Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The next round of Arctic air is already entering Alaska from the
northeast and will continue to engulf the rest of the state over
the next 24 hours. Widespread double digit below zero temperatures
as low as -20F to -50F are expected to fill in regionwide through
Tuesday, with even colder wind chills. Northerly and northeasterly
gap winds substantially increase tonight and persist into
Wednesday across the Brooks Range, along the West Coast, and into
the Bering Strait where winter weather and high wind headlines
are already in place. As these winds usher in the incoming arctic
airmass, wind chill values fall into the -50 to -75 range across
much of the North Slope, prompting the issuance of widespread Cold
Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Watches. More sheltered
locations within the Interior may not see such strong winds or as
cold wind chills, however still expect air temperatures to plummet
into the -20 to -45 range through Wednesday.

Snow chances through Monday will remain confined to the Southeast
Interior and North Slope/Brooks Range, ahead of a more organized
push of moisture Tuesday into Wednesday expanding those chances
areawide out of the southeast. Winter weather advisories and
warnings have been issued for the Eastern Alaska range passes and
the Upper Tanana Valley, with highest snowfall amounts within the
passes on Tuesday. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for the
Northeast Arctic coast for Monday where several inches of new
snow and wind gusts to 60 mph will make for dangerous travel and
whiteout conditions. Scattered snow showers overspread the
interior from the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday as flow
switches around to the southeast. Expect a warming trend closer to
near normal for this time of year after Wednesday with highs
reaching the single digits above zero. Clearing skies overnight
should still lead to colder overnight lows as radiational cooling
allows lows to fall below guidance in the zero to -20 range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter weather headlines posted for the eastern Alaska range
  passes and Upper Tanana Valley Monday and Tuesday as snow
  increases from the southeast. Highest accumulations within
  Alaska range passes.

- Temperatures trend colder through Wednesday with coldest valley
  locations reaching down to -30F to -45F

- Winds ramp up across higher elevations, peaking on Tuesday and
  Wednesday as gusty winds expand to the Middle Tanana Valley
  around Delta and through Alaska Range Passes.

- Warmer temperatures will also build in midweek, returning to
  more seasonal levels to finish out the week as drier conditions
  prevail Thursday onward.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A prolonged high wind event beginning across Western Alaska,
  with wind gusts of 30-60 mph becoming widespread along the West
  Coast and in the Bering where High Wind Warnings are in effect.

- Temperatures plummeting back below zero through Thursday with
  lows -10F to -30F and even colder wind chills.

- More widespread light snow chances will build in regionwide
  southeast to northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, shifting to
  the West Coast for Thursday, as warner temperatures also work
  back in mid to late week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Wind gusts up to 60 mph and light snow are expected tonight
  into Monday for the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast where a Blizzard
  Warning is now in effect.

- Widespread double digit below zero temperatures expected to
  fill in regionwide through midweek. Coldest locations are
  expected to drop to around -30F to -50F.

- Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings have been
  expanded to include all of the Brooks Range and North Slope
  through Wednesday for wind chills as cold as -55 to -75F.

- Winds remain elevated through midweek with gusts up to around
  30-50 mph, peaking for most Tuesday into Wednesday. A High Wind
  Watch has been issued for the NW Arctic Coast where gusts up to
  70 mph remain possible Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A significant pattern change is underway for all of Northern
Alaska as a polar airmass moves into from the Northeast bringing a
several day stretch of significantly colder temperatures, strong
winds, and dangerous wind chills. A 1050mb+ surface high sets up
over the high arctic and Siberia, while a polar surface low nears
the northeast arctic coast and another low pressure sets up in the
north Pacific. This sets the stage for a strong northeasterly
outflow event across most of Northern Alaska tonight and
persisting into the middle of next week. Strong cold air advection
causes 850mb temperatures to plummet quickly into the minus 20C
to 35C range over the North Slope, with that same airmass
filtering south of the Brooks range into early next week. Sub-zero
highs have already expanded across the Interior today and will
push further south and west by tomorrow. An arctic airmass this
deep supports surface temperatures as low as -50F or lower for the
North Slope and in the -25F to -45F range over the interior, with
Tuesday being the coldest day of the week.

