Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 AM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this morning
for Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley and central/southern Susitna
Valley. Snow rates of up to an inch an hour are possible this
morning that may inconvenience the morning commute. Temperatures
are in the single digits to low teens today, meaning snow will be
dry and easily transportable, which may lead to difficult driving
conditions as snow is lofted behind vehicles. Snow is expected to
taper off later this afternoon. Thompson Pass is expected to be
gusty today, coupled with periods of heavy falling snow is likely
to produce blowing snow. Snow will continue along the north Gulf
coast today.

Thursday is the start of the big event of the week. An atmospheric
river and a low will move up into Alaska. Much warmer air will
arrive with these features. There have been varied solutions
across the models, but the overall consensus is hinting at
precipitation spreading across nearly the entirety of
Southcentral and temperatures near to above freezing Thursday and
Friday. The plume of heavy precipitation is making its way
directly from the Gulf rather quickly. There will be a transition
period as temperatures warm where precipitation switches from snow
to freezing rain/ice/sleet along the Kenai Peninsula and possibly
Anchorage Thursday morning. There is currently a Winter Weather
Watch out for the Kenai Peninsula as well as the Portage/Girdwood
area, and one may be issued for Anchorage as certainty grows.
Eventually, surface temperatures may rise above freezing at the
surface, allowing for precipitation to become either a mix of rain
and snow or just rain. The threat does not end with this as rain
falling onto frozen surfaces could create slick conditions.
Rain/snow is possible into the Copper River Basin as well, as far
north as Gulkana, and the Susitna Valley to Talkeetna. Further
north areas along the Alaska range will hover near freezing but
are currently expected to remain just below, allowing for mostly
snow. Again, there is much uncertainty with this event and the
forecast will continue to evolve with many changes likely as
details become more clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday night)...

Key Messages:

* Frigid wind chills are gradually warming as clouds move in. Cold
  Weather Advisories have been canceled for all but Kuskokwim
  Delta, Western Capes, and Kuskokwim Valley West.

* A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Aleutian
  chain from Adak to Atka for snow and blowing snow Wednesday
  morning through Thursday morning.

* Much of Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula is now under a
  Winter Storm Watch beginning late tonight/early tomorrow morning
  as an atmospheric river brings abundant moisture and warmer air
  to the Mainland. Significant weather impacts look increasingly
  likely and range from heavy snow to blowing snow to freezing
  rain/ice accumulation.

Discussion:

A high amplitude pattern is in place with a blocking ridge over
far eastern Russia, an upper low over the Beaufort Sea with a
trough extending southwestward across the heart of the Bering Sea,
and a downstream ridge along the west coast of CONUS and British
Columbia.

A compact surface low is on track to impact the central
Aleutians, including Adak and Atka, later today. Model spread
remains fairly large on the exact track of this low and areas
most likely to see the strongest winds and heaviest snow as the
low crosses the Aleutian Chain and into the North Pacific through
tonight. Right now it looks like Adak will see some of the
strongest winds while Atka will see some of the heaviest snow.
While confidence is high in periods of snow and blowing snow with
low visibility, confidence in where heaviest snow and strongest
winds are located at any given time is low.

The Bering trough will dig all the way south into the North
Pacific, with multiple short-waves phasing and consolidating into
a single trough tonight. Meanwhile, a ridge will rapidly amplify
to the east from the Northeast Pacific to mainland Alaska. The
consolidated trough will then lift northward up the west side of
the ridge and bring impactful weather to southern AK Thursday
through Friday. Models have slowly been coming into better
agreement, increasing our forecast confidence enough to issue a
Winter Storm Watch.

Since yesterday, models have been trending further north and west
with the low, leading to a trend towards stronger winds and
increasing warm air advection into the Mainland. This has
increased the risk of blowing snow on the cold side of the first
surface low. As such, we're monitoring the potential for
visibility reductions in blowing snow for Kuskokwim Delta and the
western portion of Kuskokwim Valley, as well as Southern Alaska
Peninsula. It's not out of the question that Kuskokwim Delta and
the Northern Bristol Bay coast, where north to northeast winds
will be strongest, may see blizzard conditions as well.

