Winter Storm Warning 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
652 AM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues across Northern Alaska. A front
pushing into the area today will yield strong east to northeast
winds across the West Coast, with an extensive band of
precipitation bringing the potential for several inches of snow to
the Western and Central Interior. In areas of the West Coast where
strong winds can combine with fallen or falling snow, blowing snow
conditions reducing visibility will be possible. Heavy snow is
ongoing for the eastern Alaska Range south of Trims camp and will
continue through this afternoon before diminishing. As the next
round of precipitation with the front enters the Central/Eastern
Interior, this heavy precipitation will pick up again, with slick
conditions possible at times. There is some uncertainty on
potential snow totals in the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley, but with
showery activity in the area, up to a few inches could occur.
Temperatures will be cooler in Western Alaska today but will
recover tomorrow, with a more significant drop on Tuesday next
week. The Central and Eastern Interior will also see temperatures
fall to a lesser extent during the latter time frame. Another
system will affect the area by the middle of next week, with more
snow and mixed precipitation possible, especially in Western
Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Moderate snow is expected in the Eastern AK Range south of Trims
  Camp through this afternoon with another 3 to 6 inches of snow
  expected.

- More impactful weather arrives on Sunday as a front pushes snow,
  heavy at times to much of the Interior. The snow has a 40%
  chance to mix with rain Sunday evening into early Monday morning
  in the Middle Tanana Valley as temperatures rise near and above
  freezing.
    * Any rain changes back to snow on Monday resulting in a
      slushy mess of accumulations in the valleys. The higher
      terrain above 1000ft will likely remain all snow throughout
      the event.
    * Snowfall totals will range between 2 and 4 inches in the
      valleys with between 3 and 7 inches in the terrain around
      Fairbanks.
    * One important note is, if there is rain, it can lead to
      flooding or pooling/ponding of water since the ground is
      still frozen, leaving nowhere for the water to drain.

- Any wet/slushy spots will likely refreeze Monday morning and
  especially Tuesday morning as temperatures drop below freezing.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A front will bring very strong wind to most of the West Coast,
  with the strongest wind being in the Bering Strait, where
  northeast winds could gust up to 65 mph.

- This same front also provides snow beginning this morning in the
  Yukon Delta and gradually traversing north and east through
  tonight and Sunday.
    * Rain will likely mix with the snow in the Lower Yukon and
      Upper Kuskokwim Valleys from Mountain Village to McGrath
      with the best chances being Sunday afternoon through Monday
      morning.
    * Prior to the rain, snow amounts will be around 4 to 7
      inches. North of the mixing line, snow amounts will range
      between 5 to 10 inches from Ruby to Kaltag (highest in
      Kaltag) and 3 to 6 inches in the Kobuk Valley.

- Any rain across the area will change back to light snow and snow
  showers Monday afternoon which will linger into Tuesday.

- Winds will also gradually weaken on Monday and Tuesday. Another
  system looks to move into the area on Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Generally quiet weather on the North Slope with unseasonably
  cold temperatures continuing into next week.

- Light snow continues in the Central Brooks Range through this
  evening with only light accumulations around 1 to 2 inches
  expected.

- Another area of snow arrives on Sunday, particularly
  late in the day and gradually traverses north to the coast
  Sunday night and Monday.
    * This second round of snow will bring another 1 to 3 inches
      in the North-Central Brooks Range with around 1 inch on the
      North Slope.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Active, unsettled weather continues through next week across
Northern Alaska. Elongated troughing aloft from over the Arctic
(with minimum 500 mb heights of around 512 dm) extends across the
North Slope and the Seward Peninsula. At the 850 mb level,
temperatures are around −22C at 850 mb over the North Slope and
−15C over the Seward Peninsula. Cold air associated with this area
of troughing along with northerly winds will permit colder
surface high temperatures today in Western Alaska; highs on the
Seward Peninsula/coastal areas are expected to be in the single
digits and teens above zero, with highs in the Western Interior in
the mid to upper 20s from around Galena north. Scattered showers
continue across an area extending from Norton Sound to the Central
Brooks Range and are receiving dynamic support from a shortwave
trough moving northeastward across the Interior. More numerous
showers are occurring across the Alaska Range and will persist
through the next few days. Snow will be heaviest on the southern
side of the Eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp; near the
Richardson Highway, some surface melting during the daytime
periods followed by later refreezing could result in slick
road conditions.

