Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

094 
WWAK63 PAFG 200552
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
952 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026

AKZ937-200700-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260520T0600Z/
Delta Junction-
952 PM AKDT Tue May 19 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

Relative humidity values have risen above 25 percent and winds 
are expected to weaken through tomorrow morning. Critical fire 
weather conditions are not expected on Wednesday.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
515 AM AKDT Mon May 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather continues across majority of northern Alaska as
southerly flow has set up from a low in the Bering. Portions of
the western Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait may continue to see
a chance for mixed precipitation through the end of today. Over
the next few days, a series of fronts will work their way across
the state, bringing chances for isolated showers and afternoon
thunderstorms. Most of the precipitation will be confined to the
west of the Central Interior as the southerly flow over the Alaska
Range will result in downsloping across the Eastern Interior.
Some isolated showers may still be possible on the south facing
side of elevated terrain. In addition to this, these systems will
bring another round of gusty gap winds through the Alaska Range
passes. Cold and cloudy conditions are expected to continue over
the North Slope through the end of the week as high pressure
continues to linger over the Arctic.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered showers are expected to begin for the
  Interior today into Tuesday with a non-zero chance of embedded
  thunderstorms amongst the showers.

- Southerly winds will be diurnally driven throughout the week.
  Another round of strong gap winds are expected through the
  Alaska Range passes beginning late tonight, persisting through
  Tuesday night. Wind gusts through Isabel and Windy Pass are
  expected to be between 45 and 55 mph. The strongest gusts are
  expected through Isabel Pass.

- Seasonably normal temperatures are expected to continue across
  the Interior through much of the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Periods of wintry mix are expected to continue through this
  morning from St. Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait. Light ice
  accumulations are possible. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
  effect through this afternoon.

- Gusty S-SE winds are expected across the West Coast Tuesday
  afternoon with the shortwave passage.

- Numerous waves of precipitation is expected to move N/NW across
  the YK-Delta throughout the week. Most of the precipitation will
  fall as rain, but some patches of wet snow is possible.
	- Another round of freezing precipitation is possible through the
   Bering Strait late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in
  the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures
  across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along
  the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.

- Northeast wind speeds are expected remain elevated for the
  western North Slope through tonight. There may be periods of
  blowing snow at Point Lay if there remains enough blowable snow
  to their northeast.

- Showery conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday
  along the southern portions of the Brooks Range. Little to no
  precipitation is expected across the North Slope.

- A brief period of increased wind gusts is expected for the NE
  Arctic Coast Tuesday, bringing the potential for blowing snow.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Monday through Wednesday.
An active pattern continues across much of the state to kick off
the week. The bulk of the weather is being driven by a Bering low
that has been spinning west of St. Lawrence Island over the last
day or so. Meanwhile, an upper-level high has set up over the
western Chukchi, along with a ridge strengthening over Canada.

The forecast period starts with a line of showers across the
central portion of the West Coast, that will continue to shift to
the N/NW throughout today. With cold air advection moving south
down the Bering, the western side of this line of showers,
extending over the Bering Strait, will see a chance for wintry
precipitation through the end of today. Another line of energy
will move north across the state today, bringing chances for
scattered showers and a slight chance for isolated afternoon
thunderstorms. This wave will also work to continue the southerly
flow that has been set up across majority of the state. With the
southerly flow continuing, the south facing slopes of the Brooks
Range are expected to get persistent showers with each of these
passing systems. A more pronounced shortwave will follow behind
the line of energy, moving over the Seward Peninsula by early
Wednesday morning. This will continue to allow the chances for
isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms for the Central
Interior and West Coast through the middle portions of the week.

Looking back over the Interior, majority of the area will continue
to see the southerly flow set up by the broad troughing across the
state. This will keep the area mostly dry, however a shower or two
may still be possible at times. With the shortwave moving over the
Seward Peninsula, energy from this will extend over the Alaska
Range as it shifts north. This will help enhance the gradient and
bring the next round for gusty gap winds beginning early Tuesday
morning.

