Gale Warning 95, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
937 AM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.UPDATE...After 18z TAF issuance for the Aviation section...
Cloud shield spreading over the forecast area with the lower deck
across the southern two thirds of the panhandle.  Ceilings of 1500
to 3000 feet.  Spotty light rain this morning, but will see the rain
become more widespread through late afternoon and overnight. Will
see the cloud decks lowering, and visibility restrictions in the
rain starting overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 551 AM Sun Jul 5...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A stronger low pressure system and front will impact the
  panhandle later Sunday into early next week. This system is
  expected to bring widespread rain, likely heavy across southern
  panhandle, and gusty winds.

- Outer coastal and inner channel winds and seas will also
  increase and become elevated with the strong low pushing through
  the Gulf.

- The active weather pattern to continue as another system looks
  to impact the region by late week.

SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...Another mostly cloudy and
cool day with pre-frontal showers increasing ahead of stronger
low pushing through the Gulf. Afternoon temps will climb into the
mid 50s to low 60s. A front extending from the low will lift
northeast towards the panhandle late Sunday night, with rain
becoming widespread over the panhandle by daybreak Monday.
Moderate to heavy rain, along with breezy winds, will be possible,
mainly across the southern panhandle. Multiple fronts and lows
will rotate around the parent low in the eastern gulf and through
the panhandle, bringing rounds of moderate to heavy rain and
breezy to windy conditions, especially over the southern
panhandle. Current rain totals through Monday night look to be
around 2 to 3 inches for Annette Island and Ketchikan and 1 to 2
inches for Prince of Wales Island. Localized areas could see
slightly more, or less, depending on the help of orographic lift.
Other areas of the panhandle are less likely to receive as high of
rain amounts. The central panhandle will generally see 0.5 to 1
inch, and northern panhandle will generally see around 0.25 to 0.5
inches. Southeasterly winds will increase out ahead of the
initial front on Monday across the southern panhandle. Gusts could
approach 40 mph from the late morning through early evening hours
for locations across Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island and
Ketchikan Borough. However confidence in this occurring is low at
this point, so held off on a Wind Advisory issuance for this
forecast package. Either way, expect breezy to windy conditions
across the southern panhandle. Breezy east to southeast winds will
also develop further north up to the Icy Strait corridor.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/...The main low in the eastern
Gulf will sit offshore, slowly weakening after the stronger front on
Monday evening/night moves northward through the early morning hours
on Tuesday. Following this front is a dry slot at 700 mb that moves
into the outer coastline and into PoW up to Baranof Island, ahead of
one last band of precipitation rotating around the multivortex low
before it fully weakens. This will keep some potential for
thunderstorms, still largely offshore, overnight into the morning
hours on Tuesday corresponding with a swath of higher CAPE values
and PVA aloft just along the coast. This may bring potential for
thunderstorm development into PoW and Baranof Island, but highest
chances remain offshore in the eastern Gulf. The low itself is
weakened by this point, as is the synoptic setup aside from lapse
rates / CAPE / dry air aloft, so these may not end up being as
impactful especially as heating still looks unlikely over the land
areas from how early in the morning this will be. This next weak
band of moisture will push into the southern panhandle and
coastline, though it is uncertain as to how far inland it will even
make it due to the weakening low and the upper level low gradually
sliding SE to sit over the majority of the panhandle.

Either way, more uncertainty returns for Wednesday into Thursday as
guidance begins to diverge on if a surface trough will push across
from a weak low near Anchorage, ahead of another system beginning
to develop in the western Gulf from a Bering Sea low. As of now,
cloud cover and precipitation appears to last through the week
with the chances for a longer break looking most possible on
Wednesday, though the weak trough or remnants from the low may
keep some shower activity over the area ahead of this end of week
system.

AVIATION.../through 12z Monday/... Conditions this morning are
generally borderline MVFR to VFR with the lowest CIGs at 2,000 ft.
There are also a lot low hanging clouds that are scattered around
TAF sites due to the dry slot moving out of the area and an
upcoming frontal system moving in. The largest concern today is
the rain that is associated with this incoming front. With rain
comes reduced visibility and ceilings, however, guidance is not
picking up on extremely deteriorated conditions associated with
this system. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR, but this would be
at the end of the period, so confidence is not super high. TAFs do
hint to deteriorating conditions, though. The confidence for rain
begins to increase around 18-21Z, but high confidence for rain
comes around 3-6Z on the 6th.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the gulf today are
expected to build as a front moves into the area. There is high
confidence in winds over 25kts associated with this front, but it
is not highly likely that sustained winds will reach over 30kts.
Winds are expected to peak early in the morning on Monday and are
likely to decrease through the day. Waves are also expected to
peak around this time, with wave heights reaching up to 11ft
between Cape Fairweather and Cape Spencer as this is the location
of the highest expected winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): As the incoming front moves across the
inner channels, winds are expected to be gusty and shifty. Winds
in the inner channels are expected to pick up Sunday evening,
especially at ocean entrances and in Clarence Strait. Southeast
winds are expected to be channeled up Dixon Entrance, so winds are
expected to each 25-30kts. Winds from 15-20kts can be expected
across the rest of the panhandle, except for Sumner Strait with
winds expected to reach 20-25kts. Elevated winds are expected
through the day Monday and are then likely to return to maximum
speeds of 10-15kts on Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP

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