Small Craft Advisory 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 AM AKST Wed Feb 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday night)...

The upper level pattern has changed very little, with the
dominant feature a large vertically stacked low over the North
Pacific, anchoring a high amplitude trough. A strong meridional
jet streak and atmospheric river is positioned over the far east
Pacific, pointed toward Southeast Alaska. Similar to yesterday, a
strong short-wave trough is tracking northward into the Gulf of
Alaska and beginning to elongate as a portion of the short-wave
heads north toward Yakutat and a portion rotates westward across
the Gulf around the north side of the Pacific low circulation. A
surface low is also tracking westward across the southern Gulf,
with an occluded front extending ENE from the low beginning to
progress north and west across the Gulf waters.

Meanwhile, the short-wave troughs responsible for Southcentral
precipitation yesterday through last night are exiting to the
north with a short-wave ridge building in behind them.
Precipitation is lingering along the western Susitna Valley as
well as Prince William Sound due to upslope flow. Otherwise, dry
conditions prevail across the region. Gusty south to east winds
pushed onshore of Southcentral last evening through the overnight
hours and are diminishing as flow begins to shift ahead of the
front crossing the Gulf. The winds mixed down warmer air from
aloft, leading to some balmy temperatures, with 40s across much of
the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Matanuska Valley.
Temperatures will fall back into the 30s as winds die down this
morning.

Model guidance has really been struggling in this pattern,
particularly with systems tracking up from the Pacific. Guidance
has now converged upon a common solution with the features
discussed above and forecast confidence is now above average for
the next couple days. The front in the Gulf will move to the
northern to western Gulf (and Kodiak Island) later today, bringing
another round of low elevation rain, mountain snow, and strong
winds this afternoon. The front will elongate and rapidly weaken
as it pushes onshore this evening. The upper level short-wave will
split into multiple separate short-waves and quickly exit to the
north and west tonight. With particularly weak forcing over
Southcentral, inland areas will remain mostly dry. The exception
is the Copper River Basin where some light snow could briefly
spread inland tonight.

The upper low in the North Pacific will open into a trough, track
up to the Gulf tonight and and follow closely behind then weaken
as it rotates northwestward across southern Alaska on Thursday.
This will reinforce precipitation along the coast while inland
areas remain dry. There is a chance of light precipitation
spreading inland as the trough exits Thursday night, primarily
over the western Susitna Valley. Warm temperatures will continue
across the region today and tomorrow. Marginally cooler air aloft
will arrive Thursday night, leading to falling snow levels.

By Friday, the long-wave trough remains in place, but lacks a
dominant feature. No surprise, models are all over the place with
placement of weaker short-waves. No doubt, short-waves and another
surface low will move up from the Pacific and into the Gulf. The
latest model guidance depicts weak features remaining down over
the Gulf. It remains to be seen how much precipitation and wind
will affect Kodiak and the Gulf coast. Confidence is higher that
inland portions of Southcentral will be dry with marginally cooler
temperatures.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...

A wave of precipitation associated with a North Pacific low is
currently lifting northwest across Bristol Bay, bringing light
snow to communities from Dillingham to Igiugig. By this afternoon,
this band will move on from the area and bring a wintry mix to
the Kuskokwim Delta through the evening. Precipitation type should
remain primarily as snow, but it is possible some light freezing
rain mixes in on the back end of this wave before diminishing
overnight.

The aforementioned low will lift into the Bering Sea on Thursday,
maintaining moisture over the southern Alaska Peninsula, Aleutian
Chain, and Pribilof Islands. There is potential for freezing rain
over the Pribilof Islands on Thursday as warm air attempts to
nudge in aloft. However, the encroaching sea ice pack will help
create a cooler more continental air mass, potentially resulting
in an all-snow precipitation type. Meanwhile, strong northerly
flow and enhanced snow showers will persist for Adak and Atka.
Gusty winds combined with snow showers may periodically reduce
visibilities into Friday morning. The front from a strong
Kamchatka low begins impacting the Western Aleutians Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

This weekend, a broad, complex low pressure system will be
centered several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island, while a
deeper more consolidated low will be situated between Kamchatka
and the western Aleutians. Between these lows, a fairly sharp
ridge extends north across the Aleutians into the central Bering
Sea. Deep longwave troughing over the far western Bering Sea will
promote a much stormier pattern through the weekend into early
next week. The complex low south of Kodiak Island lifts into the
Gulf through the weekend, bringing wet, rainy weather along the
coast from the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula up to the
north Gulf coast. As the low elongates and slides toward Southeast
Alaska on Sunday and Monday, moisture and upper level troughing
will nudge in over Southcentral, which may allow precipitation to
spread into the region. The best chances for this will be over the
Copper River Basin, where some snow showers will be possible.
Further west, there are lower chances for precipitation, but
warmer temperatures in the low-levels suggest that there is a
greater chance that this precipitation would fall as rain or
freezing rain.

A more significant feature tracks up from the North Pacific into
the vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Sunday.
There is an increasing chance that the compact, moderately-deep
low brings wind gusts as high as 75 mph to a small portion of the
Aleutian Chain or Alaska Peninsula, most likely between Adak and
Nelson Lagoon, as it lifts into the Bering Sea with an associated
sting jet on its southern side. As the low quickly occludes and
loses its tap of warm air as it moves north, precipitation quickly
shifts from rain along the Aleutians to snow for Southwest Alaska
and the Pribilof Islands on Monday. This would be easily blown
around by the low as it spins down, leading to the potential for a
period of significantly reduced visibility. There is increasing
confidence that the low tracks into the Bering Sea and produces
the aforementioned impacts, compared to yesterday.

The active storm track continues into next week with another deep
low looking to track along the Aleutians or lift into the Bering
Sea on Monday and Tuesday. This has potential to produce another
round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind gusts
in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday, the low's front likely reaches
Southwest Alaska. With more moisture associated with this low,
this second system is likely to bring more precipitation than the
first. The low appears slightly warmer than the first, but most
locations in Southwest Alaska can expect mostly snow. Some
locations near the coast could experience rain, however. Weather
in the Gulf of Alaska settles down early next week as these deep
lows help to build a ridge over the Gulf. Though, light
precipitation is still expected for the coast and marine areas in
the form of upslope showers and weakening fronts move into the
area.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period. An area of low pressure has lifted across the Barren
Islands and into the Western Alaska Range this morning, which has
briefly tightened the pressure gradient over the region. Southeast
winds gusting between 25 and 30 knots have likely peaked and will
steadily diminish through 18z as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Skies begin to clear thereafter along with winds shifting back to
northerly.

&&