A similar pattern is expected to continue toward the later half
of the week. By the end of the short-term period, another low will
be moving along the northern side of the Aleutians, towards
Bristol Bay. This will help to continue the broad troughing across
the state and set up another potential for gusty gap winds
through the Alaska Range on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low continues to spin in the Bering Sea with ridging persisting
over western Canada. As expected, this pattern will allow for
strong southerly flow to continue over the state. As the pressure
gradient briefly weakens over the Alaska Range, winds will weaken
by the late morning before restrengthening Tuesday morning. This
second round of winds through the passes will mimic fairly similar
conditions this past weekend with gusts as high as 60 mph
possible through Isabel and Windy Pass, and gusts as high as 50
mph through Delta Junction. This cycle of rising and falling winds
looks to repeat itself again, with winds weakening Wednesday and
strengthening again on Thursday. With min RH values at Delta
Junction expected to hover at or near 25% throughout the week, we
will be keeping an eye out for potential Red Flag conditions,
especially when the winds are strongest Tuesday and Thursday.

Across the rest of Northern Alaska, sunny skies and prolonged
daytime heating will keep high temperatures in the 60s, with the
warmest temperatures expected on Tuesday in the Yukon Flats. Min RH
values will bottom out around 20% across much of the Tanana Valley
and Yukon Flats on Tuesday as well, with the western portions of
Alaska seeing min RH values between 30 to 40% through the week.
Isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers will be possible across
the Yukon Delta and eastern Interior this week, but accumulations
should remain light. A few of these showers may develop into
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon, but overall lightning
chances should remain low. Winds away from the Alaska Range will
generally be out of the south/southeast becoming gusty in the
evening and at higher elevations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Yukon River:
The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Grayling. Water remains
high on the Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt
with a Flood Warning remaining in effect for Galena through 10 PM
tonight. No significant flooding is expected from this high water,
although there may be areas of minor flooding. The latest data
from the river gauge at Galena shows the water levels dropping
down to 123.7ft and into Action Stage. High water is possible in
some villages along the Lower Yukon over the next few days.

Buckland River:
Water levels are falling and the river upstream of Buckland is
open.

Chena:
The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures with
higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than
normal, but likely remaining below action stage.

Additional Information:
Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest hydro information.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Sunday.
High confidence remains in place through the extended forecast,
with a broad upper level trough over the Bering Sea and a ridge of
high pressure situated in the NE Pacific. This setup will remain
conducive for southerly flow to continue across much of the state,
keeping temperatures near normal with highs around the
30s/40s/50s along the coast and 50s/60s in the Interior. The
coldest conditions will continue to be across the North Slope
north of the Brooks Range where highs in the 20s/30s will be more
common with 40s farther south. Long range models remain in good
agreement on the location and strength of a surface low around 985
mb in the Southern Bering Sea for Thursday. This system is
expected to take a northeast track towards Southwest Alaska and as
it does, eject a series of fronts into Northern Alaska that will
keep daily scattered showers around heading into the weekend. As
this low approaches, a pressure gradient will develop with high
pressure over the High Arctic which will lead to gusty winds
developing along the West Coast and through Alaska Range Passes.
Wind gusts up to around 25-40 mph are expected along the West
Coast with gusts up to around 50-65 mph for Alaska Range Passes
and at Delta Junction. As the late week Bering Sea low ultimately
weakens and dissipates its energy, long range models remain in
reasonable agreement on another 985 mb low moving into the Gulf of
Alaska this weekend. At this time, this system is expected to
stay farther south, with daily scattered shower chances reinforced
into early next week by the now broad upper level troughing setup
over our region.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
     Flood Watch for AKZ829-830.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-851-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ858.
&&

Twombly
MacKay - Extended
Santiago - Fire Wx