Wind Advisory 30, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
653 AM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Thursday is expected to be drier with mixed clouds & sun. Rain
will likely make a return Friday morning as another low approaches
from the Bering Sea.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected through the Alaska Range passes
overnight Thursday through much of Friday. Wind gusts up to 55-60
mph are expected to peak early Friday morning and slowly weaken
through the day. A wind advisory has been issued for that area.

- Highs are expected to remain in the 50s and lower 60s for much of
the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A low approaches the West Coast Thursday and is expected to bring
gusty east to northeast winds and periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall to the West Coast and Western Interior through Friday.

- Rainfall totals will be around 0.50" to 1.50" Thursday & Friday
for most of the Western Interior with the highest amounts in the YK
Delta, Seward Peninsula, and the southern slopes of the Brooks
Range.

- Winds gust 30 to 50 mph across the West Coast and as high as 35
mph in some areas along the Western Interior as the low moves
through the area Thursday afternoon.

- Highs generally remain in the low to mid 50s through the end of
the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Another round of heavier rain showers & snow showers are expected
Friday in the Central Brooks Range. Snow accumulations are expected
mostly Friday morning with up to 5 inches expected above 3,000 feet.
This snow will melt some in the afternoon as it warms.

- Highs will warm back into the 40s & 50s Friday except for the
Atigun Pass area of the Dalton HWY, which will stay in the upper 20s
into to the 30s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...The next approaching Bering Sea Low will approach the
West Coast Thursday, & will bring with it gusty winds, some moderate-
to-heavy rainfall to the West Coast, the Western Interior, & the
Central Brooks Range. Wintry mix & snow are possible in the higher
elevations of the Brooks Range & the higher elevations of the Alaska
Range with this system. Beyond that, an overall cooler & generally
moist pattern follows through the end of the forecast period.

.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...Another shortwave trof
moved across northern Alaska with rain showers into Wednesday night,
bringing some appreciable rainfall amounts for the Interior, & it
brought the Brooks Range & portions of the eastern North Slope some
accumulating snow showers with accumulations around central &
eastern Brooks Range mountain passes with the highest amounts being
in the higher elevations of the central & eastern Brooks Range of up
to around 5 inches. Now, a short-lived ridge of high pressure moves
through the area for Thursday, bringing some nicer, clearer, drier
weather to the interior & North Slope before another 987mb Bering
Sea low with an associated cold front pushes into the general Norton
Sound area by Thursday afternoon, bringing more wind & appreciable
moderate-to-heavy rainfall rates with model forecast Precipitable
Water values around between 1.1 & 1.5 inches from the southern
Seward Peninsula to Norton Sound, the YK Delta, & the Western
Interior as it pushes through from SW to NE toward the Brooks Range.
The central & eastern Brooks Range, especially above 3,000 ft, will
be cold enough for the precipitation to start out as snow with
around 1 to 4 inches of forecast accumulation in the central Brooks
Range with a gradual transition to rain from south to north and
increasing in elevation over time as a warm front pushes through,
bringing southerly WAA to that area, which can easily be seen in the
850mb model temperature forecast. The snow will worsen conditions
around Atigun Pass along the Dalton HWY for Friday. It will also
bring some rather windy/gusty conditions through the Alaska Range
mountain passes with frequent southerly wind gusts up to 55 to 60
mph for late Thursday night through Friday evening. Therefore, a
Wind Advisory has been issued for Isabel Pass for that timeframe.
This is being caused by a tightened pressure gradient over the
Alaska Range between higher pressure to the south and lower pressure
to the north of that area. There is enough upper level support to
bring the wind down to the surface through the mountain passes.
Then, there will be a short-lived break in the weather from another
ridge of high pressure that noses in primarily affecting the AOR for
Saturday.

&&

.LONG RANGE.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...An arctic low and
associated cold front push southeastward from the Chukchi sea
through the Brooks Range & through the Interior for the latter half
of the weekend into the first part of next week, bringing increased
moisture & advecting-in colder air, bringing decent chances colder
temperatures to our entire AOR, & bringing some wintry mix / snowy
precipitation with it, primarily around the higher elevations of the
Brooks & Alaska Ranges. Then, another ridge of high pressure builds
into the state before another Bering Sea low pushes into the YK
Delta region & rapidly weakens as it quickly pushes northeastward
through the state.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential.../Thursday through Saturday/...There are
no major coastal flooding concerns for the period as the Bering Sea
low's track is not as supportive of water level rises that would be
impactful for the western coast of Alaska, with the Norton Sound
area mainly getting only up to around 1 to 2 ft above the normal
high tide line with extreme eastern Norton Sound potentially getting
up to 4 ft above the normal high tide line. The main forecasted
impact looks to be some possible minor beach erosion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Overall, the cooler, cloudier, & wetter
conditions have appreciably limited fire development potential over
our AOR for the last few days. Another quick-moving ridge builds
back into the region, giving warmer & drier conditions for the
Interior through Thursday. Gusty southerly winds set back up over
the Alaska Range Tanana valley for late Thursday evening through
Friday as another Bering Sea low to the northwest over the Norton
Sound area pushes east-northeastward, creating a tightened pressure
gradient between it and higher pressure to the southeast & adequate
upper-level support, once again. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been
issued for the Isabel Pass area for frequent wind gusts up to 55-60
mph. The general downslope flow off the Alaska range may
additionally help drop minimum Relative Humidity values for the
Upper Tanana Valley region into the 30s & 40s% range for Thursday &
Friday. The incoming Bering Sea Low will generally be a wet system
for our AOR through the weekend, further inhibiting fire
development. The exception will be the Upper Tanana Valley, once
again. The rain will struggle to make it there due to them being
rain-shadowed to the southwest. The highest chance for some wetting
showers to make it to the Upper Tanana Valley area is Friday
into Saturday, but the rain-shadowing may end up being too
strong. High temperatures for the Upper Tanana Valley look to
reach near 60 through the weekend. Fortunately convective
indices continue to be non-conducive for thunderstorm
development through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Incoming moderate to heavy rainfall from the incoming Bering Sea Low
moving through over the next couple days across the West Coast and
Western Interior is expected to induce some water level rises across
streams in those areas, but no flooding concerns are anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-851.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802-816-850.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ803-805-806-852-854.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ808-809-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT
     this evening for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ853.
&&

KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS...CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERS
LONG TERM...CHAMBERS
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...CHAMBERS
FIRE WEATHER...CHAMBERS
HYDROLOGY...CHAMBERS