Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Afternoon radar shows a continuation of showers lifting into the
northern Gulf coast as an upper low roughly 260 nm south of
Middleton Island pushes northward through this evening. This
precipitation is falling predominantly as rain as southeasterly
flow brings warmer temperatures into the area. Meanwhile, a broad
trough axis remains almost stationary over Southcentral, extending
from north to south from Talkeetna to Anchorage and into the
Kenai Peninsula. A band of moderate to heavy precipitation is
falling within this axis, with snow impacting the MatSu,
Anchorage, and Western Kenai Peninsula regions. Winter weather
advisories remain in effect through Sunday morning for the MatSu
Valleys and Hatcher Pass, as well as for Anchorage and the Eastern
Turnagain Arm, including Portage and Whittier. Forecast snow
amounts through tomorrow morning will range from 4 to 8 inches
across the advisories with the exception of 10 to 18 inches up
into the Susitna Valley. The lone winter storm warning is in
effect for Seward through 9pm this evening, where upwards of 4 to
6 inches of total snowfall will be possible. Warmer temperatures
into Resurrection Bay have seen rain mix in with snow at times for
Seward, which could cut into total snow amounts.

Overall conditions improve on Sunday as the trough axis weakens
and shifts northeastward, and the northward moving Gulf low lifts
into the ALCAN border and dissipates. Precipitation region-wide
will taper off in coverage from west to east, with Eastern Prince
William Sound potentially hanging onto light showers into the
early afternoon hours. The next Gulf low and front arrive Tuesday
with another shot of precipitation to lift into the Southcentral
coast and potential snow for the interior.

BL

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Overall, the west is quieting down, for now. At the surface,
pressure gradient is relaxing across the Bering as low pressure
moves farther southward across the North Pacific as an arctic high
remains situated across Eastern Russia. Aloft, two separate upper
lows/troughs - one digging south of the Central Aleutians and
another working eastward over mainland Alaska - continues to usher
in cold air advection across the region. This flow has resulted
in a swath of small craft and gale force winds for much of the
Bering, along with ocean effect snow showers for places like Dutch
Harbor. As both of these features move farther away from the
region, the expectation is for winds to decrease over the short
term as the region loses influence from the upper level support.
The cold air advection has also been funneling through some
favored bays and passes, particularly for the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula. The Pribilof Islands have been seeing some
areas of blowing snow today, but visibilities have been
consistently remained above 1 statute mile, and that is expected
to improve as the evening wears on. Southwest Alaska will continue
to remain colder than average for the remainder of the short
term.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The extended forecast is marked with a fair bit of uncertainty in
regards to low tracks and intensity. For Southcentral, Wednesday
starts with a front moving inland in the North Gulf. With cold
air in place, precipitation is expected to be in the form of snow.
Gusty winds are also expected, but the strength of these winds is
uncertain. Thursday has a large fetch of moisture rise into the
Gulf of Alaska from the South. Warm air advection will occur as
well as gusty winds. The warmer air means that precipitation types
could possibly change to rain further inland. Again, there is
uncertainty with this event and depending on how the atmospheric
river develops, more or less impacts could be seen. This event may
continue into Friday with more precipitation and winds expected.
Saturday for Southcentral has winds calming down with a potential
for continued precipitation of some kind.

Southwest Alaska for the long term starts off with continued snow
showers in the Bering due to another push of cold air advection.
Weaker shortwaves will allow for some small craft winds in the
Bering as well. Thursday will be similar except for the Southwest
Mainland receiving precipitation from a potential North Pacific
Low. If this occurs, warm air advection may transition snow to
rain. The pattern becomes more active for Southwest Alaska after
this with lows possibly moving into the Bering and causing gusty
winds and precipitation. As before, many of these scenarios are
quite uncertain at this point and details will be made more clear
in the coming days.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow will be heaviest with lowest visibilities this evening
with lesser accumulations after midnight. The biggest question is
if the light snowfall will end in the morning or linger through
the day Sunday.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1046 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Russian Jack 61.20N 149.79W
01/10/2026  M4.3 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            NWS employee measured 4.3 inches of snow at
            residence.

&&

DAN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1047 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Snow             1 E Anchorage (Taku/Cam 61.16N 149.86W
01/10/2026  E2.0 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

&&

DAN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1049 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Snow             Anchorage (Rabbit Creek 61.07N 149.77W
01/10/2026  M5.3 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            5.3 inches of snow measured on the snow
            table overnight and today. Still lightly
            snowing at time of measurement.

&&

DAN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1050 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     Snow             1 E Eagle River         61.32N 149.54W
01/10/2026  M3.1 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            3.1 inches storm total measured since Friday
            night through 8:30PM Saturday evening.

&&

DAN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1052 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     Snow             5 E Valdez              61.11N 146.22W
01/10/2026  M5.5 Inch        Chugach            AK   Public

            5.5 inches measured with calm winds,
            overcast skies with snow currently falling,
            and a temperatures of 21.9 F at time of
            measurement.

&&

DAN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1053 PM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Snow             16 E Chickaloon         61.80N 147.98W
01/10/2026  M1.5 Inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

            1.5 inches of snow measured from 9AM Jan. 9
            through 9AM Jan 10 - 24 hr total.

&&

DAN