Gale Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

606 
FZAK52 PAFC 252321
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-261245-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 330 nm SE of Atka moves to 370 nm SE of Sand Point 
at 978 mb Mon afternoon and dips into the N. Pacific afterwards. A
968 mb low arrives at 390 nm SW of Shemya and remains stationary
through Tue afternoon. Its front pushes into the Western 
Aleutians through Tue afternoon. A 975 mb low arrives 340nm S of 
Atka Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-261245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-261245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ752-261245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ753-261245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ754-261245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ755-261245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ756-261245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ757-261245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ758-261245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ759-261245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ770-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ772-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-261245-
Unalaska Bay-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ774-261245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ775-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ776-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ777-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ778-261245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ780-261245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ781-261245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ782-261245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ783-261245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ784-261245-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ785-261245-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ786-261245-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ787-261245-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-261245-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ760-261245-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ761-261245-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ762-261245-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ763-261245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...N wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ764-261245-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-261245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ767-261245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
221 PM AKST Sun Jan 25 2026

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 PM AKST Sat Jan 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The ridge continues to be stretched by the two upper troughs to
the northeast and the southwest. As a result, a large col has
formed over Southern Alaska, keeping conditions drier and
calmer. This means that the rest of the day will be quite similar
to the previous few days, mostly sunny during the day with calm
winds for most of Southcentral. There may be periods of fog/low
stratus during the night, particularly along the Gulf Coast, North
Cook Inlet around Anchorage, and the Copper River Basin. Kodiak
Island continues to see locally heavy precipitation due to a
shortwave and a good fetch of moisture. Additional precipitation
in Kodiak City will be around 1 to 1.5 inches. Precipitation type
will be mostly rain with some rain/snow at higher elevations. This
precipitation will slowly taper off through Sunday night.

The bigger story is the shortwave moving into the Southcentral
Mainland on Monday. The shortwave will pull in moisture up from
the Gulf and allow for snowfall across Southcentral including the
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley, and the Copper
River Basin. An upper low over Western Alaska is aiding in
steering the moisture up the Cook Inlet. The timing for when
snowfall will start is a bit uncertain, but the current thinking
is that it will begin sometime Monday morning for Anchorage and
the Kenai Peninsula. There will be two waves of snow, with the
second push bringing more widespread snowfall Monday night into
Tuesday. This second round of snow will be when the Copper River
Basin sees its most snowfall. Due to the nature of the flow aloft
being southwesterly, it is likely that the band of snow will be
more prominent over the Matanuska Valley around Palmer. 4 to 8
inches of snowfall is possible in Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley with locally higher amounts possible closer to Hatcher
Pass. Valdez and Thompson Pass will see heavy snowfall with
Thompson Pass receiving greater amounts. The Copper River Basin
could also see 4 to 8 inches of snowfall. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding accumulations and a slight shift
in upper level features could mean more or less snowfall. The
ECMWF model has the upper low much farther east, resulting in much
low snow accumulations.

-JAR

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front lifting into Southwest Alaska brings a chance for freezing
rain to the northern Bristol Bay coast, Western Capes, and
Kuskokwim Delta coast this evening through Sunday morning. A
Special Weather Statement is in effect for the aforementioned
areas for a light glaze to a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation, with the higher amounts expected along the northern
Bristol Bay coast. Freezing rain falling onto frozen or snow-
covered ground is likely to create difficult travel conditions.
Elsewhere across Southwest Alaska is expected to remain mostly
dry. Widespread rainfall will persist across the Aleutians and
Bering Sea today, becoming lighter and more isolated by late
Sunday into Monday morning. Widespread small craft winds will
continue across the Bering Sea, with a large area of gales moving
into the northern Bering by Monday morning.

A much colder Arctic airmass moves over Southwest Alaska early
next week, bringing bitterly cold wind chills across the Southwest
Mainland and areas of heavy freezing spray along and south of the
ice edge.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The persistent upper level trough will persist over Kamchatka and
the western Bering Sea through next week. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift in succession from the North
Pacific and across the western Bering, keeping windy and wet
weather conditions through the Western and Central Aleutians.

The upper level ridge that has been comfortably sitting over
Mainland Alaska looks to flatten early in the week as an Arctic
low from the Yukon moves across northern Alaska to the YK Delta by
midweek. Cold temperatures with single digits above and below
zero appear likely for Southwest Alaska with windchills
approaching minus 30 degrees for some locations. Offshore,
easterly flow at the surface seems likely which raises concerns
for heavy to extreme freezing spray along the ice edge in northern
and eastern Bering Sea. Confidence is increasing for the Arctic
low marching west and phasing with the main trough over the Bering
Sea through the rest of the week. The flattening high pressure
ridge over southern Alaska, could rebuild across from the AlCan
border west, but upper level southerly flow dominating the
Mainland seems more probable. This would allow for embedded lows
within this flow to track into Southcentral. Model agreement is
still poor for the later half of next week. Precipitation along
the coast seems very likely, but details would depend on the exact
track as its interaction with terrain could aid in the
enhancement or drying of the atmosphere in specific locations.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Another persistence forecast is expected with potential
fog (IFR to LIFR visibility and ceilings) redeveloping overnight
through Sunday morning. The timing of densest fog remains a
challenge, but would more likely occur similar to previous nights,
12 to 20Z. Otherwise, expect clear skies in VFR. Precipitation
chances look to increase beginning Sunday night with snow in the
vicinity after 02Z Mon, becoming likely after 06Z Mon.

&&