Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

612 
WWAK43 PAFG 050433
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
733 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

AKZ850-060100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0013.260306T1200Z-260308T0000Z/
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of the Richardson Highway from MP 202 to MP
224 and Trims Camp
733 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM 
AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 9 and 
  15 inches. Southerly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. 
  Areas of blowing and falling snow may reduce visibility to 1/2 
  mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Friday to 3 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Visit 511.alaska.gov or call 5 
1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ837-839-060100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260306T1800Z-260307T0600Z/
Delta Junction-Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Delta Junction, the Richardson Highway
from MP 295 to MP 317, Fort Greely, Birch Lake, and Deltana
733 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM AKST 
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one 
  inch. Easterly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Delta Junction and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may be impacted. Areas of blowing snow may reduce 
  visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times. Gusty winds may blow 
  around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ832-834-835-060100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260306T1800Z-260308T0000Z/
Dalton Highway Summits-White Mountains and High Terrain South of
the Yukon River-Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of the Taylor Highway north of MP 9, the
Dalton Highway from MP 0 to MP 38, Chicken, Prospect Creek,
Twelvemile Summit, the Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, the
Yukon River Bridge, the Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124,
Eagle, the Dalton Highway from MP 39 to MP 164, Finger Mountain,
Circle Hot Springs, Livengood, Eagle Summit, and Gobblers Knob
733 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 
PM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Dalton Highway Summits, Fortymile Country, and White 
  Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 3 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

908 
WWAK43 PAFG 052344
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

AKZ850-070100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WS.W.0013.260306T1200Z-260308T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Trims Camp and the Richardson Highway
from MP 202 to MP 224
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 
  10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. Areas of blowing and 
  falling snow may reduce visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Visit 511.alaska.gov or call 5 
1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ847-848-070100-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260306T1800Z-260308T0600Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Including the cities of Carlo Creek, the Parks Highway from MP
237 to MP 288, Denali National Park, Cantwell, the Parks Highway
from MP 202 MP 237, Kantishna, Healy, and Anderson
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough and Southern Denali Borough.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ849-070100-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260306T1800Z-260308T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Donnelly Dome, Black Rapids, and the
Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ838-840>846-070100-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260307T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Upper Chena River Valley-Eielson AFB and Salcha-Goldstream Valley
and Nenana Hills-Chatanika River Valley-Two Rivers-Fairbanks
Metro Area-Nenana-Central Interior-
Including the cities of Two Rivers, Chena Hot Springs Road from
MP 12 to MP 34, Ester Dome, Ester, Nenana, the Parks Highway from
MP 290 to 325, Rampart, the Steese Highway from MP 12 to MP 85,
Eielson AFB, Murphy Dome, Fort Wainwright, Minto, North Pole,
Haystack, the Elliott Highway from MP 1 to MP 32, the Parks
Highway from MP 325 to MP 342, Harding Lake, Tanana, Moose Creek,
Lake Minchumina, the Richardson Highway from MP 317 to MP 346,
Salcha, Manley Hot Springs, Chena Hot Springs, Chena Hot Springs
Road east of MP 34, Fairbanks, and Fox
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Central Interior, Chatanika River Valley, Eielson AFB and 
  Salcha, Fairbanks Metro Area, Goldstream Valley and Nenana Hills, 
  Nenana, Two Rivers, and Upper Chena River Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ832-834-835-070100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260306T1800Z-260308T0600Z/
Dalton Highway Summits-White Mountains and High Terrain South of
the Yukon River-Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of the Dalton Highway from MP 39 to MP 164,
Eagle Summit, Prospect Creek, Finger Mountain, the Steese Highway
from MP 85 to MP 124, Eagle, Chicken, the Dalton Highway from MP
0 to MP 38, the Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, Twelvemile
Summit, the Yukon River Bridge, Livengood, Gobblers Knob, Circle
Hot Springs, and the Taylor Highway north of MP 9
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM 
AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 3 and 6 inches.

