Gale Warning 28, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1035 PM AKST Mon Feb 9 2026

.UPDATE...Update to include the 06Z TAF issuance...
Minor edits to the forecast this evening. Did bump up southerly winds
in Lynn Canal and Skagway for tonight and Tuesday morning as gusts
of 30 to 35kt being measured at Skagway airport and dock as well
as Eldred Rock. Furthermore, have the Wind Advisory starting
earlier for Skagway, now at 9am Tuesday morning. Confidence is
increasing for a potential upgrade to High Wind Warning for
Skagway given latest observations and forecast trends. Wind
Advisories may also be expanded for more zones across northern
SEAK. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with winds increasing
through the short term as a strong cold front approaches from the
west on Tuesday and passes through the panhandle Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, bringing strong gusty winds and a period
of moderate to possibly heavy rain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Trough of low pressure passing through SEAK through the day
  Tuesday will continue showers and some breezy winds to the
  panhandle.

- A stronger front arrives Tuesday night followed by a new low
  Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM...Main changes to short term today was to narrow down
wind timing and speeds for the incoming system Tuesday into
Wednesday. A low end gale force front is moving into the northern
gulf Tuesday, proceeded by southwesterly 20 to 25 mph winds
across the gulf. Areas of the panhandle near the water will feel
these winds periodically pick up through the rest of Monday night,
with areas around Lynn Canal a bit higher with isolated gale
force gusts. The incoming front is expected to reach the outer
coast of the panhandle midday Tuesday, pushing inland and bringing
strong sustained winds with isolated gales up through the inner
channels through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
Widespread gale to strong gale force wind gusts are expected
during the peak of the system overnight. Areas of the strongest
winds will be the far northern interior panhandle, with Haines
expected to see around 40 to 45 mph wind gusts through this period
and Skagway expected to see closer to 50 to 55 mph wind gusts
starting slightly earlier and for a slightly longer period.
Southern and outer coastal regions of the panhandle are also
expected to see strong winds with gusts around 40 mph, especially
in unsheltered areas near the water and higher elevation areas.
Heaviest rains associated with this system will be along the outer
coast and for higher elevated regions, though a majority of the
panhandle is still expected to see between half an inch to an inch
of rain in 24 hours from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.

High temperatures are still expected to remain in the 40s, with
lows in the mid to upper 30s for most locations Monday night.
Breaks in the clouds for southern and interior areas of the
panhandle will be possible overnight Monday, allowing for areas of
patchy fog to develop through the early morning hours. High
overcast clouds moving in before the main front Tuesday midday
will make sure that any potential lingering fog will dissipate
through Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...An active week continues in the mid-range as a stout
jet continues to feed systems into the north Pacific and the Gulf
of Alaska. As one system weakens Wednesday along southeast, an
additional shortwave trough will reinforce storm development in
the north Pacific, allowing a storm force low to develop near 46N
158W. As this system quickly moves into the Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday night, southeast winds will freshen up along our coast
to gale force and bringing additional moderate to heavy
precipitation. For more wind info, see marine section below.
Touching on precipitation type, temperatures slowly start trending
down through the week, bringing increased chances of snow by
Thursday into the weekend for the north. For next week, the
primary threat remains focused on outflow across the inner
channels, with temperatures dropping into the single digits for
the north and teens for the south, helping to prime southeast for
future snow.

.AVIATION.../through Tuesday evening/...
Mainly MVFR to VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon with
generally terrain driven showers near the airports. VIS and CIGs
will occasionally lower as if showers pass over the TAF sites.
Winds across the southern panhandle will generally be less than 10
kts through the period and if any clearing occurs through the
morning, fog/low stratus could develop and bring lower VIS/CIGs
but confidence is not high. Across the northern panhandle, winds
10-15G20-25kt will increase as a strong front approaches, becoming
15-22g25-32kt by Tuesday afternoon (PAGY 20-25G30-35kt becoming
30-35G45-50kt). Light winds for PAYA will increase to 10-15G20-25
by Tuesday afternoon. LLWS will increase through the period,
with winds 2kft aloft becoming 25-40kt by Tuesday evening,
strongest across central/northern SEAK as the front approaches.

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): As of Monday afternoon, a low
is making landfall along the southern portions of southeast, with
winds of moderate to fresh breezes are being reported by coastal
buoys. Significant heights were 7 to 9 ft, dominant energy out of
the south, focused near 9 to 12 seconds, masking fresh seas out of
the southeast. Further upstream a hurricane force low developing
near 47N 176E will continue moving toward the Bering. This low
will be responsible for our weather this week, driving a series of
secondary gale to storm force lows, gale force south-
southeasterly winds, and high wave energy along our coast. The
first of these systems will reach the Gulf Tuesday afternoon,
bringing near-gale force conditions to our coast. The second
system, which appears much stronger, will bring strong gales to
waters south of Cape Edgecumbe and seas near 30 ft. There is high
uncertainty with where the strongest winds might be, which is
resulting in large variance in wave height potential. For now, we
highlight south southwest significant wave heights near 30 ft for
the Prince of Wales coast and Dixon Entrance, with the potential
to see closer to 35 ft by Thursday afternoon.

Inside (Inner channels): Winds below 20 knots continue through
the inside with the exception of Lynn Canal, with low clouds and
rain showers moving over the region. Expect winds to slowly
increase out of the southeast Tuesday morning, with near- gale
force conditions for Lynn Canal and moderate to fresh breezes for
major north-south channels. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
as the low makes landfall, we will see gale force conditions in
Clarence Strait and Lynn Canal, with near- gales impacting other
major passages. Wednesday afternoon another system approaches,
with winds diminishing briefly through the inside before quickly
ramping back up to near gale, to gale force, conditions by early
Thursday. Winds diminish Friday into Saturday before outflow
begins to dominate the region, likely bringing gale force
conditions and freezing spray to Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ318.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 7 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ319.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 2 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ323.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 5 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ328.
     Wind Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 7 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-031-033-644-651-662>664-671-672.

&&

UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...AP

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