Blizzard Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

196 
WWAK41 PAFG 121719
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
819 AM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

AKZ805-130100-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260113T1800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including the cities of Kaktovik, Point Thomson, and Flaxman
Island
819 AM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Visibility at or below 1/4 mile. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, 
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with 
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are 
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

273 
WWAK41 PAFG 122317
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
217 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

AKZ805-130800-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260113T1800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including the cities of Flaxman Island, Kaktovik, and Point
Thomson
217 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions and west wind gusts up to 40 mph. 

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Visibility at or below 1/4 mile. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, 
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with 
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are 
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

544 
WWAK41 PAFG 130725
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1025 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

AKZ805-131800-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0004.260113T0725Z-260113T1800Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including the cities of Kaktovik, Flaxman Island, and Point
Thomson
1025 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow may cause visibility to drop to one half mile 
  or less at times. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
526 AM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow is waning in the eastern Interior this morning as the
associated cloud deck is pushed east. Temperatures will plummet as
the skies clear, with the current boundary being a line of clouds
stretching from McKinley Park to Fort Yukon. Temperatures west of
that line are already in the 20s to 40s below and the rest of the
Interior will soon join them. Clear and cold conditions persist
until a system comes in from the southeast on Tuesday
night/Wednesday, with a chance for bitterly cold conditions in
parts of the Western Interior Tuesday night. Cold Weather
Advisories remain in effect for the Brooks Range Passes and the
eastern Arctic Coast with wind chills in the 55 to 65 below zero
range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow showers looking to continue across the eastern
  Interior throughout the day, with additional snowfall totals
  around 1".

- The southern half of Isabel Pass will continue to see periods of
  snow through at least Wednesday with several additional inches
  possible.

- Skies begin to clear north of the Alaska Range this morning
  from west to east with some stratus lingering in valleys.
  Temperatures (where clear) drop into the 30s and 40s below zero.
	- Temperatures above 1000ft will be in the teens and 20s below zero.
	- Cold weather persists through Tuesday afternoon.

- Tuesday evening, clouds move back into the Eastern Interior with
  a chance for light snow Tuesday night, potentially as far west
  as Fairbanks/Nenana by Wednesday morning.
	- Light snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches, highest amounts
   from the Yukon-Tanana Uplands to Chalkyitsik.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cold and mostly clear, temperatures will be well below normal
  this week with a cooling trend early in the week.
	- Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and 40s below zero
   in Interior Valleys with teens and 20s below zero along the
   coast by Tuesday.
	- Highest chances for clouds will be along the coast, especially
   Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a low drops south from the
   Arctic with some moisture, clouds and a few flurries.

- Pressure gradient may increase slightly, allowing winds to
  increase. This may bring wind chill values in the minus 50s at
  times. Best chance for this will be Tuesday afternoon into early
  Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Low-lying clouds are spread across a good portion of the North
  Slope, allowing for scattered snow showers. Clouds will continue
  to linger for a good portion of the week as a bulk of the snow
  showers move out to the NE.

- West/Southwest winds will gradually increase over the NE Arctic
  coast today reaching speeds between 15 and 20 mph. Winds will
  remain elevated through later portions of the week.
	- This will continue to allow for potentially hazardous wind
   chill temperatures at times.

- Very cold weather persists this week with most temperatures well
  into the 20s and 30s below today, and many locations in the 40s
  below zero by Tuesday.
	- Cold Weather Advisories have been issued for much of the
   eastern half of the North Slope/Brooks Range as temperatures
   refuse to moderate and winds remain breezy.
	- Wind chills may be as low as 70 below zero at times.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 496 dam 500 mb low over the interior is being scooped up by
another 489 dam low over the arctic coast which looks to settle over
the North Slope tonight, directing cold, dry, arctic air over the
North Slope and Interior. This air mass sits over Northern Alaska
Monday and Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures hover in the 25 to 30 below
zero Celsius range, which, along with clear skies will support
temperatures in the 30s, 40s and potentially 50s below. The low over
the Interior becomes a stretched  band of vorticity across the state
extending from Bristol Bay to Kaktovik. This vorticity will help
promote cloud cover and light snow showers along its southern edge,
a corridor from Eagle to Isabel Pass. Upslope flow along the south
side of the Alaska Range will result in an extended period of light
snow through the middle of the week.

On Tuesday night into Wednesday, a shortwave in the north Pacific
develops into a 508 dam low moving into the Gulf of Alaska before
ejecting northeast into Canada. That system will bring cloud cover
and more widespread snow to the southeast Interior. The low could
also cause hazardous wind chills in areas like McGrath, Galena, and
Tanana as even light winds will have a large impact with such
bitterly cold temperatures. Models are uncertain as to how far the
clouds get into the Western Interior which would have a siginifcant
impact on those temperatures. The GFS is the outlier, with the edge
of the cloud deck over Galena, but the NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF
models are more reserved, keeping the clouds ate the line between
Tanana and McGrath or farther back.

After the middle of the week, we are keeping an eye on a 980mb low
in the Pacific which is pulling moisture up from 20N towards Alaska
and a ridge over the West Coast and Alaskan Panhandle providing
generally southerly flow. The details are still being ironed out
but these ingredients mean potential for chinooking and widespread
mixed precipitation in the Interior.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A series of fronts look to be tracking across majority of the
state as an upper-level low continues to deepen and move NW
across the Aleutians. Associated with this is a system that will
swing across the state bringing widespread snowfall. Models are
also hinting at a potential chinooking pattern over the Alaska
Range which may bring an end to the cold snap. The Alaska Range
passes will see an increase in winds and additional snowfall,
which may result in potential blizzard conditions Thursday night
through Saturday.

Global models are in relatively good agreement with the
positioning through Thursday night. Thereafter, more disagreement
evolves as some models have extra embedded shortwaves that track
across the state with the southwest flow that sets up. To add on,
the EC brings the low over the Aleutians closer to the coast which
would allow for a better chinooking setup over the Alaska Range
and an abundance of snowfall across the Interior. The GFS is
showing a much different solution with a more organized and
stronger surface low coming across the Aleutians on Friday. If
this were to pan out, warmer temperatures may be brought up with
it and create a chance for mixed precipitation across the Western
Interior. The Canadian is slightly weaker with the surface low,
but also shows a similar solution to GFS.

At this time confidence remains low for the snow amounts across
the Alaska Range, the positioning of the upper-level low, and the
strength/organization of the corresponding surface low. With many
solutions in place, this will be continuously monitored to see if
models are able to come into better agreement.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-805-850-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

Troyke/Twombly