* WHERE...Dalton Highway Summits, Fortymile Country, and White 
  Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ837-839-070100-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260306T1800Z-260308T0600Z/
Delta Junction-Tanana Flats-
Including the cities of Birch Lake, Delta Junction, the
Richardson Highway from MP 295 to MP 317, Fort Greely, and
Deltana
244 PM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM 
AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  between 2 and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Delta Junction and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow may 
  reduce visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

368 
WWAK43 PAFG 062021
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1121 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

AKZ850-080100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of the Richardson Highway from MP 202 to MP
224 and Trims Camp
1121 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Visit 511.alaska.gov or call 5 
1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ832-834-835-080100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Dalton Highway Summits-White Mountains and High Terrain South of
the Yukon River-Fortymile Country-
Including the cities of the Yukon River Bridge, Eagle Summit, the
Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP 134, the Dalton Highway from MP
0 to MP 38, Gobblers Knob, the Taylor Highway north of MP 9,
Finger Mountain, the Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124, Eagle,
Chicken, Livengood, Prospect Creek, the Dalton Highway from MP
39 to MP 164, Circle Hot Springs, and Twelvemile Summit
1121 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Total snow accumulations between 2 
  and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Dalton Highway Summits, Fortymile Country, and White 
  Mountains and High Terrain South of the Yukon River.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ837-839-849-080100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Delta Junction-Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims
Camp-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Delta Junction, the
Richardson Highway from MP 295 to MP 317, Donnelly Dome, Deltana,
Fort Greely, the Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259, and
Birch Lake
1121 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Total snow accumulations between 2 
  and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph in Delta Junction.

* WHERE...Delta Junction, Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp, 
  and Tanana Flats.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ847-848-080100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Northern Denali Borough-Southern Denali Borough-
Including the cities of Denali National Park, the Parks Highway
from MP 202 MP 237, Kantishna, Carlo Creek, Anderson, Healy,
Cantwell, and the Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288
1121 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches.

* WHERE...Northern Denali Borough and Southern Denali Borough.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

AKZ838-840>846-080100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.260307T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Upper Chena River Valley-Eielson AFB and Salcha-Goldstream Valley
and Nenana Hills-Chatanika River Valley-Two Rivers-Fairbanks
Metro Area-Nenana-Central Interior-
Including the cities of Lake Minchumina, Nenana, Ester Dome,
Minto, the Richardson Highway from MP 317 to MP 346, Eielson AFB,
Chena Hot Springs Road east of MP 34, Salcha, the Steese Highway
from MP 12 to MP 85, Chena Hot Springs Road from MP 12 to MP 34,
Chena Hot Springs, Rampart, Harding Lake, Murphy Dome, Fort
Wainwright, Haystack, North Pole, the Elliott Highway from MP
1 to MP 32, Tanana, the Parks Highway from MP 325 to MP 342,
Manley Hot Springs, Two Rivers, Fairbanks, the Parks Highway from
MP 290 to 325, Moose Creek, Fox, and Ester
1121 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches.

* WHERE...Central Interior, Chatanika River Valley, Eielson AFB and 
  Salcha, Fairbanks Metro Area, Goldstream Valley and Nenana Hills, 
  Nenana, Two Rivers, and Upper Chena River Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Visit 511.alaska.gov or 
call 5 1 1 for the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

254 
WWAK43 PAFG 072050
WSWAFG

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 7 2026

AKZ850-072200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range South of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Trims Camp and the Richardson Highway
from MP 202 to MP 224
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 7 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Additional snowfall up to 1 inch possible. 

$$

AKZ832-834-835-837>849-072200-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-260308T0600Z/
Dalton Highway Summits-White Mountains and High Terrain South of
the Yukon River-Fortymile Country-Delta Junction-Upper Chena
River Valley-Tanana Flats-Eielson AFB and Salcha-Goldstream
Valley and Nenana Hills-Chatanika River Valley-Two Rivers-
Fairbanks Metro Area-Nenana-Central Interior-Northern Denali
Borough-Southern Denali Borough-Eastern Alaska Range North of
Trims Camp-
Including the cities of the Parks Highway from MP 202 MP 237, the
Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259, Finger Mountain, the
Steese Highway from MP 85 to MP 124, the Richardson Highway from
MP 317 to MP 346, Cantwell, Carlo Creek, the Dalton Highway from
MP 39 to MP 164, Prospect Creek, Haystack, Gobblers Knob,
Twelvemile Summit, Two Rivers, Black Rapids, the Elliott Highway
from MP 1 to MP 32, Murphy Dome, Donnelly Dome, Eagle, Fort
Greely, the Dalton Highway from MP 0 to MP 38, Lake Minchumina,
Chena Hot Springs, Minto, Eagle Summit, the Taylor Highway north
of MP 9, Nenana, Moose Creek, Denali National Park, the Parks
Highway from MP 290 to 325, Chicken, Ester Dome, Chena Hot
Springs Road from MP 12 to MP 34, Tanana, the Parks Highway from
MP 237 to MP 288, Rampart, the Elliott Highway from MP 32 to MP
134, the Steese Highway from MP 12 to MP 85, Manley Hot Springs,
Livengood, Harding Lake, Healy, Ester, Delta Junction, Eielson
AFB, the Richardson Highway from MP 295 to MP 317, Kantishna,
Deltana, North Pole, Fox, Fort Wainwright, Fairbanks, the Yukon
River Bridge, Circle Hot Springs, Anderson, Birch Lake, Chena Hot
Springs Road east of MP 34, Salcha, and the Parks Highway from MP
325 to MP 342
1150 AM AKST Sat Mar 7 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Additional accumulation up to 1.5 inches possible.

