Small Craft Advisory 433, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKDT Sat May 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Stronger winds continue to trend for Southcentral as a Bering Sea
front moves across the Gulf of Alaska today. The front currently
situated over Kodiak Island is bringing gale force winds to the
Barren Islands and along higher terrain on Kodiak Island and the
Kenai Mountains this morning. Winds will pick up along the western
and central Chugach mountains by late morning and continue to
increase through the early afternoon. Wind gusts up to 65 mph is
expected to impact the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides
beginning this afternoon and persisting through at least early
Sunday afternoon before winds begin to taper off. Isolated gusts
to 75 mph are possible at times. Thus, a High Wind Advisory is in
effect for the Hillsides. While no Advisory is currently in effect
for the Anchorage Bowl, wind gusts 35 to 45 mph are expected.
Additional gap winds, including the Knik wind near Palmer and the
Copper River wind near Glennallen and Gulkana, as well as
Resurrection Bay and Passage Canal (especially near Whittier), are
expected to become gusty through today and Sunday morning.

Looking ahead: conditions improve from late Sunday into Monday,
as the North Pacific low is absorbed into the much larger and
weakening Bering Sea low. While Kodiak Island, Eastern KPen, and
Prince William Sound will see the bulk of their precipitation with
the front earlier in the weekend, more sheltered/interior
locations like Western KPen, Anchorage, and Mat-Su will see their
greatest precipitation chances as the showers move up-Inlet in
southwesterly flow.

KM/KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

As of 4:00am today, satellite image shows a Bering Sea low just
south of the Pribilof Islands and its front lifting slowly
northward across the Alaska Peninsula this morning. Surface
observations report southerly/southeasterly wind gusts in the
Alaska Peninsula, Western Capes and areas along the Aleutians as
high as 50 mph in addition to widespread rain showers. Through
the day today, the front will continue its northward progression
though weaken as it moves further into Southwest Alaska. Wind
gusts across the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and portions of
Southwest Alaska will range from 25 to 35 mph into this evening.
Rain showers will persist over most of the region today, too. Some
snow may mix with rain showers in the Pribilof Islands this
afternoon though no accumulation is expected. The Bering low
remains stationary overnight into late Sunday morning allowing for
continued rain showers and breezy conditions. Through Sunday
afternoon and evening, the Bering low moves east of the Pribilof
Islands. A North Pacific low moves toward the Alaska Peninsula
bringing another round of rain and southerly winds to Southwest
Alaska, portions of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the
Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next
week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much
of southern Alaska.

Within the larger-scale cyclonic flow, a series of shortwaves
will continue to rotate northward into southern Alaska through
early next week. Winds are expected to increase again across the
western and northern Gulf. The eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound look to see another round of heavier precipitation
on Tuesday, while lighter but more widespread precipitation
spreads across the remainder of the northern Gulf coast and into
Southwest Alaska.

By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea
pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka,
though model guidance remains split on its track. The
European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the
Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the
Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled
conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as
this system and its associated front progress eastward through
Friday.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF package.
Strong southeasterly winds expected to begin picking up this
morning as a frontal system approached from the west. Sustained
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 45 mph are possible late
morning/early afternoon through tonight. Winds are then expected
to quickly turn northerly and diminish as the southeasterly winds
coming out of Turnagain Arm are pulled down Cook Inlet through
Sunday. This expected wind shift will likely coincide with a
period of continued gusty southeasterly winds aloft over the
Anchorage Hillside, resulting in the potential for LLWS late
tonight into early Sunday morning before the winds aloft weaken
and become more northeasterly.

-TM

&&