Gale Warning 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The short term forecast for Southcentral begins with ridging in
the Gulf of Alaska. This is allowing for lighter winds and
clearer skies across the mainland. However, some areas of cloud
cover remains, which may allow for overnight temperatures to
remain above zero. A low arrives into the Gulf by Tuesday, which
will bring gusty winds and precipitation to the coast. The low
looks to take an eastern track, onshoring somewhere around
Yakutat. Confidence in this scenario is increasing which is a
change from yesterday's thinking which had the low track more to
the west. With the east track, snowfall across the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su Valley is expected to be on
the lesser side (2 to 3 inches). Most snowfall will fall in
Eastern Prince William Sound including Valdez and Thompson Pass.
Gusty winds are also possible in Thompson Pass, which could cause
some blowing and drifting snow at times. After the low passes, a
trailing trough will allow for more snow chances on Wednesday
morning of a similar intensity as Tuesday's event. Wind speeds
will also increase as the front from the trough lifts onshore.

After this point by Wednesday evening, some ridging builds into
the Gulf, which will decrease winds and precipitation chances.
This will be short lived as an atmospheric river rises into
Southcentral. A low will coincide with this atmospheric river and
will move somewhere west of Kodiak Island. There is much
uncertainty with this event, but what is known is that much warmer
air will rise into Southcentral, likely driving temperatures into
the positive 30s and potentially even the 40s by the end of the
week. Heavy precipitation is also likely with this event, but it
is not clear exactly what type of precipitation that will be.

-JAR

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

* A resurgence of cold air will bring bitterly cold temperatures
  and wind chills to Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
  through about Thursday. Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme
  Cold Warnings are in effect.

* Gusty northerly winds and snow showers continue across the
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands through midweek, leading to
  periods of minor visibility reductions in blowing snow.

* As early as late Wednesday night, an incoming warm and wet storm
  system could bring the potential for freezing rain and rain to
  parts of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska.

...Active Advisories and Warnings...

* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Central
  Aleutians until 9AM Thursday.

* An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the western
  Kuskokwim Valley until 6PM AKST Thursday.

* An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for the central Alaska
  Peninsula including Port Heiden until 6PM AKST Thursday.

* A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from the southern
  Alaska Peninsula to mainland Southwest Alaska until 6PM AKST
  Thursday.

Discussion:

Aloft, the western domain continues to be comprised of a lifting
arctic trough over mainland Alaska and a ridge anchored over the
Western Bering Sea, with the mean zonal flow oriented almost north
to south. Embedded in this flow is a weak shortwave dropping
southward and nearing the Pribilof Islands this afternoon, with a
wave of low pressure forming at the surface west of the Pribilof
Islands and moving southward towards the Central Aleutians. This
system makes its way to the Adak area Tuesday morning. On the
heels of this low is a secondary 500 mb shortwave dropping
southward from the Bering Strait to west of the Pribilofs, and
then southward to the Central Aleutians. All model guidance
suggests this system will be somewhat stronger than the first, and
thus will be the more impactful of the two for blowing snow
concerns. The bigger story here is that another arctic trough at
around this time begins to dig southward, which will reinforce a
bitterly cold airmass across the western domain. This airmass will
be fairly short lived, however, as the trough takes a more
positive tilt and becomes situated west of intense ridging
building over the Gulf, which will set the stage for a potential
atmospheric river event heading into Thursday. This would
dramatically warm temperatures to near or above freezing across
Southwest Alaska due to warm air advection that would accompany
the low, which in turn would introduce precipitation type issues.
A large amount of precipitation would also fall due to the large
fetch of moisture being brought up from the tropics and
subtropics. There is still much uncertainty with this scenario,
but the signal is there for a signficiant pattern change heading
into late week.

-AM/KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast begins with an amplified pattern over much
of Alaska. A broad trough will be in place over the central
Bering on Friday with strong southerly flow downstream of the
trough, extending from the North Pacific up into Southcentral
Alaska. Potential impacts from this atmospheric river will entail
gusty winds into the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound,
widespread rain showers into the coast, heavy snow at higher
elevations, and a significant warm up in temperatures across all
of Southcentral. The amplified pattern begins to break down on
Saturday with a ridge of high pressure building over the eastern
Bering and Southwest Alaska. A deepening trough west of the
Aleutians will serve to reinforce downstream ridging through the
end of the long term period early next week.

Models continue to exhibit small differences with the overall
strength and track of the low Thursday into Friday, and there is
still potential for changes to the forecast over the next 48
hours. However, overall confidence is increasing that the
strongest winds will occur offshore of the Southcentral Coast from
Kayak Island into Prince William Sound. Gales with gusts to 50+
knots are currently forecast. If the low on Thursday takes a track
further north, the potential would increase for high winds
through the Eastern Turnagain Arm lower elevations. Currently, the
highest inland winds are forecast to remain over the mountains.

One last area of concern will be across the Central Aleutians
early on Friday. A vigorous area of low pressure is progged to
lift into the region with the potential for hurricane force gusts.
This low is followed up with a large frontal system into the
western Bering and Aleutians Sunday into Monday.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Drier air continues to work in aloft from the southwest
this afternoon as surface winds remain light and out of the north
to northeast. VFR ceilings will continue into the late this
evening.

A shortwave lifts northward across the Gulf overnight bringing a
return to MVFR conditions. Light snow begins near 15Z Tuesday and
continues through 00Z Wednesday. After a break Wednesday evening,
light snow returns 12Z Wednesday and continues into 00Z Thursday.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
953 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

AKZ771-772-131500-
Kodiak Island Northeast-Kodiak Island Southwest-
Including the cities of Kodiak City, Port Lions, Ouzinkie,
Old Harbor, Akhiok, Karluk, and Larsen Bay
953 PM AKST Mon Jan 12 2026

...SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

An area of low pressure moving north along the eastern coast of
Kodiak Island overnight will bring a round of snow and gusty winds
through Tuesday. Snow falling Monday evening will become steadier
overnight before tapering off Tuesday morning. Winds will also
increase overnight and Tuesday morning with gusts up to 25 mph
possible. Visibilities may drop to as low as one mile or less at
times due to the combination of snow and gusty winds.