Gale Warning 78, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A transient ridge of high pressure over Southcentral overnight
will retreat to the northeast today as the next storm system
approaches from the south. This morning, a warm front associated
with a deepening North Pacific low well south of the Alaska
Peninsula will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska. As it does,
snow will will develop over Kodiak Island early this morning
before easterly winds increase, driving temperatures above 32F and
changing snow over to rain.

This front will make it to the coast by this afternoon, spreading
snow over the Kenai Peninsula and across the Anchorage Bowl and
Mat-Su Valleys by late morning. Snowfall will generally be light,
on the order of up to 2 inches of snow, with most locations seeing
closer to an inch. Along the immediate coast of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, snow is expected to change to rain by mid afternoon
Saturday as an easterly wind advects warmer air into locations
such as Whittier and Portage.

There will be a break in the precipitation by late Saturday
afternoon before the aforementioned low drives north, bringing
with it another round of precipitation. Temperatures aloft will
warm through the evening and overnight hours, especially across
the Kenai Peninsula and locations in the lee of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains, resulting in the wintry mix of precipitation
once again. Freezing rain and snow is likely for a period of time
from Anchor Point north to Wasilla Saturday night through early
Sunday morning. Right now, it looks like areas along the Sterling
Highway from Anchor Point to Kenai may have the best chance for
prolonged freezing rain, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation. A strengthening southeasterly flow aloft should push
the bulk of this wintry mix to the far western Susitna Valley by
Sunday morning, then lifting north along the Alaska Range by
Sunday afternoon as the low moves inland and weakens.

By Monday, a warm ridge will begin to set up over the state,
leading to a return of a much quieter weather pattern.

-TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

This morning, an upper-level shortwave and weak surface low lift
north towards the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) between the Shumagin
Islands and Kodiak Island. The surface low will help to spread
precipitation, from south-to-north, today along much of the AKPEN.
While precipitation could start out as a quick period of wet snow
from Chignik to King Salmon, warmer air moves in from the North
Pacific and changes precipitation over to rain/snow mix or plain
rain by late morning or early afternoon before it ends. Light
precipitation makes it as far north as the Kuskokwim Valley and
Interior Bristol Bay by late morning or early afternoon in the
form of mostly snow in the Kuskokwim Valley, rain or rain/snow mix
across the Iliamna area, and snow turning to rain/snow mix across
much of Bristol Bay. The majority of precipitation from this
system will remain across Kodiak Island, Cook Inlet, and the Gulf
of Alaska.

Elsewhere, southerly flow continues across the eastern Bering and
through the southern AKPEN today as rain and or rain/snow mix
continues through today. A weak front moves to the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and portions of coastal Bristol Bay tonight. The Kuskokwim
Delta Coast will see mostly snow from this evening while the
Western Capes and coastal Bristol Bay will see rain/snow mix as
warmer air works in. There is the possibility of some very light
freezing drizzle across the Dillingham area this evening as
precipitation encroaches on the area. This activity winds down
Sunday morning, as the Interior Kuskokwim Delta sees light snow
showers with what is left of the front.

Farther out west, a negatively tilted upper-level trough,
anchored by an upper-level low in the western Bering, extends
across the Western and Central Aleutians, including Adak and Atka
this morning. A surface low spins in the western Bering as it
retrogrades back to west through today. Its front moves over the
Pribilof Islands this morning as another shortwave helps to spin
up another low in the North Pacific south of Nikolski today. This
low will help to maintain light precipitation across the Pribilofs
through much of the day with light rain or light rain/snow mix
also continuing for Nikolski and Unalaska. Two more North Pacific
lows will lift northward into the western Bering, one Sunday into
Sunday evening and one Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, will
affect mostly the Central Aleutians (Adak and Atka) with more
rain and or rain/snow mix as well as gale-force winds in the
marine zones near those areas. Scattered snow showers on the
backside of each system are possible along the Western Aleutians
including Shemya.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. Seasonable and
relatively quieter weather seems likely. A few surface lows may
make it into the Gulf of Alaska, but should remain confined to the
immediate coastline and potentially Kodiak Island. Similar is
possible for the Alaska Peninsula and southwestern coast. Farther
west though, low pressure will prevail with embedded surface lows
lifting north into the Bering Sea. Gale to storm force winds
possible. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians
and Bering Sea, keeping precipitation and winds in the Bering Sea
for most of next week. However, the main foreseeable challenge
would be with the timing of each low that lifts north across the
area.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist. Conditions will remain
primarily VFR, but there is a chance for MVFR conditions briefly
midday as a trough moves overhead with light snowfall.

&&