Winter Storm Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
713 AM AKDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue across Northern Alaska.
Substantial snow is ongoing and will continue through tomorrow for
the southern Alaska Range, especially near the Richardson Highway
south of Trims Camp, for which a Winter Weather Advisory is
currently in effect. Light, showery weather extending from the
Lower Yukon Valley into the Central and Eastern Interior
continues. These showers will be reinforced tomorrow by an
incoming frontal system which will bring robust moisture, with
signicant snow possible across parts of the West Coast and
extending well inland. This system will also bring brisk easterly
to northeasterly winds to the Bering Sea and adjacent coastal
areas, which could result in blowing snow conditions in places
where they can manage to combine with falling or recently fallen
snow. Temperatures will drop considerably in Western Alaska with a
cold airmass and northerly winds tomorrow before recovering
somewhat, with a more significant drop on Tuesday next week. The
Central and Eastern Interior will also see temperatures fall to a
lesser extent in the latter case.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rain and snow showers persist in the Interior with steadier
  snow moving into the southern AK Range through Saturday.
    * Snowfall totals will generally be less than 1 inch in the
      Interior and around 6 to 12 inches south of Trims Camp with
      up to 18 inches away from the road.

- High temperatures remain in the 30s and low 40s with low temps
  in the teens and 20s. Warmest temps are expected to reside in
  the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley.

- Another round of snow, potentially heavy again in the southern
  AK Range Sunday through Tuesday with significant accumulations
  possible. Lighter snow and rain possible in the Interior with
  minor accumulations possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Wind speeds along the Bering Strait with sustained winds around
  15 to 25 mph continue this morning, but northeast winds
  increase tomorrow afternoon and continue to to increase through
  Saturday.
    * Northeast wind gusts in St. Lawrence Island by Saturday
      evening will be as high as 55 mph. Elsewhere along the
      coast, expect northeast wind gusts around 25 to 45 mph with
      the weakest being in Norton Sound.

- Steady snow moves into SW AK Saturday night and spreads
  north/east through Sunday. Blowing snow and low visibility below
  1 mile at times is possible in the YK Delta on Sunday.
    * Snow accumulations from Sunday to Monday may be as high as
      6 inches in portions of the Western Interior, especially in
      higher terrain.

- Similar temperatures are expected today compared to yesterday.
  A cooling trend arrives on Friday with highs in the teens and
  20s from Shungnak to St. Lawrence Island. Highs in the low 30s
  from Nome to Hooper Bay and mid to upper 30s in the Interior.
    * Expect a continued cooling trend into Saturday with 20s to
      near 30 hanging on in the YK Delta, teens and low 20s north
      of there along the coast and upper 20s to mid 30s in the
      Interior.

- Wind chills as low as −20F to −30F are possible in the Bering
  Strait Region Saturday and Sunday as temperatures drop and winds
  increase.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Areas of stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast will persist
  through Saturday morning but there will be breaks Saturday
  afternoon.

- Areas of snow move over the Central Brooks Range Friday night
  and continues through Saturday and into Sunday.
    * Snow totals around 3 to 7 inches are possible with the
      heaviest being around Coldfoot/Wiseman and the lightest
      being in Anaktuvuk/Atigun Pass.

- Light snow then moves to the North Slope with around 1 to 2
  inches of snow from Umiat north and east.

