Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Upper level high pressure continues to be the status quo for the
short term for Southcentral Alaska. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued for the Cook Inlet region and valley locations for
the likelihood of fog to redevelop once again overnight tonight
and affect the morning commute. Without any big synoptic player to
erode the inversion, radiational cooling during the overnight
hours will keep the chance of fog around for the next couple of
mornings. Once again, valley locations will generally be cooler
for the next couple of nights than higher elevations due to the
low to mid level inversion in place.

By the start of the weekend, a North Pacific low makes its way
into the far western Gulf and turns northwestward towards the
Alaska Peninsula, bringing rain back to the forecast to Kodiak
Island. This low will likely be of lower impact to the area, but
its upper low component will help to cut into the ridge and weaken
its influence over the area. The attendant front, however, will
make its way northward across the western Gulf through the end of
Saturday.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...

The high amplitude blocking ridge remains over the Pacific
Northwest and up across the Gulf of Alaska into mainland Alaska.
This ridge is keeping the storm track in the western Bering Sea
and will do so through Friday. By Saturday, the orientation of
the ridge will shift a little to allow more southeasterly flow
aloft into Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea regions.

The sensible weather resulting from this pattern will be little
changed through Friday with areas of fog and lower stratus
persisting over Southwest Alaska and the central and eastern
Bering Sea. A few mid-level clouds will allow intrude into
southwest Alaska at times, but there is not any precipitation
expected out of these clouds. That is probably a good thing as the
strong inversion is keeping a freezing rain profile for much of
Southwest Alaska the next few days. however, that should have no
impact since there is not any precipitation expected.

The pattern shifts a little on Saturday with more southeasterly
flow aloft. This will bring in more warming aloft and a better
chance for precipitation due to some upper level waves trying to
move from Kodiak toward the Bristol Bay region on Saturday. At
this time, it looks like the surface temperatures along the Alaska
Peninsula and eastern Bristol Bay will warm up enough by Saturday
to create rain as the dominant precipitation type. However, there
is still a chance for some freezing rain at that time. The
farther northwest one goes, the chance of precipitation
decreases, but the cold air at the surface will remain colder
resulting in a better chance of freezing rain if precipitation
does occur. hopefully, this can get more refined as we head toward
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

The persistent pattern of upper level troughing over Kamchatka
and the western Bering Sea looks to continue through the rest of
the weekend and likely through early next week. Several shortwaves
and accompanying surface lows will lift in succession from the
North Pacific and across the western Bering, keeping windy and wet
weather conditions through the Western and Central Aleutians.
Weak surface lows as far east as the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
will remain possible.

The upper level ridge that has been comfortably sitting over
Mainland Alaska starts to show signs of flattening as an Arctic
low over the Yukon and Northwest Territories sinks into northern
Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. Offshore, easterly flow at the
surface seems likely. Confidence decreases significantly by
midweek, but guidance points toward the Arctic low marching west
and phasing with the main trough over the Bering Sea. The high
pressure ridge that was flattening, would begin to rebuild across
southern Alaska with upper level southerly flow dominating the
Mainland. Embedded surface lows could make its way into
Southcentral, but forecast confidence remains low for the
trajectory of each of the surface lows.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...From this evening through tomorrow morning, IFR
visibilities are likely, with the potential for LIFR visibilities
in dense fog similar to what was seen this morning. While there is
uncertainty with how low visibility will drop and how long fog
will persist, the weather pattern remains much the same as this
morning, which means we will likely see another round of dense
fog.

The setup will remain conducive for low stratus and fog through
at least the end of the week due to narrow dewpoint depressions
near the surface, light and variable winds, and the strong
inversion remaining overhead.

&&