Gale Warning 29, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
631 AM AKST Sat Jan 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Generally fair weather is expected to continue across much of the
state. However, there are a few exceptions due to light snow and
gusty winds, mainly over the Arctic and West Coast this weekend,
and possibly for the Interior early next week. The main hazard
continues to be gusty winds, which in certain areas will lead to
blizzard conditions in the western portions of the North Slope
starting on Sunday. These conditions expand to the east later in
the week. Around mid-week, the winds develop over the Interior
near the Dalton Highway. Light snow showers will be possible
especially in areas near mountains, but especially in the North
Slope, West Coast this weekend, and for the Eastern Interior mid-
week. Otherwise, strong inversions are likely to continue over
the lower valleys in the Interior. Periods of gap valley winds are
likely north of the Alaska Range by mid-week too.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Fair and dry conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
  continue through the weekend as strong inversions persist.

- Southerly gap winds continue through the Alaska Range Passes
  early this morning leading to locally warmer temperatures in the
  20 to low 30s range above zero.

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys remain around -10F to -20F
  with the higher elevation areas around 20F to 30F above zero
  through early next week.

- Outside of isolated and light snow showers early next week,
  steadier snow chances will build-in out of the southeast late
  Tuesday into Wednesday, with the best chances across the higher
  elevations.

- Temperatures rise mid to late week, as winds ramp up across the
  higher elevations and around the Middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers continue across the West Coast through early next
  week, while dry conditions prevail for the Western Interior. A
  trace to 2 inches of snow accumulation is expected along the
  West Coast through Monday.

- Wind gusts up to 40 mph continue from the Bering Straight south
  to the Y-K Delta and in the Interior Norton Sound through this
  morning.

- Winds will steadily increase from the NW Arctic Coast southwest
  to St. Lawrence Island Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts up to 45
  mph in this corridor may lead to areas of blowing snow at
  times.

- Temperatures hold steady into early next week with highs in the
  single digits and teens and lows in the single digits above and
  below zero with the coldest locations dropping to around -15F.

- Snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday into
  Thursday with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Improved visibility and low clouds persists through the weekend
  for most areas.

- Light snow showers continue over the Brooks Range and Eastern
  North Slope through early next week with a trace to 3 inches of
  snow accumulation expected through Monday.

- Another extended period of blizzard conditions is expected
  through much of next week from Point Lay to Point Hope, where a
  Winter Storm Watch was issued from Sunday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures cool down to the -10F to -30F range this weekend with
  even colder wind chills. This is followed by a gradual warming
  trend for the rest of the work week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday Night.

No significant changes are observed with this forecast package
from yesterday. Current conditions based on satellite imagery and
observations across northern Alaska continue to indicate generally
fair weather over the interior with strong valley inversions,
along with isolated light snow showers in the West and Arctic
Coast. Some gusty winds continue over Alaska Range passes with
gusts still between 20-30 mph. The winds should continue to
weaken through the morning hours as the pressure gradient relaxes
with a departing shortwave over southwestern Alaska.

The weather pattern this weekend shows the expansion of a high
amplitude upper level ridge from the US West Coast towards AK and
covering much of the Interior with a 495 dam upper low over
northern Nunavut. At the surface, we have a 1040 mb high pressure
in the Arctic and a 960mb low over the Gulf of Alaska. These two
systems will continue to interact with each other as the high
slowly moves east and the low tries to move onshore. However,
models keep the low mostly offshore and possibly reaching
southwestern AK.

Anyway, as these two low level systems get closer to each other
they will tighten the pressure gradient resulting in gusty winds
for the Arctic Coast, especially from Point Hope to Point Lay,
where northeast to east-northeast gusts up to 65 mph are possible.
Thus the potential for blizzard conditions. The trend hasn't
changed much with this setup persisting in the region for several
days. Then conditions slowly improve around mid-week. So, it is
very likely that the Winter Storm Watch will be upgraded to a
Blizzard Warning later today. Northeast gusty winds increase over
the northeastern Arctic coast by Barter Island late on Sunday into
Monday, but the winds are not as strong. Low chances for snow are
expected to continue in the Arctic Coast from Nuiqsut to Kaktovik
that could enhance visibility reductions due to blowing snow once
the winds pick up in intensity.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday through Friday Night.

A series of lows in the northern Pacific move into the Gulf of
Alaska and continue to interact with the high pressure area in the
Arctic. These lows will be able to transport moisture north into
the interior resulting in light snow showers on Tuesday and
Wednesday over the Eastern and Central Interior. The trend is
slowly coming down with the ECMWF EFI keeping the highlight for
areas of snow in the Yukon. This is a change from the last few
runs when it was showing a more significant event in the Eastern
Interior.

As stated above blizzard conditions continue from Point Hope to
Point Lay with conditions improving by Wednesday. For northeast
Alaska between Nuiqsut and Kaktovik blizzard conditions appear to
develop on Tuesday and continue through Thursday as east-northeast
winds strengthen due to the Arctic high pressure building up again
around mid-week. This will also lead to stronger winds over the
Brooks Range and over high elevation areas in the Central
Interior, including areas near the Dalton Highway, where gusty
east to northeast winds are possible with a 40-70% chance of gusts
greater than 35 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

Crespo/MacKay