The primary weather maker for the next few days will be an
extratropical cyclone over the southern Bering Sea. The minimum
central pressure of the low-pressure center of this system is
estimated to be around 960 mb. While the surface low will be
fairly strong (and vertically-stacked with its corresponding upper
low), it will not directly affect land at this intensity; the
primary impacts will instead occur along the leading warm front
well east of the low, where brisk easterly to northeasterly winds
will blow across the northern Bering Sea and adjacent coastal
areas. In the Bering Strait and through the Chukchi Sea, they will
have a more northerly orientation. The front will move ashore
over the YK Delta by this afternoon/evening and with it, a broad
line of precipitation will begin to affect the area while moving
in a consistent southwest-to-northeast direction. Ridging over
the eastern Aleutians ahead of this system will push eastward,
with meridional flow setting up over southcentral Alaska. By this
afternoon and evening, snow showers in the southern Alaska Range
should dwindle. Tonight into tomorrow, ahead of the upcoming
front, additional showers will develop in the Central/Eastern
Interior and may be convectively driven, with many forming off the
higher terrain. These showers will likely continue through
Saturday evening, and their precipitation type could be diurnally-
driven in the valleys, with rain more likely during the
afternoon/evening hours. Heavy snow on the south side of the
Alaska Range will likewise resume tonight, with upslope flow
supporting high snowfall rates at times. There could still be some
messiness, with potential icy/slick conditions again possible.

The front itself will largely affect the Western and Central
Interior from Sunday through Tuesday. In these areas, liquid-
equivalent precipitation could range significantly, with lower
totals around 0.2 inches on the margins to higher totals of ~0.7
inches near the center of the main band. In spite of some briefly
warmer temperatures with the initial warm front, temperatures even
in valleys locations in the Western Interior will remain fairly
cool, with most precipitation falling as snow. The best chances
for any daytime rain mixing in with snow will be in the Lower
Upper Kuskokwim and Lower Yukon Valleys. Snow ratios could be
high; models soundings indicate potential for saturated dendritic
growth zones which could support ratios of 15:1 or higher at
times. This will allow for many areas to potentially receive 6
inches or more of snow through Tuesday morning, especially between
the Lower Yukon Valley and Bettles. The Dalton Highway Summits,
White Mountains, and Yukon Uplands could also potentially see
several inches of snow accumulation. There is uncertainty on snow
totals for the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys, but ensemble
guidance supports the potential for at least a few tenths of an
inch of liquid equivalent precipitation with numerous showers in
the area, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. If this
were to verify, multiple inches of snow would be possible in the
area (although this could be affected by melting during afternoon
periods).

While snow totals across much of the West Coast/St. Lawrence
Island will likely be lower than inland, blowing snow will be
possible where fresh or especially falling snow can combine with
strong winds. Blizzard conditions are possible over both the YK
Delta and St. Lawrence Island, but potential will depend on how
much snowfall either area can get (and how winds coincide with
falling snow). On Sunday, while there will generally be zonal
flow aloft over the Alaska Range, which is not usually supportive
of gap winds, there will be a strong surface pressure gradient of
about 6 to 8 mb across the mountains. This will permit
breezy/gusty winds through the passes. Easterly winds will also
pick up on the eastern Arctic Coast from Sunday into Monday night
as high pressure develops over the Beaufort Sea.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Tuesday in Wednesday, cold air with the Arctic trough will again
dip into Western Alaska, dropping highs below freezing. It will
then wrap eastward behind the last remaining snow showers in the
Interior from the previous system and cause high temperatures on
Tuesday to fall into the mid or low 30s even in the warmer valley
areas. This will be short-lived, as another system entering the
eastern Bering Sea pushes a warm front across the area which will
push the cold air back out. Along the front, as with the previous
system, winds will generally be easterly and strongest over the
water. It will also bring another round of precipitation, with
better chances for rain or rain/snow mix in the Western Interior
than with the first system given the warmer airmass. The
precipitation band moves in a more south-to-north direction, which
will also limit the precipitation in the Central/Eastern Interior
to a greater extent while allowing for much more to fall over the
western North Slope. By the late week period, highs in parts of
the Interior could rise into the 50s, with highs on the West Coast
rising back above freezing and highs on the North Slope rising
into the teens above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ850.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ829.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-856-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Storm Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Storm Warning for PKZ854.
&&

DS