Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

541 
WWAK63 PAFG 260810
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1210 AM AKDT Fri Jun 26 2026

AKZ931-260915-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260626T0800Z/
Upper Koyukuk Valley-
1210 AM AKDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR LIGHTNING...

Chances for lightning will continue to diminish throughout the 
overnight hours.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
512 AM AKDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A front lingers across the Interior again today, which will
support another round of thunderstorms in northeast, central, and
southwest portions of the State. Also, the Upper Tanana Valley and
Fortymile Country will see showers and thunderstorms as well
thanks to moisture coming in from the east. A trough is sweeping
across the Arctic Coast Thursday morning, behind which northerly
winds into the North Slope, Northwest Arctic Coast, and Bering
Strait will strengthen. Saturday, A low in the Bering in tandem
with leftover energy in the Gulf will bring chances for up to an
inch of rain, possibly more, for the Interior through the weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected in a similar area of the
  North Central Interior today, mostly from Arctic Village to
  Anaktuvuk Pass southward along the Dalton and towards Tanana and
  west from the Dalton Highway.

- Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana Valley will have showers
  and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, followed by up to
  half an inch of rain in the Upper Tanana Valley and up to an
  inch in the Eastern Alaska Range through Friday.

- Thursday and Friday max temperatures will be in the low to mid
  70s, isolated thunderstorms expected in the Central Interior on
  Friday.

- This weekend comes with isolated to scattered storms ahead of a
  cold front on Saturday, then the potential for heavy rain from
  the Alaska Range to the Yukon River on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- The Kobuk and lower Koyukuk Valleys will be near critical fire
  weather conditions due to hot, dry and windy conditions again
  Thursday afternoon. Northwesterly winds will increase in the
  afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday
  afternoon from Aniak to Ruby with isolated storms over the
  Nulato hills. Thunderstorm chances lessen and move east this
  weekend.

- Northerly winds along the Northwest Arctic Coast, through the
  Bering Strait, and towards St Lawrence Island will strengthen
  behind a front Thursday afternoon and remain high through
  Saturday.

- On Saturday, a cold front will travel north through the Western
  Region bringing widespread rain along with it. Heavy rain is
  possible in the Western Alaska Range and middle Kuskokwim
  Valley.

- High temps in the Western Interior will be in the mid 70s to low
  80s through Friday and through Saturday for areas north of
  Galena. Saturday, maximum temperatures in the southwest Interior
  and YK Delta will be much cooler, in the low 60s and 50s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- On the eastern half of the North Slope, it will be dry and sunny
  today with warm temperatures. Scattered thunderstorms are likely
  again over the Central and Eastern Brooks Range with an isolated
  storm possible near Kaktovik.

- An arctic front arrives Thursday afternoon and moves west to
  east. A few showers are possible, but the most noticeable change
  will be temps dropping into the 30s and 40s with areas of
  stratus/fog in the plains and along the coast by Friday.

- Winds will be gusting up to 25 mph as the front passes through,
  being strongest along the western Arctic Coast. Ahead of the
  front, winds will be southwesterly. Behind the front, winds will
  turn northerly and eventually northeasterly in the evening.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A front remains relatively stationary, stretched diagonally
across the Interior this morning. At the upper levels, high
pressure holds over the western half of Alaska, but a trough from
the Arctic, a 544 decameter low in the Gulf, and a 538 decameter
low in the Bering surround the state. The low in the Gulf
continues to be the primary source of activity until the low in
the Bering begins to take a more prominent role on Saturday.
Thursday, the combination of the stalling front in Interior and
high pressure over the west will allow thunderstorms to develop
in a similar area as Wednesday; from the lower Yukon River to the
eastern Arctic Coast. Weather in the northwest Interior, including
the Kobuk and Koyukuk Valley, will be sunny, warm, and dry
leading to near critical fire weather conditions Thursday
afternoon. The Arctic trough will pass across the North Slope
today, with surface high pressure moving in over northeastern
Siberia. As the front moves through, there may be some light
precipitation along the North Slope, but nothing significant.
The high pressure that comes in behind it will lead to persistent
northerly winds along the West Coast from Thursday evening through
much of the weekend.