- Temperatures remain chilly for the Brooks Range with highs
  around 0 along the Beaufort Sea Coast, single digits in
  Atigun/Anaktuvuk Pass, 10 to 20F near Point Hope and 20s to near
  30 in the southern Brooks Range.
    * Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens
      below zero from the Brooks Range northward with teens above
      zero in around Wiseman/Coldfoot.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A long stretch of active weather continues across Northern
Alaska. A very cold ~508 dm Arctic trough is just beginning to
shift southward into the North Slope, with 850 mb temperatures of
around −22 C. A broad ridge extends across the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, with a ~524 dm upper-level (500 mb) low over the YK Delta.
The low is nearly vertically stacked with a very weak surface
low; ahead of this surface low, any remaining snow in the area
from yesterday has since moved north and east of the YK Delta,
with some residual lights showers in parts of the southwestern
Interior and Norton Sound areas. There are also a few light snow
showers in the Eastern Interior, mostly in the higher terrain,
although any accumulations will be minimal. With southerly flow at
500 mb and a surface gradient across the eastern Alaska Range of
around 2-4 mb, there are some moderate gap winds (gusting as high
as 30 to 40 mph) on the north side of Isabel Pass. These should
weaken by later this morning as as the gradient decreases. Later
today, a remnant shortwave from the upper low over the YK Delta
will combine with another shortwave crossing the Alaska Range to
yield snow showers across the northwestern Interior into the
Brooks Range which will continue through Saturday night.
Additional showers will form in the Central/Eastern Interior and
may be convectively driven, with many forming off the higher
terrain. These showers will likely continue through Saturday
evening, and their precipitation type could be diurnally-driven in
the valleys, with rain more likely during the afternoon/evening
hours. On the south side of the Alaska Range, upsloping could lead
to heavy snowfall, especially in the Eastern Alaska Range / near
the Richardson Highway.

An extratropical cyclone (low) has just crossed the Aleutians
into the southern Bering Sea and has a central pressure of around
~980 mb. As it moves northeastward today, it is expected to
eventually attain a minimum central pressure of around ~965 mb by
tonight into tomorrow. While the low-pressure center itself is
relatively strong, the strongest winds are generally expected to
be along the leading warm front and occluded front on the north
side of the system. Here, east to northeast gale-force winds will
begin to enter the northern Bering Sea by tomorrow morning. The
highest winds will mostly remain offshore except over St. Lawrence
Island, the western YK Delta, and the Bering Strait and Lisburne
Peninsula (with winds being more northerly in these latter two
cases). In addition to these strong winds, an extensive band of
snow will begin to move inland; it will initially affect the YK
Delta, then spread across the Norton Sound/Seward Peninsula area
before overspreading the Western and Central Interior and
southern North Slope. Compared to yesterday, the general model
consensus has shifted from having most precipitation along a band
either farther west or farther east to a broader area encompassing
both solutions to an extent. In these areas, liquid-equivalent
precipitation could range significantly, with lower totals around
0.2 inches on the margins to higher totals of ~0.7 inches near the
center of the main band. In spite of some briefly warmer
temperatures with the initial warm front, temperatures even in
valleys locations in the Western Interior will remain fairly cool,
with most precipitation falling as snow. Snow ratios could be
high; models soundings indicate potential for saturated dendritic
growth zones which could support ratios of 15:1 or higher at
times. This will allow for many areas to potentially receive 6
inches or more of snow through Tuesday morning, especially between
the Lower Yukon Valley and Bettles. The Dalton Highway Summits,
White Mountains, and Yukon Uplands could also potentially see
several inches of snow accumulation. There is high uncertainty on
snow totals for the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys given
potential for downsloping, but the trend in model guidance has
been more aggressively in favor of bringing numerous snow showers
through the area with west to southwest flow, especially Sunday
night into Monday morning, which if it panned out could permit
multiple inches of snow to fall in the area.

While snow totals across much of the West Coast/St. Lawrence
Island will likely be lower than inland, blowing snow will be
possible where fresh or especially falling snow can combine with
strong winds. Sunday, the ridging over the Gulf/North Pacific
flattens out, allowing for generally zonal flow across the area at
the 500 mb level. While this is normally not conducive to
southerly gap flow through the mountains, the 700 and especially
850 mb upper low over Western Alaska will have a more
southwesterly gradient, with a 6 to 8 mb surface pressure gradient
across the mountains. This will permit breezy/gusty winds through
the passes. Easterly winds will also pick up on the eastern
Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
At the beginning of the extended time frame of Monday, cold
troughing on the western North Slope will shift southward, with
northerly flow on the west side of the low helping to pull very
cold air across Western Alaska. This will lead to highs broadly
falling below freezing. Even the Central and Eastern Interior will
see highs dip by at least a few degrees into the mid or lower 30s.
There is the potential for a second low in the Bering Sea around
the middle of next week which could help push this cold air back
out with another warm front and yet another push of precipitation
across the Western and Central Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-817-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

DS