Gale Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1121 AM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

.UPDATE...Update for the 18Z TAF issuance...
Only minor edits to the forecast this morning as a weakening low
moves across the northern panhandle towards the Yukon. Upped the
winds this morning near Juneau as they are breezy out of the
southeast. Winds are also gusty from the south in Lynn Canal and
up towards Haines and Skagway. Otherwise, onshore flow behind the
system will bring light to moderate rain through tonight before
the next stronger storm force low and warm front bring the high
winds and heavier rain for Tuesday. A High Wind Watch remains in
effect for most of SEAK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Brief break for Monday before another stronger storm force
 system moves in for Tuesday.

-Significant increase in seas for the eastern Gulf of Alaska and
 coastal panhandle with the fast moving system Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM...
A plethora of weather phenomena to be found overnight Sunday
heading into the start of the week here in southeast Alaska. The
primary feature of note is a decaying gale force low that is in
the process of becoming decoupled from its upper level support.
This feature is set to lift northward into the Yukon through the
morning hours, bringing a northerly to southerly wind shift for
the northern inner channels and a brief period of gusty winds.

Moisture expanding outward from this low pushed far enough west
to produce some freezing rain in the vicinity of Yakutat, observed
at the airport. A winter weather advisory was issued for minor
ice accumulations up to a light glaze, primarily for locations
further inland, through early Monday morning. For the far northern
panhandle including the Klondike and Haines Highways, the period
of northerly winds ahead of the approaching gale force low brought
snow levels down enough to see accumulating snow. A heavier band
set up over the upper portions of the Haines Highway past Klukwan,
and a winter weather advisory was issued through Monday morning
based upon satellite observed precip rates as well as DoT camera
images.

A weak upper level low in the central gulf will quickly move
northward today, bringing brief light to moderate precipitation to
Yakutat, with some minor snow accumulations possible. This will
then diminish, eventually phasing with a prefrontal wave set to
bring more light to moderate precipitation to the panhandle Monday
night. For more information on the next impactful system on the
horizon, see the long term section.

.LONG TERM...
After a less active Monday, a strong low pressure system pushes
northward through the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday. Although a period
of heavy rain will return with this system, it will mainly be an
impactful wind event. High Wind Watches, for wind gusts around 60
mph, have been issued for a majority of the panhandle as this low
pressure system creates a very strong pressure gradient. Even
though confidence has increased on these impactful high winds,
there is still a chance for the low pressure system to have a
different track as it moves north through the gulf. If the low
tracks closer to the panhandle, and moves inland near Cape
Fairweather, stronger winds will impact most of the panhandle,
especially near the Icy Strait Corridor to Skagway. If the low
pressure system stays slightly more west, and moves inland north
of Yakutat, the stronger winds will occur near Yakutat and along
the northeast gulf. No matter the solution, this system will allow
for winds and wind gusts to quickly increase and create hazardous
conditions.

Along with this wind, there will be moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. Over a 24 hour time frame, the
southern panhandle can see amounts around 2 to 3 inches, with the
northern panhandle seeing slightly less around 1 to 2 inches.
Most of this precipitation will fall as rain expect for over the
far northern Klondike highway. Temperatures over the Klondike
highway remain slightly lower than freezing with snow levels
increasing from 1000 ft to around 2500 ft. This will allow all
precipitation to fall as snow. With heavy precipitation and snow
rates, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the northern
Klondike Highway.

The heaviest precipitation will first begin to move over the
southern panhandle Tuesday morning pushing northward. This means
that the heaviest precipitation will most likely occur before the
strongest wind Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Although
heaviest rain is most likely before the strongest wind,
precipitation will continue through Wednesday before greatly
diminishing. There is a slightly different story for Yakutat as
another system pushes into the northern gulf Thursday into Friday.
This system will again bring moderate to heavy precipitation
over, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty, so this
system will continue to be monitored.

Behind this strong system, a change in weather pattern does
occur. Upper level ridging develops over most of the panhandle
allowing for drier and cooler weather. Yakutat will be the
exception as slightly more active weather continues to push into
the northern gulf.

.AVIATION.../through Tuesday afternoon/...
A couple of weak systems passing through the panhandle will bring
rain and variable visibility and ceilings through Monday night
before a strong front lifts north across the panhandle on Tuesday
bringing deteriorating flight conditions.

