Small Craft Advisory 405, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Thu May 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A cold and relatively deep upper level trough over central Alaska
will drift slowly south into Southwest Alaska over the forecast
period while slowly expanding in area. Meanwhile, easterly low
level flow is already building north of a broad low in the north
Pacific that will move into the Gulf over the weekend. For the
forecast expect more of the same, areas of light rain showers
today with gap winds continuing through the Knik and Turnagain
Arms as well as the Copper Valley. Over the weekend the gap winds
will for the most part let up as the coastal ridge weakens and
the gradient goes back down the Inlet. For precipitation, the Gulf
system has trended farther to the north and west, meaning higher
chances for rain throughout Southcentral Saturday and then again
on Sunday when a different shortwave moves in from the southwest.
All in all expect more dreary, wet and breezy "fall" weather to
continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

The forecast remains on track with an upper-level low currently
over the Middle Yukon Valley in the vicinity of Galena. This low
will continue to dig south the rest of tonight and into Friday
when it moves into the Kuskokwim Valley. This system will be
accompanied by cold air aloft and an unstable airmass. Most
showery activity will remain along the Western Alaska Range the
rest of today. Shower coverage looks to expand for Friday to
include the interior Bristol Bay mountain ranges and along the
Kuskokwim Mountains as well. For Saturday, a North Pacific low
will lift into Gulf of Alaska. This low will interact with the
upper-level low over the Kuskokwim Valley and help to produce a
deformation precipitation band over Saturday morning. As the
upper-level low over the Kuskokwim Valley drifts west to the
Kuskokwim Delta the rest of the day Saturday, this deformation
band will also drift west into interior Southwest. Precipitation
intensity within this bad Saturday evening through Sunday morning
could be enough to bring cold air aloft down to the surface.
Therefore, light snow is possible from Sleetmute to Iliamna
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Precipitation will
continue to linger along the interior through Sunday.

Farther out west, an upper-level low, currently across Kamchatka,
extends a front across the western Bering and the Western
Aleutians. This trough is helping to keep showers going across
Adak and Atka. The frontal boundary over Adak and Atka will
continue to decay through Saturday morning as showers will begin
to taper off by then. A ridge over the northern Bering extending
into the central Bering will continue to weaken and break down
through Saturday as it retreats to Siberia. This will open the
door for a more progressive pattern across the Bering as a low
just south of Kamchatka Saturday afternoon sends its front to the
western Bering and Western Aleutians by Saturday evening. This
front does not look overly strong with patchy low-end gales likely
along the western Bering and Western Aleutian Chain. Moderate
rain will accompany this front as it moves over Shemya. This front
then moves to and spreads light rain over Adak/Atka by Sunday
morning as it continues to weaken. The front and associated light
rain eventually moves to Nikolski/Unalaska by Sunday evening.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast. A strong front
pushes through the Aleutian Islands Monday, attached to an
Aleutian low. This progresses eastward to the AK Pen by Tuesday
afternoon, Kodiak Island Wednesday night, then reaching the Gulf
by Thursday. Periods of wind and rain will be generated along the
path of the low, including the Northern Gulf Coast.

Another Aleutian low, not as strong as the previous one, inters
the region Wednesday afternoon. There is significant disagreement
on the track of the low. However, there is an upper level low over
the Western Aleutians that will influence the surface low to take
a more northerly track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light rain showers will linger through this evening. Gusty
southerly winds will continue through this afternoon before
weakening. Winds will flip to northerly later Friday morning. VFR
conditions expected.

&&