Additionally, when precipitation types will transition (and
therefore, how much precipitation falls as snow versus freezing
rain versus plain rain) remains uncertain. Models have been
trending towards warmer surface temperatures, especially as the
latest low track will likely spur easterly winds off Kamishak Bay
and into the Bristol Bay interior. This means that parts of
Bristol Bay could see precipitation change completely over to
rain. Many questions remain regarding the forecast for Thursday
into midday Friday. Still, confidence is fairly high that this
will be a wet system, so no matter what form precipitation takes,
expect it to be wet, messy, and likely impactful after the recent
spell of colder and drier conditions.

Looking ahead to Friday, another low barrels north across the
Aleutian Islands and the Eastern Bering Sea, and could bring a
quick return to active weather after tomorrow's storm moves out of
the area.

-SEB/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast begins with an amplified pattern over much
of Alaska. A broad trough will be in place over the central
Bering on Friday with strong southerly flow downstream of the
trough, extending from the North Pacific up into Southcentral
Alaska. Potential impacts from this atmospheric river will entail
gusty winds into the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound,
widespread rain showers into the coast, heavy snow at higher
elevations, and a significant warm up in temperatures across all
of Southcentral. The amplified pattern begins to break down on
Saturday with a ridge of high pressure building over the eastern
Bering and Southwest Alaska. A deepening trough west of the
Aleutians will serve to reinforce downstream ridging through the
end of the long term period early next week.

Models continue to exhibit small differences with the overall
strength and track of the low Thursday into Friday, and there is
still potential for changes to the forecast over the next 48
hours. However, overall confidence is increasing that the
strongest winds will occur offshore of the Southcentral Coast from
Kayak Island into Prince William Sound. Gales with gusts to 50+
knots are currently forecast. If the low on Thursday takes a track
further north, the potential would increase for high winds
through the Eastern Turnagain Arm lower elevations. Currently, the
highest inland winds are forecast to remain over the mountains.

One last area of concern will be across the Central Aleutians
early on Friday. A vigorous area of low pressure is progged to
lift into the region with the potential for hurricane force gusts.
This low is followed up with a large frontal system into the
western Bering and Aleutians Sunday into Monday.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow and MVFR conditions will persist through much of the
morning and early afternoon hours. IFR conditions, especially IFR
visibilities, are possible within pockets of heavier snow showers.
VFR conditions look to return during the afternoon hours after
the front and precipitation lift northward out of the area and
drier air works in from the south. Despite ceilings returning to
VFR, expect ceilings to remain at or a little below 5000 feet as
up-inlet flow continues aloft. Light snow returns for Thursday
morning. However, due to strengthening southeasterly flow aloft,
ceilings should be able to maintain low-end VFR levels. MVFR
visibility is a possibility depending on if heavier snow showers
are able to fully make it over the Chugach Range.

Light north to northeast winds overnight have turned southerly to
south-southwesterly this morning These southerly winds will be
gusty at times today, especially late morning and early afternoon
where winds could gust between 20 to 25 kts. Winds turn back to
the north this evening and overnight and diminish to less than 10
kts.

As a front lifts northward through the Gulf tonight through
Thursday morning, southeasterly winds aloft will strengthen as
will northerly winds at the surface as surface flow remains down-
inlet. There is the possibility of low-level wind shear towards
the end of the TAF period. However, there is uncertainty to the
height of when the strong southeasterlies commence. The strong
down-inlet flow may extend farther up into the atmosphere keep
southeasterly winds higher than 2000 feet. This will be something
to watch and keep an eye on as the forecast progresses.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1056 AM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     Snow             5 E Valdez              61.11N 146.22W
01/14/2026  M2.9 Inch        Chugach            AK   Public

            4.7 inches fell through 0948 this morning.
            An additional 2.9 inches of snow fell
            between 0948 and 1038.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1057 AM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 AM     Snow             1 NE Anchorage (Oceanvi 61.11N 149.86W
01/14/2026  M1.0 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            1 inch of snow since yesterday.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1059 AM AKST Wed Jan 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     Snow             Wasilla                 61.58N 149.45W
01/14/2026  U6.0 Inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

            Report of 6 inches had fallen between 0630
            through 1000 and snow is still falling.
            Visibility around one half mile or less.
            Time and location is estimated.

&&