Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
916 AM AKST Thu Jan 8 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 18z taf issuance.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
   - Strong weather system incoming for late Thursday night into
     Friday with multiple hazards possible.

   - Moderate to Heavy rainfall possible the the panhandle Friday
     timeframe. Flood Watch issued for most of the panhandle.

   - High wind possible for the south. High Wind Watch issued for
     the south.

   - More snow possible for the north. Winter Storm Watch issued
     for the Haines and Skagway areas.

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Snow showers today
tapering off in the evening with minor accumulations. The next
system will be moving northeast into the southeast gulf and
southern panhandle overnight, and moving north through the
central panhandle. Should see precipitation start out as snow, and
transfer over to rain, then progress northward. Anticipate that
rain/snow line will be a little south of the Icy Strait corridor /
Cross Sound East towards Juneau / by Friday Morning. The snow
accumulation around the Icy Strait corridor for Thursday night
are varying amounts but up to 3 to 5 inches give or take are
possible. Northern Lynn Canal region may see more, and a Winter
Storm Watch is out for the area.

As the system continues to move towards through the panhandle, the
moisture plume increases leading to heavier rates and this leads
to the Flood Watch that is out.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ Major storm incoming for
Friday into Friday night that has a minor to moderate atmospheric
river associated with it. The main forecast challenges with it
are three fold. First is how much snow various area are going to
get before the southerly flow warms places enough to change snow
to rain. Currently it is looking like the timing for change over
will be late Thursday night for the south, early Friday for the
central panhandle, and Friday morning for the Icy Strait, Juneau
area. Snowfall amounts will vary depending on when the timing of
the warm up occurs for various areas. Current thinking has a few
inches of snow for the south before change over, increasing
amounts (3 to 6 inches) into the central panhandle, Icy Strait
area, and Juneau. Haines and Skagway areas are the exception as
they could stay snow for most of the event. Current thinking has
them staying snow until Friday evening when stronger southerly
winds start to work into there, and even then the inland areas and
upper elevations along the highways could not see a change over
to rain at all. Winter storm watches have been issued for that
area as a result.

Second, once an area changes over to rain, the concern becomes
more on flooding from the 1 to 4 inches of rain that is expected
to possibly fall through Friday night. Southern panhandle does not
have as much snowpack as the north so the concern there is just
on the amount of rain and the possibly of isolated landslides due
to the rainfall and the gusty winds expected with this front.
Farther north, the concern is more on the rain on the frankly
deep snow pack around Icy Strait and Juneau and how any melt and
runoff does not really have anywhere to go. A lot of storm drains
and ditches are full of snow and ice right now so many areas may
see ponding of water in areas that normally do not see this. A
flood watch has been issued for most of the panhandle for Friday
into Saturday as a result of these expectations. Yakutat has been
left out as we are not expecting quite as much rain there, and
Haines and Skagway were also left out as they will mostly be snow
during the event (though even they could see some ponding of water
if/when the they actually warm above freezing).

Third, this is a windy front and strong southerly winds are
expected to impact the southern panhandle Friday. 850 to 950 mb
winds above the southern panhandle are pushing 70 to 80 kt Friday
mainly at southern Clarence Strait. This translates to near 60 mph
gusts at the surface so a high wind watch has also been issued
for the southern panhandle on Friday.

Farther out into the weekend and next week, SW flow and a possible
series of systems will keep the panhandle mostly warm and wet
through early to mid next week. Not a lot of confidence on exactly
when and where the individual systems will impact the area, but
the general trend is warm (temps mostly remaining above freezing
for many sea level areas and snow levels around 1500 to 3000 ft
panhandle wide), and wet (potential for upwards of a few inches of
rain late weekend into mid next week for low elevations). Highest
rainfall amounts will likely be over the south during this period.

.AVIATION...Snow showers occasionally dropping vis and ceilings
down to IFR or lower at times is the main rule for today.
Otherwise mostly VFR conditions for Thursday. This is expected to
change for the worst as a strong wet front moves in from the south
tonight bringing precipitation and wind to the area. Precip is
expected to spread from S to N tonight with most areas starting as
snow (likely MVFR or IFR conditions). That will steadily change
to rain from S to N tonight into tomorrow with visibility
slightly improving after change over, but will go back to lower
conditions as heavier rainfall moves in. Skagway and Haines will
likely stay snow with lower conditions through Friday before a
southerly wind starts up Friday evening and changes them to rain
as well with the accompanying changing vis and ceiling conditions.
In the southern panhandle winds will also become an issue with
gusty ground level winds accompanied by winds at 2000 ft
increasing to 45 to 50 kt out of the SE at times by friday
afternoon. So low level wind shear and possible turbulence will
become an issue for Friday mainly across the southern half of the
panhandle.

.MARINE...
Outer Coastal Waters: Near gale to gale force west to
southwesterlies continue to move into the area, but are expected
to diminish as the low in the NE gulf coast fills. Strong SW swell
from 18-22 ft look to diminish steadily over the next 48 hours.
Wave heights of 20-25 ft. look to following in kind, dropping down
to 8-10 ft.

Inner channels: South to southwesterly winds remain mostly
stagnant, hovering around a moderate to fresh breeze through
Thursday morning. Winds are expected to decline briefly going
into Thursday afternoon as the next system comes in from the
south. Lynn Canal is expected to switch out of the north
Wednesday night as the incoming warm front moves northward.

.HYDROLOGY...
Off and on showers will continue through mid week as a low in the
NE Gulf sends waves of precipitation across the area. Looking
towards the end of the week, the next organized system will push
an atmospheric river into the panhandle late Thursday night
through Friday. This system will bringing rounds of moderate to
heavy rainfall and rapidly rising freezing levels for communities
across the panhandle.

For the northern panhandle, current forecast rainfall amounts are
around 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts approaching 3
inches at higher terrain. This rainfall in combination with rapidly
rising freezing levels around 2000 to 3000ft by Friday afternoon
into the weekend. This rainfall in combination with rapidly rising
freezing levels around 2000 to 3000ft through Friday afternoon will
lead to localized flooding concerns like ponding on road ways and
poor drainage due to snow blocking drains along and north of the Icy
Strait Corridor, including but not limited to Juneau, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway.

For the central and southern panhandle, current forecast rainfall
amounts are around 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts
approaching 5 inches at higher terrain. This rainfall in combination
with rapidly rising freezing levels around 3000 to 5000ft will lead
to localized flooding concerns like rapid river rises on small
streams, ponding on road ways and poor drainage due to snow blocking
drains along and south of a line from Sitka to Angoon to Petersburg.

For all of the panhandle, any existing snowpack will become more
dense and hard to move by Friday. Additionally, hard pack snow on
driveways, parking lots, and sidewalks will become very icy.
Preparations should begin for an expected rain on snow event going
into the weekend. Stay tuned for further forecast updates on this
system moving through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning
     for AKZ318-319.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
     Friday for AKZ320>322-325.
     Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for
     AKZ320>332.
     High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night
     for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-034-053-643-661.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDRO...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1111 AM AKST Thu Jan 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     Snow             1 NE Gustavus           58.42N 135.72W
01/08/2026  E6.0 Inch        Hoonah-Angoon      AK   Dept of Highways

            DOT in Gustavus reported heavy snow showers
            with 2-3 inches between 6and 8am and up to 6
            inches at 1025am.

&&