$$

BB

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Well below normal temperatures for early March continue across all
of Northern Alaska this week, with a brief reprieve coming this
weekend. Despite daily lows in the -30s and -40s, the increasing
sun angle is allowing for temperatures to quickly rise each
afternoon to the single digits above and below zero. Expect this
same diurnal pattern to continue at least until Thursday before
the next weather system approaches from the southwest bringing
light snow chances to the Interior and Alaska Range. Main focus
for today's discussion will revolve around the interesting set up
for Friday and Saturday's winter storm and the forecast
uncertainties that still remain. Light snow accumulations are
looking likely for portions of the Central and Eastern Interior,
including Fairbanks, with highest totals in the Alaska range and
White Mountains. Low confidence still exists in how much
downsloping may occur which could greatly impact snowfall
forecasts for those areas just to the north of the Alaska range. Higher
confidence exists in the extended forecast going into next week
as reinforcing shots of arctic air keep temperatures well below
normal with additional chances for late season -40F lows.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Daytime highs moderate into the single digits below and above
  zero due to the increasing sun angles and sufficient daytime
  heating.

- A brief round of light snow today for the Upper Tanana Valley
  and Fortymile Country today, minor accumulations possible.

- Another chance for accumulating snowfall for most of the
  southeast Interior and Alaska Range Friday and Saturday. Winter
  Storm Watch for heavy snow has been issued for the Eastern
  Alaska Range south of Trims Camp early Friday morning through
  Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Below normal temperatures continue with double digit sub zero
  lows continuing into early next week.

- Another round of strong northerly winds through the Bering
  Strait Thursday into the weekend, peaking on Saturday. Blowing
  snow concerns for coastal communities from Point Hope to the
  western Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Below normal temperatures in the double digits below zero
  continue for the North Slope and Brooks Range.

- Northerly winds increase through the Brooks range this weekend.

- Another multi-day period of near blizzard conditions expected
  for the NE Arctic Coast Sunday through mid next week

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Little day to day change this week in the overall weather for much
of Alaska as surface high pressure and upper troughing overhead
have kept a dry and cold airmass in place. Mainly clear skies and
the increasing March sun angle have resulted in large diurnal
temperature swings with lows each morning in the -20F to -45F
range and highs reaching the single digits above and below zero.
Coldest spots remain in interior valleys while those at elevation
above the surface inversion have been noticeably warmer. Expect
this pattern to persist into at least Friday morning before the
core of the Arctic airmass shifts into the Northwest quadrant of
the state as the next weather system moves in from the southwest.

Focus shifts to the next winter storm expected to impact portions
of the Interior and Southern Alaska Friday through the weekend.
This is a relatively complex set up leading to lower than normal
confidence compared to the past several winter storms in
February. The set up involves a persistent upper low over the YK
Delta while strong southwesterly flow sets up on over the Gulf,
directing numerous systems into the AK Peninsula and South
Central Alaska. Ensemble guidance today has honed in on the track
of the surface low, with stronger agreement in a track directly
over Kodiak Island to the Kenai, then becoming quasi-stationary
over South Central Alaska Saturday before quickly weakening and
meandering into the Northeast Gulf over the weekend. The mid and
upper level low appear to be offset just to the northwest,
combining with the existing upper low in the YK Delta and becoming
quasi-stationary over the Central Interior and weakening
Saturday. Mid level vorticity maps show the frontal boundary on
the leading edge of the system pushing north of the Alaska Range
by Friday afternoon, then becoming elongated and stationary just
south of the brooks range. This frontal boundary will likely be
the focus for snow in the interior with heaviest snow expected
near the front from Eagle to the White Mountains and toward the
Dalton Highway Summits. Thinking Fairbanks and surrounding
locations could see a brief period of heavier snow as this frontal
boundary pushes through Friday afternoon into Friday evening,
before the band shifts northward.

