Small Craft Advisory 490, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A shortwave trough is in the process of crossing over the Alaska
Range this morning as a weakening cold front at the surface also
attempts to cross over the mountains into the Susitna Valley. A
band of light rain has already filled in on the Kenai radar this
morning, and it looks a little more robust than what most model
solutions were projecting for this morning across the southern
Susitna Valley and northern Cook Inlet. It will be interesting to
see whether this wetter looking trend translates east with the
front/trough into the Mat Valley, Anchorage and northern Kenai
Peninsula later this morning. In any case, much of this corridor
looks on track to see measurable rainfall as the trough digs in
towards the Chugach and Kenai Mountains through the early
afternoon. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will spread
across the Copper Basin later in the day as lift ahead of the
trough overspreads the area.

Things continue to look unsettled going towards Wednesday. It now
looks likely that a second shortwave trough trailing behind the
one coming in this morning will dive down towards the Mat-Su
Valleys and northern Cook Inlet as the initial trough begins to
stall to the east over the Copper Basin. Lingering moisture from
the recent rain coupled with cool air aloft moving in with the
secondary trough could support widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across a good portion of Southcentral on Wednesday
afternoon, mostly near the foothills of higher terrain across the
Kenai, Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains.

The pair of troughs will exit to the southeast by Thursday, but
there will likely be enough lingering instability to support
afternoon showers along the mountains once again. Temperatures
will remain seasonable, perhaps pushing past 70 for a few spots
in the afternoon across the Mat-Su Valleys.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Currently, an Arctic trough continues to dig across Southwest
Alaska bringing cooler and drier air across the area. Lingering
showers across the Western Alaska Range will taper off by this
afternoon and evening. Aside from the cloudy and showery
conditions along the Western Alaska Range, expect a mostly dry and
quiet day across Southwest. Ridging across the Bering Sea begins
to nudge over Mainland Southwest beginning Wednesday morning and
lasting into Thursday. This will help to direct low stratus back
in over the area with westerly flow off of the Bering. The
forecast challenge will undoubtedly be monitoring and tracking any
fog formation and where low stratus persists the longest and how
far inland it makes it.

A weak shortwave moves onshore from the Bering on Thursday. This
feature looks to kick off some showers across the southwestern
interior Thursday afternoon and evening. There could be enough
instability around for a few lightning strikes Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially along the eastern slopes of the
Kuskokwim/Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains and along the Western Alaska
Range. This setup will be something to monitor as well as it looks
similar to the Sunday afternoon/evening setup a few days ago. On
Friday, flow begins to switch to easterly and offshore ahead of a
lifting North Pacific low towards the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN).

Farther out west, ridging dominates most of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Chain this morning. Low stratus, fog, and misty
conditions, therefore, also continue to dominate. This will
continue to be the case through much of the short-term forecast.
The ridge axis does begin to shift east on Wednesday which opens
the door for a front associated with a low pressure system,
located just south of Kamchatka, to move east into the western
Bering Sea and Western Aleutians. The gale-force front will
deliver gusty southeast winds to Shemya along with a round of rain
Wednesday and Thursday. Due to the strength of the Bering ridge,
now in the eastern Bering on Thursday, the low pressure and front
affecting the Western Aleutians will not be able to make anymore
eastern progress. Therefore, Adak/Atka will remain mostly dry,
albeit breezy from the southeast Wednesday evening through
Thursday evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the
front and strong high pressure.

Another North Pacific low lifts towards the AKPEN for Friday.
There is still some uncertainty on the strength of the frontal
system, timing/speed of the front and associated precipitation.
Stay tuned for forecast updates regarding this low for Friday and
a switch towards more active weather across Mainland Southwest and
the AKPEN for this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

On Friday, A weak Gulf low will generate showers to Southcentral
Alaska and A high over the Kusko Delta will bring fair weather to
Southwest as well as the Alaska Peninsula. Both systems will
dissipate by the afternoon. A trough over the Bering will bring
showers to the Aleutians Friday through Monday.

An upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly
stationary through Sunday and then move eastward by Monday. This
is important as it blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into
the eastern Gulf. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from
the ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will
enhance southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the
northern and western Gulf coast. This is expected to bring
precipitation to Southcentral Alaska, Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak
Island. There is strong model confidence that there will be
periods of heavy rain for Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island
Saturday into Sunday.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF
period. Rain moving in ahead of a frontal boundary is still
expected to move into the terminal over the next several hours
through about midday. Some lowering of ceilings is likely as the
band of rain pushes through, but it's looking a bit less likely
for them to drop into MVFR range. Any lower level clouds should
scatter out behind the frontal passage this afternoon. Winds will
vary throughout the day, but will remain less than 10 kts.

&&