High Wind Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

395 
WWAK73 PAFG 022118
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
118 PM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

AKZ847-040015-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0008.260803T0600Z-260805T1200Z/
Northern Denali Borough-
Including the cities of the Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288,
Anderson, Kantishna, Healy, and Denali National Park
118 PM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY EVENING TO 
4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Windy Pass.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday evening to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Gusty winds could blow around 
  unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AKZ849-040015-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0008.260803T1200Z-260805T1200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of the Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP
259, Donnelly Dome, and Black Rapids
118 PM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM AKDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Gusty winds could blow around 
  unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AKZ837-040015-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0024.260803T1200Z-260805T1200Z/
Delta Junction-
Including the cities of Fort Greely, Deltana, and Delta Junction
118 PM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM AKDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Delta Junction.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing dust could 
  result in low visibility at times. Gusty winds could blow around 
  unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

DS

493 
WWAK73 PAFG 032131
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2026

AKZ847-050000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260805T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0025.260803T2131Z-260805T1200Z/
Northern Denali Borough-
Including the cities of the Parks Highway from MP 237 to MP 288,
Kantishna, Healy, Anderson, and Denali National Park
131 PM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Windy Pass.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Gusty winds could blow around 
  unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AKZ849-050000-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-260805T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0025.260803T2131Z-260805T1200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of the Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP
259, Black Rapids, and Donnelly Dome
131 PM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Gusty winds could blow around 
  unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power 
  outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

AKZ837-032245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-260805T1200Z/
Delta Junction-
Including the cities of Fort Greely, Deltana, and Delta Junction
131 PM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

MacKay

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The forecast continues to remain largely on track as a ridge of
high pressure which has built across the western interior slowly
pushes east through the weekend. Warmer temperatures reaching into
the 70s and even the low 80s are expected for much of the area. A
shortwave trough tracking northeast across western Alaska will
continue to bring isolated showers for the West Coast and western
Interior along with the Brooks Range/North Slope through Sunday.
Guidance has come into broad agreement on the placement and
strength of a low in the northern Bering Sea, which will slowly
track east into northern Alaska with widespread rain and gusty
winds early next week. High Wind Watches remain in effect for the
Alaska Range passes and Delta Junction Sunday night into Monday
and Tuesday where the strongest winds are expected. This system
will be tapping into subtropical atmospheric river moisture,
which will lead to widespread moderate to heavy rainfall totals of
1-2 inches over a 48-72 hour period, focused across western
Alaska and the southern slopes of the Brooks Range. As this
system gradually weakens towards midweek, winds will lessen as
precipitation chances become more isolated to scattered. Ensembles
are in broad agreement that the low will slowly disintegrate
through the remainder of the week, with the potential for a ridge
to build over the eastern half of the interior in its wake.
Concurrently, temperatures that briefly cooled earlier in the week
will hold steady or see a warming trend to finish out the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm and dry conditions will continue across much of the
  Interior through the weekend with plenty of sunshine. Highs will
  remain in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the 40s/50s.

- Isolated rain showers will be possible late Saturday into Sunday
  as a weak front tracks east over the Interior, but conditions
  are expected to remain predominantly dry.

- As a low from the Bering Sea tracks east Sunday into Monday,
  widespread rain and gusty winds will shift east across the
  Interior and Alaska Range. The bulk of precipitation is expected
  west of Fairbanks and in the Alaska Range, with driest
  conditions along the Alcan Border and Upper Tanana Valley.

- Rainfall totals late Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be
  around 0.10-0.25" around FNSB, T-0.10" east of Fairbanks to the
  Alcan Border, 0.25-1.00" northwest of Fairbanks, and 0.50-1.50"
  in the Alaska Range west of the Tok Cutoff.

- High Wind Watches have been issued for the Alaska Range passes
  and Delta Junction from Sunday night through Tuesday night for
  southerly wind gusts up to around 60 to 70 mph. Wind gusts
  elsewhere across the Interior will peak on Monday around 20 to
  30 mph.