The main area of concern is how much downsloping occurs on the
north side of the Alaska range and into the interior. With the
direction of the entire system coming from the southwest and likely
tracking over and just east of the Alaska Range, downsloping into
the interior may be relatively weak and directed more towards the
Tanana Valley. There may be a brief period Friday afternoon into
Friday evening where the orientation of the mid level low is good
for southerly winds over the Alaska range and downsloping. Forecast
soundings Friday show a strong easterly jet at and below 700mb
associated with the approaching front, while southwest flow above
that advects in deep moisture aloft. Both GFS and ECMWF forecast
soundings show deep saturation through the column and DGZ to
support snow as early as late Friday morning in Fairbanks and
surrounding areas. There are signs of subtle mid level downsloping
as evident by mid and low level dry air. While it should be
snowing north of the Alaska Range and into the Central and Eastern
Interior Friday, this drier layer from downsloping should keep
snowfall rates and overall accumulations lower. Also watching a
strong easterly low level jet on Friday, associated with the
incoming front, which may lead to lower snow to liquid rations
due to fracturing of snowflakes within the interior.

Overall, the timing of the best forcing for ascent appears to be
offset from the time when the best conditions occur for snow in
the interior without downsloping. Strongest forcing looks to be
during the frontal passage during the day Friday, at the same time
there will be some form of downsloping off the Alaska range. This
combination leads to overall lighter snow as the strong forcing
for ascent and heavier rates aloft battle with mid and low level
dry air and subsidence.

By Friday night, the overall system begins to weaken and the low
and mid level pressure gradient collapses. This is where
downsloping shuts off and deeper saturation through the lower
levels occurs, resulting in a brief period of heavier snow with
better snow to liquid ratios. At this time, expect snow to be
ongoing over the Eastern and Central Interior and also through the
Alaska Range. This quasi-stationary system basically sits over top
of the region while gradually weakening into Saturday night. The
extended period of light to occasionally moderate snow should lead
to widespread, yet light accumulations ranging from 4 to 7+ inches
within the white mountains to a dusting to under 3 inches for much
of the Interior. South and southwest facing slopes of the Alaska
Range could see much higher amounts; therefore a Winter Storm
Watch is still out for Isabell Pass and Eastern Alaska Range. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton Highway
Summits, Fortymile Country, White Mountains, and High Terrain
South of the Yukon River where slightly higher snowfall amounts
may occur under the stalled boundary.

Watching winds Friday and Saturday as this system moves in. A
strong low level easterly jet develops as the frontal system moves
northward into the state. This should lead to windy conditions
with gusts of 35-45mph throughout the White Mountains and areas at
elevation in the Eastern and Central Interior, leading to blowing
snow and lower visibility at times. Expect northerly winds to
increase through Brooks Range passes as the northerly pressure
gradient tightens north of the front. Strong northerly winds
develop through the Bering Strait Thursday and then peak on
Saturday with gusts over 50 kts possible at times. Blowing snow
and reduced visibility likely for areas right on the coast prone
to strong northerly flow. Strong winds nearing Advisory levels
are expected to occur within the Tanana Valley including Delta
Junction on Friday. Downsloping around Delta Junction may result
in the timing of the strongest winds occuring before the main
round of snow arrives in the Tanana Valley. As the low level
pressure gradient collapses Friday night and downsloping weakens,
then Delta Junction and surrounding areas should begin receiving
snow.

As mentioned above, there is lower confidence with this forecast
as any deviations to the track of the system can significantly
impact sensible weather impacts north of the Alaska range due to
varying degrees of downsloping and where the best moisture
transport and forcing are located. At the moment, expect light
snowfall accumulations through the Central and Eastern Interior
Friday into Saturday with heavier snow amounts north of Fairbanks
in the White Mountains and also along south facing slopes of the
Alaska Range.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

By late Saturday into Sunday, an additional shortwave moves into
the Gulf of Alaska and into Southeast Alaska shutting off moisture
advection into the Interior and shifting the heaviest
precipitation further southeast as well. As the entire system
weakens while still overhead, expect snow to gradually become
lighter and lighter before dissipating Saturday night.

Behind this system, yet another extended period of well below
normal temperatures is expected for the majority of Alaska. Deep
troughing sets up over NW Canada while ridging builds over the
Bering and Siberia, placing Alaska within a strong northerly flow
pattern aloft. This dry and cold pattern should support lows once
again in the double digits below zero, possibly nearing -40F again
in interior valleys. Will also have to watch for shortwaves riding
over the ridge and into the West Coast bringing chances for light
snow going into next week. Overall, the main focus will continue
to be the cold going into mid March.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ850.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-816-817-854-856-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

CRM