Friday, thunderstorm coverage will increase as more shortwave
energy is pumped into the Interior from the east. As a result,
thunderstorm chances cover much of the Central to the Eastern
Interior as well as parts of the Southwest thanks to the low in
the Bering. Friday looks like it will be the warmest day for much
of the Interior as well, with daily high temperatures near 80 for
most areas of the Interior, apart from the southeast here it will
be a little cooler.

Saturday, the low in the Bering begins to send a front into
southwest Alaska, but also, a lot of left over energy from the low
in the Gulf will be pushed upward by a ridge in the North Pacific
and will get wrapped up in the low as well. As a result, the
Interior will see another widespread heavy rain event on Saturday
and through the weekend. Rain totals between Saturday and Sunday
range between half an inch to an inch for much of the Interior.
Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the system on Saturday,
but Sunday will likely be primarily stratiform rain. Weak ridging
will persist over the North Slope.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near Critical conditions will be possible again today in the Kobuk
and Lower Koyukuk Valleys. We will see temperatures in the low 80s
with minimum RH values near 25%. The winds may be the limiting
factor as they don't begin to strengthen to 15 to 20 mph until the
afternoon. These winds however will bring cooler temperatures with
it, so once the winds do begin to blow temperatures should be below
the critical threshold.

Across the rest of the Interior isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will once again be possible today from the Kuskokwim mountains
northeast to the Eastern Brooks Range. These storms will produce
wetting rain, but also frequent lightning. Expect the thunderstorm
location to be in the same region as they were yesterday
(Wednesday). Temperatures will steadily rise today as ridging begins
to build into the Interior, and expect the warmest day to be on
Friday. Minimum RH values should not be a concern for most as there
is still lingering moisture from the cold front that moves through
the region a couple of days ago, with the exception of the Kobuk and
Lower Koyukuk Valleys.

Another wet system is expected to arrive on Saturday. With a cold
front extending into the Southern Interior bringing widespread
wetting rains, with the potential to see an inch or more of
rainfall. The highest rain amounts will be near the Alaska Range,
Tanana Valley, and the southern slopes of the White Mountains. There
is still some uncertainty regarding exact amounts, but confidence
is high on widespread wetting rains in the Southern Interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AK Range drainage creeks/rivers are running high with some near
bankfull but there is no concern for flooding at this time. The
main concern is water over gravel bars, but high water levels
should recede gradually though the week. Otherwise, we are
monitoring the potential for heavy rain this weekend in the Alaska
Range and Interior, south of the Yukon. There are fairly high
probabilities for >1" of rain (25 to 50%) in the AK Range, Tanana
Valley and south of the Yukon River from Saturday into Sunday.
While there is uncertainty with the placement of the heaviest
rain, highest certainty is in the Alaska Range with lower
certainty towards Fairbanks and points west. We will be monitoring
this closely through the week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Starting Sunday the ridge that remains over the North Slope will
begin to weaken as a closed low from the Bering Sea moves into the
Interior, and an arctic low moves south. By Tuesday the arctic low
will situate itself over the Chukchi Sea and the closed low will
orient itself over North Central Alaska. A cold front, brought on by
the closed low, will move Northward. The frontal system will focus
thunderstorms and showers in the Southern Interior beginning Sunday,
progressively moving Northward before dissipating South of the Brooks
Range by Wednesday morning. Gusty winds are likely to follow the
front with the most impactful winds localized to higher terrain
within the Central Interior Sunday to Monday morning. Following the
front below average temperatures are likely from Sunday to Tuesday
across the Interior, before beginning a warming trend as of
Wednesday as the front fully dissipates.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
&&

Troyke
Dennis - Fire Weather
Donner - Extended