A tightening pressure gradient and stronger winds aloft will lead
to increasing surface winds over the coming days... particularly
along the Arctic/West Coasts and across higher elevations. The
upper polar low tracks southwest towards the Bering Sea by
midweek, maintaining strong winds through Tuesday as strongest
winds ultimately shift north Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds
in stronger corridors along the coasts and higher elevations will
see wind gusts around 30- 50 mph, locally stronger up to 60-70 mph
especially for the NW Arctic Coast southwest to St. Lawrence
Island. A mix of warnings and watches have been issued to capture
where strongest winds are expected through midweek. Confidence has
increased in widespread dangerous wind chills across the Brooks
Range and North slope, therefore Cold Weather Advisories and
Extreme Cold Watches have been expected across that region to
account for wind chills in the -60F to -75F range through
Wednesday. Additionally, will be monitoring the blowing snow
potential for the arctic coast as additional winter weather
products may be needed for Tuesday for low visibility and near
whiteout conditions. On Tuesday, there is also increasing
potential for strong gap winds to fill in through the Alaska Range
Passes and across the Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction
with wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph possible.

Snow chances through Monday remain confined to the Eastern North
Slope/Brooks Range and Southeast Interior, ahead of a regionwide
expansion Tuesday into Wednesday. As the upper polar low descends
over the state from the high arctic, flow switches around to the
south in the Upper Tanana Valley and Eastern Alaska range allowing
for moisture advection from the pacific northward into the region.
A mid level frontal boundary on the southside of the polar low
remains nearly stationary over the Upper Tanana Valley and is the
focus for scattered snow showers in that region. As moisture
advection increases the next 24 to 48 hours, the region will also
be in an area of enhanced lift in the entrance region of a jet
streak aloft. This in addition to waves of energy advecting in
from the south will result in widespread snowfall accumulations
within the Eastern Alaska range and Upper Tanana valley. Winter
Weather products have been expanded for these areas to include
Northway and Tok and through Isabel Pass. Highest snowfall amounts
upwards of foot expected within the mountains and passes, with
lower amounts 2-7 inches within the upper Tanana Valley.

The track of an upper level low over Northern Alaska towards the
Bering Sea will advect moisture from the Gulf of Alaska during
this timeframe, tapping into a larger plume of moisture from a
series of stronger surface lows in the Pacific.. As a result,
snow shower chances expand regionwide southeast to northwest
Tuesday into Wednesday. Snowfall accumulations should be confined
to the southeast portion of the state where winter weather
headlines are in place with lighter snow showers and only minor
accumulations for the interior midweek. Downsloping off the Alaska
range will keep conditions much drier in portions of the eastern
interior and around Fairbanks.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

Active weather continues into the extended across all of Northern
Alaska as an upper polar low traverses the state and moves off
into the Bering Wednesday through the end of next week. As the
polar low heads west, the next pattern change begins as southeasterly
flow sets up across Eastern Alaska bringing increased moisture and
warmer temperatures back northward. The arctic airmass quickly
retreats into Siberia with a significant increase in 850 mb and
low level temperatures, aided by downsloping off the Alaska range.
During this time, numerous systems work there way into the Gulf
of Alaska, sending waves of energy northwestward into the
interior. Expect an increase in snow shower activity each day
beginning Wednesday through end of the week. Downsloping off the
Alaska range will likely keep areas just north of there, including
Fairbanks, fairly dry with the most widespread snow showers in
higher elevations and throughout the Central Interior. Max
temperatures rise above zero for many locations by the end of the
week with larger diurnal ranges and sub zero lows as clearer skies
at night allow for good radiational cooling. Fairly dry conditions
set up for the end of the week and into the weekend as the main
storm track remains over the Pacific and Southern Alaska
while subtle downsloping off the Alaska range persists.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ801.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809-811.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ850.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ812.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-805-810-811-850-852-853-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&