Sunday, but the southern
channels will continue to increase to mid gale force of around 40
kt with gusts up to 50 kt, especially in Clarence Strait as
another new short wave moves north behind the first one. Southerly
winds of 25 to 35 kt will likely linger in the southern channels
through at least Monday before diminishing. Seas will mostly be
wind driven waves with the highest being up to 7 to 8 ft in
Clarence Strait Sunday though some southerly swell will cause
higher seas up to 18 ft near ocean entrances exposed to the south.

Gulf Waters: The first in a series of short wave features is
moving inland over the northeast coast early Sunday morning. The
next short wave will be moving north farther east spreading
another area of gale force conditions to the SE gulf and Dixon
Entrance area for Sunday, with winds already ramping up in the
southeast gulf as of this discussion. Expect southerly winds of
25 to 35 kt to persist in that area through at least Monday before
diminishing Monday night. Seas are rather high with 15 to 20 ft
seas being rather common, driven by a 12 to 14 ft S swell with a
15 sec period. Seas overall are expected to remain rather high (in
the 10 to 20 ft range with higher seas in the SE part of the
gulf) through Monday at least with persistent high S swell through
that entire period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Sunday sees another low pressure move up along the moisture feed,
bringing an additional surge of rain primarily for the southern
half of the panhandle. Expecting IVTs to be somewhat lower, less
than 500 kg/ms, but with healthy divergence aloft, strong low
level flow, and high freezing levels, rain to be fairly efficient.
The southern and central panhandle could see 1.5 to 3.0
additional inches with higher amounts near Ketchikan and
Metlakatla, and rainfall rates could exceed 0.2 inches per hour
during the Sunday morning and early afternoon timeframe. Main
concerns right now are ponding of water in low lying areas, along
with rapid increases in creeks and streams. What is particularly
uncertain at this time is the current state of the snowpack at
higher elevations. As snow levels look to rise to above 4000 ft in
the south, cold rain will fall on these higher snowpacks. If the
snowpack is primed or near primed, additional runoff could be
wrapped up into existing rainfall, adding to the fuel for any
flooding in the area.

Additionally, Tuesday looks increasingly likely to have
additional moisture move into the area. While IVT values look to
exceed 500 kg/ms, details regarding location and magnitude of
moisture are not fully clear at the moment. Stay tuned for
details.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch through Monday morning for AKZ326>332.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ330.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-661.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-033>035-053-642>644-651-652-
     662>664-671-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...NC

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