- As the Bering Sea low gradually weakens midweek, isolated to
  scattered rain showers will continue with temperatures that
  briefly cooled earlier in the week holding steady or seeing a
  warming trend to finish out the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue across much of
  western Alaska through Saturday night, with isolated rain
  showers possible. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s with lows
  in the 40s/50s, locally cooler along the West Coast.

- As a low in the Bering Sea tracks east Sunday into Monday,
  widespread rain and gusty winds will shift east across western
  Alaska. Steadier rain will reach St. Lawrence Island around
  midnight Sunday morning and West Coast throughout the day
  Sunday.

- Rainfall totals Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be around
  0.50-1.50" regionwide, with locally higher totals up to around
  2.00".

- Winds gusts will peak around 30 to 50 mph regionwide as the low
  moves in, with minor coastal impacts expected (primarily high
  surf) for communities along the West Coast.

- As the Bering Sea low gradually weakens midweek, isolated to
  scattered rain showers will continue with temperatures that
  briefly cooled earlier in the week holding steady or seeing a
  warming trend to finish out the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Isolated to scattered rain showers build in through the weekend
  out of the west. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s with lows
  in the 40s/50s, locally cooler along the Arctic Coast.

- While rainfall totals through the weekend are expected to remain
  light overall, steadier rain will move into the Brooks Range on
  Monday as moisture from a low in the Bering Sea tracks north.

- Rainfall totals Monday and Tuesday will be heaviest in central
  and eastern portions of the Brooks Range, where around
  0.50-1.50" of rain is expected, focused on the southern slopes,
  as the North Slope gets downsloped and stays predominantly dry.

- As the Bering Sea low gradually weakens midweek, isolated to
  scattered rain showers will continue with temperatures that
  briefly cooled earlier in the week holding steady or seeing a
  warming trend to finish out the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A weak
shortwave trough is moving northeast through Norton Sound this
morning. This will bring scattered rain showers to the Seward
Peninsula and to the Western Brooks Range. As the shortwave moves
across the North Slope an embedded isolated thunderstorm could be
possible, these chances will be limited by the amount of cloud
cover in the region this afternoon. With cloud cover limiting the
surface temperatures, convection will be heavily reliant on cold
air advection in the mid levels and the upper level shortwave
trough to create instability. For the rest of Northern Alaska
today will be generally quiet ahead of the approaching Bering Sea
Storm.

Sunday afternoon the pattern will shift to the stormier side, as a
988 mb low will move towards St. Lawrence Island. This low will be
accompanied by an atmospheric river with moisture originating from
the tropics. As the low moves closer to the West Coast, this
atmospheric river will be directed towards the West Coast and
Western Interior. This atmospheric river is producing impressive
returns from the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) with a wide swath
of 0.95 to even pockets of 1.0. This paired with a shift of tails
of 2, shows that this system is anomalous for this time of year.
With how anomalous this system is, the models are struggling with
the amount of qpf that the West Coast and Western Interior will
see. There is a spread of 0.5" to 1.0" of qpf between the 25th
percentiles and 75th percentiles. While 0.5" to 1.0" of qpf
wouldn't make that much of difference, when we are expecting
widespread 1" to 2" an additional 1.0" of qpf could exacerbate any
hydrological concerns. East of Tanana we are expecting much lower
rain amounts, as the Alaska Range will downslope most of the
precipitation.

As the Bering Low approaches the West Coast, southwesterly winds
will increase across much of the Coastline. Sunday afternoon the
winds from the Seward Peninsula to the Y-K Delta will begin to ramp
up with winds up to 45 mph. The strongest winds will be along the
coastline. By Monday morning the pressure gradient across the Alaska
Range will begin to tighten. With a gradient of 6 to 8 mbs across
the Alaska Range, there is support for wind gusts up to 70 mph in
the passes. Models have been steadily decreasing the pressure
gradient in Windy Pass, which could see the max winds drop down to
around 60 mph. As we get more Hi-Resolution model guidance we will
be able to identify if that trend continues. As the Bering Sea low
continues to linger in the Bering through Tuesday morning, a
prolonged fetch of southwesterly winds will bring higher waters to
Norton Sound. This will be highlighted in more detail in the
"Coastal Hazard" section, but no significant impacts are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively warm and dry conditions continue across the Interior
Saturday. Temperatures peak in the mid to upper 70s with minimum
humidity bottoming out near 30% in the upper Tanana Valley and in
the mid 30s to low 40s throughout much of the rest of the Interior.
A large, very wet, low pressure system approaches the West Coast
Sunday and brings with it two main impacts.

