Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
700 AM AKST Sun Jan 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold and dry conditions will continue across Northern Alaska
today, with air temperatures across much of our region in the
20s/30s/40s below zero, as coldest spots reach down to the 50s to
around 60 below zero. Wind chills at times will be even colder,
especially as we see an increase in winds early this week. Light
snow showers and breezy winds will also persist for St. Lawrence
Island and YK Delta through this morning. A low pressure system
in the southern Bering Sea will move into Southern Alaska this
evening into Monday. This system will bring in a wetter and warmer
airmass, along with an increased winds as widespread snow moves
in. Snow chances will steadily build in from this evening into
Monday and Tuesday, lifting southwest to northeast across the
Interior through the week with increasing winds and warmer
temperatures. Winter Storm Watches and High Wind Watches have been
issued for where the strongest winds and highest snow totals are
expected across portions of the West Coast and Southwestern
Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Persistent, very cold conditions in the Interior remain in
  place, with clear and calm conditions as temperatures stay well
  below normal through Monday.

- Widespread temperatures in the 30s/40s below zero or colder will
  continue with 50s/60s below zero in the coldest spots.

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through Monday for the
  Central/Eastern Interior. Areas of dense ice fog are ongoing in
  the Fairbanks area and are expected to continue through the
  weekend. Patchy ice fog is also expected outside of FNSB.

- Snow chances and an increase in E/NE winds are expected to
  return Monday into Tuesday across the Interior, leading to
  warmer temperatures and widespread snow chances through midweek.
  Total snow accumulations of around 1-4", locally higher around
  4-8" especially in the Alaska Range.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend Monday into Tuesday with
  increased cloud cover, winds, and snow chances, before cooling
  back down for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures are expected
  to remain below zero regionwide for most.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero will continue,
  with 40s/50s below in the coldest spots. Warmest conditions are
  expected further southwest.

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through Monday for
  portions of the Western Interior, where temperatures in the
  40s/50s below zero and patchy ice fog remain possible.

- A low pressure system in the Bering Sea will move into Southern
  Alaska today into Monday as E/NE winds steadily increase and
  widespread snow chances build into the West Coast and Western
  Interior.

- High Wind Watches and Winter Storm Watches have been issued to
  capture the strongest winds and heaviest snow potential. Much of
  the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast will remain dry and
  windy with this event as the bulk of snow stays focused further
  south.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Very cold and dry conditions will remain in place over the North
  Slope into early next week. Widespread temperatures in the
  20s/30s below zero will persist, with 40s/50s below in the
  coldest spots.

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through Monday for the
  Eastern North Slope/Brooks Range for wind chills as low as 65 to
  70 below zero, particularly along the Arctic Coast.

- Winds will see an increase Monday into Tuesday as snow chances
  showers build in Tuesday into Wednesday. Strongest winds are
  expected along the NW Arctic Coast and higher elevations.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for the NW Arctic Coast from
  Point Hope to Point Lay where strongest winds are expected.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
At the 500 mb level, troughing extends from Northwest Territories
west into northeastern Alaska, while ridging is in place
extending from the North Pacific into the eastern Aleutians/
southeastern Bering Sea. At the 850 mb level, temperatures in the
eastern two-thirds of the Mainland north of the Alaska Range vary
from around -20 C to -30 C, with largely clear conditions in
place. At the surface, temperatures are widely in the -40s and
-50s F in much of the lower elevations of the Interior (and near
-60 F in spots), with somewhat warmer conditions (but still very
cold and occasionally in the -40s) on the North Slope. Over the
southern Bering Sea, a low with a surface pressure in the lower
950s mb has just shifted north of the Aleutians and will
initially shift north and then east over the next few days,
bringing the next round of significant weather to the area.

As the low moves eastward, temperatures will rise considerably
across the Interior, with many areas seeing upwards of 30-40
degrees of temperature rise. Arctic troughing aloft will
shift/extend west into Western Alaska and allow for south flow on
its eastern periphery, which may aid in warming. East winds will
pick up all along the West Coast and a frontal band on the low's
leading edge will begin to drop snowfall first over the southern
Yukon Delta area and Lower Yukon Valley this evening, then spread
into the Western Interior late tonight into tomorrow. Winds in
coastal locations could exceed 30 mph with gusts potentially
upwards of 50 mph in spots, so high wind watches have been issued
for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait/Northwest Arctic
coasts. In parts of the YK Delta, winds could blow snow to induce
low visibilities with blizzard conditions possible and a winter
storm watch in effect.

By Tuesday morning, snowfall will have spread into the Central
and parts of the Eastern Interior. During this time frame, heavier
snowfall rates are possible in parts of the Southwestern
Interior, with model guidance depicting saturation in the
dendritic growth zone supporting high snow-to-liquid ratios,
especially near McGrath. These areas could see accumulations of
5-10 inches, for which a winter storm watch has been issued for
snowfall. Lower totals of 1-4 inches are possible farther east
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Moving into Wednesday/D4, light snow will linger in the
Central/Eastern Interior through Friday, although coverage will be
sparser. By Wednesday into Thursday, Arctic troughing over
Eastern Alaska will have shifted/extended into Western Alaska,
with temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday widely falling
back into the -30s F (with colder temperatures limited by cloud
cover. By Friday into Saturday, south flow may take hold across
much of the Interior and lead to moderate warming, although
potential for an exit to the current cold paradigm looks to not
begin until early next week / after the extended forecast period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ801.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-808>812-828-829-831>847-849-
     851-852.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ830-851-852.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-803-852-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-812-856-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Storm Warning for PKZ851.
     Storm Warning for PKZ854.
&&

DS