Gale Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1140 AM AKST Tue Jan 27 2026

.MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Parade of lows continues across the SEAK panhandle this mid
morning with one departing system near Yakutat with another
pushing northward out of the N Pacific. Minor adjustments to
ongoing forecast are toning down the winds along the Icy Strait
corridor communities, dropping below Wind Advisory thresholds for
Juneau and Skagway so those have been cancelled. Winds along the
coast remain elevated with strongest gusts this morning reported
near Yakutat and Ketchikan up to 45mph, Wind Advisory for Yakutat
remains in effect through afternoon, longer for the S Panhandle
communities through Wednesday. Wind gusts will increase for the S
Panhandle communities over the coming hours and continue into
Tuesday night, with another potentially stronger round of winds
expected Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Wednesday/

Flying conditions will be impacted through Wednesday as multiple
lows track along the E Gulf of Alaska along the coast of SEAK with
strong LLWS expected.

As of 11am, predominate VFR to MVFR flight conditions ongoing
across much of the panhandle with CIGS AoB 4500ft, down to IFR
CIGS/visbys flight conditions at Yakutat from low tracking inland.
Through the rest of the afternoon, CIGS should remain around 2500
to 5000ft with visbys 2SM to 5SM, dropping into the overnight
periods and within the heavier showers.

Main aviation concern through the period will long duration LLWS
across the panhandle as these fronts track inland, with upwards
of 50 to 60kts expected across the central and southern panhandle
TAF sites after 03z this afternoon, Sitka to Petersburg Southward.
LLWS decreases to around 30kts moving northward towards the Icy
Strait Corridor TAF sites of Gustavus, Juneau, and including
Yakutat by 09z tonight. Brief break possible tonight in between
departing and arriving systems, but expecting a stronger round of
SE-ly LLWS to develop by early WEdnesday morning around 40 to
50kts, approaching near 60kt near Ketchikan, Annette Island, and
Prince of Wales Island by 18z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 554 AM AKST Tue Jan 27 2026 ...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Active weather will continue through the work week, with strong
 winds up to 50 mph for the southern panhandle and widespread
 moderate rainfall expected as multiple systems push into the
 area. Wind Advisories are in effect for the S Panhandle.

- Mariners along the coastal waters and Clarence Strait should
  remain aware of elevated seas starting Tuesday morning with
  Storm Force Gusts through Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM...The active weather pattern continues, although rain
and wind have largely supplanted the previous snowfall concerns.
SE Alaska remains on the eastern flank of a broad longwave trough,
which is sending shortwave after shortwave into the panhandle. The
most recent shortwave, which moved through overnight, is currently
bringing warming temperatures across the northern panhandle,
resulting in a changeover to rain among the last bastion of colder
air in SE AK. Another frontal band has already begun to impact
the south, and will work its way through the region through the
evening and overnight hours. A stronger pair of fronts will sweep
through the area on Wednesday, and additional systems look set to
continue moving in through the weekend, and even into next week,
and rain showers look set to continue in between each system.

Aside from periods of rain, this will also lead to periods of
windy conditions across SE AK, with each new shortwave sending a
surge of stronger winds up through the panhandle, with some
locations (especially in the south) expected to see gusts of up to
40 mph.

LONG TERM...The long term period starts out with another system moving
north bringing gale force winds to the outer coast as well as the
southern portion of Clarence Strait. With these stronger winds, the
potential for strong winds is expected to continue for the southern
communities as well as the outer coastal locations. These places
could see wind gusts up to 55mph with the current thinking. This
potential will need to be watched though as the system for Wednesday
moves through the area Wednesday. By Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, winds are expected to diminish for the panhandle as we see
a break from any system moving past the panhandle. This break will
primarily be for the winds which are expected to trend down.

Precipitation across the panhandle is expected to persist with
moderate to heavy possible at times. Current thinking is that most
of the precipitation should not be too heavy for the region but some
smaller rivers and creeks could see minor rises due to rain and some
snow melt with the switch back to warmer temperatures. Confidence
throughout the week does decrease as ensembles start to diverge more
through the end of the week and into the weekend on specific details.
CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased
likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal
precipitation across SE AK.

MARINE...

Outside waters: Weather fronts continue to sweep in. Periods of
gale force winds remain in the forecast through Wednesday,
alongside elevated waveheights reaching ~15-25 ft as system after
system moves through the Gulf. The highest seas are expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday and winds will reach high end gale
force (sustained 40-45 kt) at times.

Inside Waters: Elevated winds remain fresh to strong breeze
(22-27 kt) through Wednesday. An additional surge of winds Tuesday
night will see some of the inner channels approach gale force.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ317.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ323.
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034.

&&

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

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