Expect generally MVFR flight conditions across the panhandle
through Monday night. VIS and especially CIGs could drop town to
IFR under heavier/steadier rain. VIS and CIGs expected to drop
down to IFR starting across the southern panhandle early Tuesday
morning and spread north towards the northern panhandle by
Tuesday afternoon.

Gusty winds at PAJN, PAHN and PAGY 15-25G25-35 kt will diminish
overnight. Otherwise winds generally 10 kt or less across the
region through tonight. Strong winds 25 to 40 kt with gusts 50 to
60+ kt expected to develop across the southern panhandle by later
Tuesday morning and spread north and reach the northern panhandle
taf sites by later Tuesday afternoon/evening. LLWS will be
increasing as well, with winds 2kft aloft becoming 40-65+ kt.

.MARINE...
Inside Channels: A quick burst of gale force wind gusts are
likely along the Icy Strait corridor and up Lynn Canal this Monday
morning from a low moving inland over the panhandle. Light
northerly winds will soon flip south as the low continues
northward into the Yukon. Expect a brief period of 25 kt
southerlies once the wind switch happens before winds diminish
into Monday night. There will also be another surge of 20 to 25 kt
southerlies Monday night that will move from S to N up the
panhandle as a pre- frontal wave moves through the area. Seas
mainly driven by wind wave though seas near ocean entrances with
southerly exposure are noticeably higher due to high S swell in
the gulf.

Gulf waters: As the low pushing inland over the central outer
coast continues moving northward, winds in the southeast gulf will
have a slow diminishing trend into Monday night. The rest of the
gulf will see lower winds through Monday night, aside from the
northern gulf which will see a slight increase from a weaker
secondary low approaching the Yakutat area through the morning
hours. Winds start ramping up again for Tuesday possibly as high
as storm force as the next strong area of low pressure moves in
from the north pacific. Expect these higher winds to last into
Tuesday night. Seas are rather high ranging from 12 feet in the
central gulf to 20 ft near Dixon Entrance. This is mostly being
driven by a 13 to 15 ft S swell with a period of around 15 sec.
Some improvement in seas expected through the day Monday as the S
swell diminishes to 8 ft, but waves will start building again into
Tuesday afternoon as the next major system starts to move in.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
     for AKZ317>319.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for AKZ318.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
     for AKZ320>322-324-325.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for AKZ323-326>330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-035-036-053-
     641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
243 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

AKZ323-324-326>331-140130-
City and Borough of Sitka-Admiralty Island-Petersburg Borough-
Western Kupreanof Island and Kuiu Island-Prince of Wales Island-
City and Borough of Wrangell-Ketchikan Gateway Borough-City of
Hyder-
243 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

...ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

Another fast moving and wet system is expected for Tuesday into
Tuesday night, bringing more moderate to heavy rain and strong
winds. Total rainfall amounts will be around 1 to 3 inches, with
gusty winds up to 65 mph possible during the event. The heaviest
rainfall rates will occur during the morning and afternoon hours,
tapering off during the evening hours. Strongest wind gusts will
follow the heaviest rain, occurring during the late afternoon into
the evening hours, then tapering off overnight. Additionally,
freezing levels will be rising to 4000 to 6000 ft on Tuesday,
leading to additional snowmelt. Expect rapid rises on smaller area
rivers and streams Tuesday into Tuesday night, but we are not
expecting flooding at this time. Winds and rain will continue to
diminish through the day Wednesday.

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

AKZ317>322-324-325-140000-
City and Borough of Yakutat-Municipality of Skagway-Haines
Borough and Klukwan-Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-Cape
Fairweather to Lisianski Strait-Admiralty Island-City and Borough
of Juneau-
339 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

...ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

Another fast moving and wet system is expected for Tuesday into
Tuesday night, bringing more moderate to heavy rain and strong
winds for northern SEAK. Total rainfall amounts will be around 1.5
to 3.5 inches with gusty winds up to 65 mph possible during the
event. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours, tapering off during the overnight hours.
Strongest wind gusts will follow the heaviest rain, occurring
during the evening and overnight hours, then tapering off
Wednesday morning. Freezing levels will be rising to 2000 to 5000
ft, leading to additional snowmelt. Any areas that are continuing to
see drainage issues or ponding will likely see additional pooling of
water. Winds and rain will continue to diminish through the day
Wednesday.

DS