Small Craft Advisory 459, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT Sun May 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

High pressure has built in across Southcentral between
unseasonably strong lows, one located south of the Gulf of
Alaska, and the other south of the Aleutian Island Chain. The
first low will continue eastbound toward the southern tip of
Haida Gwaii through Monday morning then turn south toward the
Washington and Oregon coast. The second low crosses the island
chain into the Bering on Monday morning, and reaches the Southwest
mainland by Tuesday morning.

Between these systems, a pressure ridge will continue to build
over Southcentral and the Gulf. Warmer, drier conditions are
expected for most of Southcentral through early Monday afternoon,
before the front of the Bering low sweeps across the Gulf and into
Southcentral, bringing another round of wind and modest
precipitation by Tuesday morning for the Gulf coastal areas.
Easterly flow will keep most of the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl,
and Mat Valley dry due to downsloping, though shower activity
will remain scattered as cells form and dissipate due to solar
heating of the surface. The highest areas of convective potential
will be over and north of the Alaska Range. Expect showers to
taper off into the evening as sunlight diminishes.

PP/ER

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Across Southwest Alaska, rain associated with an incoming frontal
system will continue to spread west to east, with the steadiest
precipitation expected tonight into Monday. Gusty winds has also
begun to develop, especially along the Alaska Peninsula where
southeasterly winds of 50 to 60 mph are likely with locally
stronger gusts up to 70 mph possible near Cold Bay. Conditions
will begin to gradually improve tomorrow as the front weakens
inland.

Across the Bering and Aleutians the strong North Pacific low
continues to track eastward. Storm-force winds from yesterday have
shifted into the eastern portions of the chain and the Pribilof
Islands, where gusty conditions persist before slowly diminishing.
Any lingering mixed precipitation or snow across the Pribilofs
will taper off by tomorrow.

As the system progresses, the low center moves over Bristol Bay
tonight into Tuesday.This will bring another round of gusty,
though weaker, winds to portions of the Aleutians and Southwest
Alaska. Showers will linger across much of the region through
tomorrow night.

By Wednesday, the low weakens and shifts farther inland, allowing
winds to ease and precipitation to become more scattered, with
gradual improvement expected across the region.

LM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST
(Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Later this week into the weekend, weak ridging begins to build into
the Interior allowing for easterly waves of showers to move
across the Copper River Basin and Matanuska- Susitna Valleys.
Quieter conditions are expected across the rest of Southcentral.
Also later this week into next weekend, a weak ridge in the Bering
Sea begins to shift eastward over Southwest Alaska resulting in
rising temperatures and increased shower activity. Signals of
continued northerly wind flow in the Western and Central Aleutians
on the backside of this eastward- moving ridge are starting to
emerge as well. As a trough forms over the Bering Sea next
weekend, a Kamchatka low moves southeastward across the Bering Sea
into the North Pacific causing showers for the Western and
Central Aleutians.

- Johnston

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the period, Some showers
may drift near the terminal through early evening, but will
diminish by late evening with loss of heating. Winds are expected
to remain under 10 kts but could see gusts up to 20 kts with any
passing shower. An approaching front will likely lead to gusty
southeasterly winds Monday evening.

&&