Small Craft Advisory 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKST Mon Jan 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Weather continues to stay relatively quiet for Southcentral
Alaska for the short term. A weak shortwave rotating through the
ridge axis is giving Kodiak Island a bit of rain and dense fog
this afternoon. Surface high pressure has skirted eastward into
Canada, which has given some of the region, especially the Cook
Inlet, a light southwesterly wind. An upper ridge continues to
anchor itself over the region, resulting in a stout low to mid
level inversion. This will allow valley locations to remain colder
tonight than other locations with elevation. For example, the
expectation is the Anchorage Hillside will stay several degrees
warmer tonight than the Anchorage Bowl. The inversion also means
very little mixing this evening and overnight, setting the stage
for the chance of fog to work its way northward up the Cook Inlet
and across Anchorage. Again, because of warmer air aloft, it may
be difficult to scatter some of the fog out of the area once it
establishes itself. Hi-res guidance also has areas of fog re-
developing across the western Prince William Sound and for the
Copper River Basin for Tuesday morning. Upper level ridging and
surface high pressure will continue to hold on through mid week,
giving the Cook Inlet more chances of fog, and the forecast
challenge will remain how far up the Inlet the fog will drift. The
rest of the short term outlook looks dry with surface
temperatures becoming increasingly colder as we move into mid to
late week.

-AM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)...

KEY MESSAGE:

Southeasterly flow continues through Thursday across Southwest
Alaska and the Aleutians with light precipitation likely for
higher terrain along the southwest coast into Tuesday. Building
high pressure for the eastern Bering and Southwest mainland
persists through Thursday, while several lows lift across the
western Bering.

Discussion:

Dry conditions are expected across most of the southwestern
mainland while a weak disturbance lifts across the Pribilof
Islands bringing increased wind and a slight chance for rain this
afternoon. The southern AKPEN, such as Chignik and Sand Point
will continue to see showery and overcast conditions this
afternoon. Moisture will continue to Nunivak Island, Nelson
Island, and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast through the overnight hours.
Any precipitation that falls will be a very light wintry mix as
temperatures aloft are marginally cool and warming with time. The
best chance for light freezing rain/snow mix is across
Nunivak/Nelson Islands overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.
Upslope flow along the Kilbuck and Ahklun mountains could also
help to ring out moisture in the form of a light wintry mix along
the eastern facing slopes of the mountains. The population centers
such as Dillingham, Togiak, Manokotak, and Aleknagik look to
remain just above freezing with mostly rain and a few flurries
mixing in at times. Conditions become drier across the Southwest
mainland as high pressure builds Wednesday.

Farther out west, a North Pacific low continues to lift northward
into the Bering Sea tonight. While the center of rotation passes
directly over Adak, the main part of the front will pass east of
Adak and Atka, with the highest winds passing just east of Atka.
Gusty southerly winds up to storm-force and rain peak early
Tuesday morning before winds shift to southwesterly and decrease
as the low passes. Late Tuesday morning the front passes west of
the Pribilof Islands, where wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour
will be possible.

A brief lull in conditions will be interrupted by another front
from a North Pacific low west of Attu with storm-force winds
passing between Shemya and Adak Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon. This low keeps a northward track before turning west
into the Russian mainland Thursday morning. The pattern continues
with yet another front, which sets up to pass between Kiska and
Atka by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Confidence remains high for high pressure to persist across the
state into the weekend. While much of the mainland will experience
dry and quiet weather, there continues to be a strong signal for
persistent upper level troughing over Kamchatka and the Western
Bering Sea through the period. Several shortwaves and accompanying
surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and into the
western Bering, keeping unsettled and active weather mainly
confined to the Western and Central Aleutians. Each wave will move
in succession through the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing
multiple rounds of potentially storm force winds and precipitation
through the weekend into early next week.

The upper level ridge looks to retreat to the northwest towards
eastern Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend.
This leads to a shift in the storm track and disturbances lifting
out of the North Pacific and into the Gulf, bringing more active
weather across the AKPen and coastal Southcentral. Heading into
early next week, model spread begins to grow but ensemble means
remain consistent in a trough digging south across the interior,
bringing increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures
across inland Southcentral locations.

JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light, mostly northerly, winds will persist through Tuesday.
Conditions will be favorable for low stratus or fog development
tonight as high pressure builds over the region with a strong
inversion aloft.

&&