The first is strong south to southeasterly winds across the region,
first to the West Coast Sunday afternoon, then to the Western
Interior Sunday evening, and to much of the rest of the Interior
Monday morning. These winds are expected to be strongest through the
Alaska Range Passes where wind gusts into the 60 to 70 mph range are
possible through Tuesday. A high wind watch is currently in effect
for areas north of the Alaska Range, especially along the Parks and
Richardson highways. There remains some uncertainty in the max
strength of these strongest winds. Elsewhere gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range are possible throughout the Western Interior with gusts in
that same range being frequent along the coast. The Central and
Eastern Interior will see fewer gusts reaching as deep into the
valleys with occasional gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible.

The second is a great deal of rain, especially throughout the
Western Interior. Storm total rain forecasts Sunday through Tuesday
are currently in the 1 to 2 inch range. Dry air north of the Alaska
Range will limit rain totals throughout the Tanana Valley and areas
east of Fairbanks are expected to see much less rain than the rest
of the region. The Central Interior sees much less certain totals as
the edge of the heaviest precipitation lies there with totals under
half an inch currently expected near Fairbanks with higher totals
nearer an inch and a half are possible farther west near Tanana and
Bettles. There exists a non-zero chance of extremely isolated
thunderstorms across the Western Interior amongst the rain showers
Tuesday and the system weakens.

With the rain comes cooler temperatures and much more moist humidity
levels. High temperatures are expected to fall into the 60 to 70
range across much of the Interior Monday with the Upper Tanana
Valley and Fortymile Country remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures rise slightly Tuesday as rains weaken. Minimum humidity
rises well above 50 for most of the western portions of the state
and above 40 for the Eastern Interior Monday. Humidities fall
slightly Tuesday and further Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An atmospheric river arriving across the western interior late
Sunday into Monday will bring river rises across smaller rivers in
the west and along the Alaska Range through the first half of next
week. Precipitation totals of 1-2 inches are looking increasingly
likely from Sunday to Tuesday for these areas, with isolated higher
amounts possible in areas of terrain. No flooding concerns are
expected.

&&

.LONG RANGE FORECAST...
Ensemble guidance begins to diverge on the exact details of the
forecast through the second half of the week, but maintains
general placement of the key features and their corresponding
impacts. An occluding low over the west coast will continue to
weaken, and ensemble guidance is in broad agreement on the low
being likely to devolve into an open trough which anchors itself
across the central and western interior. This would result in
continuing chances of rain showers for much of the area, although
any additional significant rain accumulations by this point would
be confined to areas S of the Wrangell St. Elias mountains. A
ridge anchored over the Yukon will prevent this trough from
moving east, while another ridge over the Gulf of Alaska will
likely prevent the trough from diving south. Ensembles have begun
hinting towards the possibility that the ridge in the Yukon may
extend into the eastern interior, which would bring warmer weather
and drier conditions back to the eastern portion of the state.
Winds will be on the lower side as the low weakens and the
pressure gradient subsides, and temperatures will be cooler in the
West, and warmer the further east one goes. All in all, precip
chances are more likely to linger across the western half of the
state while the eastern half will see better chances of warmer and
drier weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Some minor beach erosion and high surf are possible for Norton
Sound and the Kuskokwim Delta Monday and Tuesday as a 985-990 mb
low over St Lawrence Island sends southerly winds up across much
of the West Coast. More updates will be made available this
weekend as forecast confidence in a final track and strength of
the low develops, which will lead to increasing confidence on
exact water level rises expected in each community. Currently
water level rises above high tide look to generally be between 1-3
feet. Stay tuned for additional updates

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ837-849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ847.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-856>858.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Spann/MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Dennis
FIRE WEATHER...Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Spann/Mckay
LONG TERM......Spann
COASTAL........Spann/MacKay