Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The system that drenched Southcentral over the last 36 hours is
rapidly pushing through the area with clearing skies and soon to
be diminishing winds. Temperatures will drop quickly tonight as
the winds die down, result in a rapid refreeze of area roadways
that got slushy or wet throughout the day today. For Saturday, a
weak low will move into the Alaska Peninsula with its upper level
shortwave moving through Southcentral, mainly the western portions
and Sound. Mostly rain is expected in the Sound with some light
snow possible in the lee-side areas of the western Kenai, and
western Susitna Valley. Anchorage and the Mat Valley may get a
dusting but it will need to compete with some downslope drying.
Another weak shortwave will push through on Sunday for a possible
light precipitation event, with the profile more supportive of
freezing rain/drizzle, though not any significant amounts. By
Monday a warm ridge will begin to set up over the state, leading
to some much needed quiet weather.

CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

A negatively tilted upper level trough extends from the Western
Aleutians and eastward across Southwest Alaska. Negative vorticity
advection in the wake of the trough has really cleared out
Southwest Alaska and what is left of the precipitation is moving
northward out of the region. The last of the cold air advection
wrapping around the backside of the low that produced a winter
storm across Southwest Alaska is letting up as winds are turning
more southerly once again out ahead of the next storm system at
hand. IR satellite this afternoon shows a ~980 mb low east of Atka
with a baroclinic zone from Nikolski southward across the North
Pacific along with a warm front that has made its way to the
Pribilof Islands. This front is already bringing snow, low
visibilities, and gusty winds to Saint Paul and Saint George.

Aloft, the low/trough over the Western Aleutians begins to
further consolidate as it starts to retrograde to the north or
even northwest. Difluent flow quickly takes its place Sunday
morning over the Central Aleutians out ahead of yet another storm
system, with a loosely organized shortwave rotating through the
main upper level flow. The global models do show that this low
will be somewhat deeper than the first, and are in solid agreement
as far as placement and timing as it interacts with the Western
Aleutians Monday morning. The storm parade does not end there, as
another system is poised to move northward from the North Pacific
starting Monday afternoon.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. Seasonable and
relatively quieter weather seems likely. A few surface lows may
make it into the Gulf of Alaska, but should remain confined to the
immediate coastline and potentially Kodiak Island. Similar is
possible for the Alaska Peninsula and southwestern coast. Farther
west though, low pressure will prevail with embedded surface lows
lifting north into the Bering Sea. Gale to storm force winds
possible. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians
and Bering Sea, keeping precipitation and winds in the Bering Sea
for most of next week. However, the main foreseeable challenge
would be with the timing of each low that lifts north across the
area.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The front has moved through the Anchorage area turning the
gusty winds to the south. These winds should diminish through the
evening and then turn to the north. Conditions should remain VFR,
but there is a chance that if the winds become calm it could lead
to some fog and or low stratus late tonight and into tomorrow
morning.

&&